The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Rams vs. Lions
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Lions vs. Rams, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. To build the best lineups possible, be sure to check out LineupHQ, which is my favorite NFL DFS optimizer in the industry.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Rams vs. Lions
The Player Pick ‘Em selections are HOT! We are 2-0 to start the season. As always, you can find my favorite prop bet for the game at the bottom of this breakdown. If you are looking for more bets, consider joining us over at Scores And Odds. We have picks up for every major sport. The NFL crew was up over 60 units last season.
We’ve been spoiled with two great primetime games already this season (Chiefs/Ravens, Eagles/Packers), and we could have another one on Sunday night. This is a rematch of last year’s playoff game. The Lions were narrowly able to beat the Rams in that one and get to face them at home in the dome once again. Both of these teams are playoff hopefuls, so it should be a competitive game throughout. The spread is set at 4.5 points and the total is set at 52.5 points (highest of the week).
If you are reading this before the main slate finishes, best of luck in your contests. If you are reading this after the main slate, I hope your bankroll is more padded than it was at the start of the day. Let’s dive into this matchup between the Lions and Rams.
Key Injuries
Tyler Higbee – Out
Detroit Lions Preview
Hopes were high in Detroit two seasons ago. Hopes were even higher in Detroit last season. Hopes are even higher in Detroit this season. Dan Campbell and the Lions have a win total of 10.5 for the season and have the third best odds to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They were extremely close to accomplishing that feat last season, as they narrowly lost in the Conference Championship to the Niners.
Jared Goff has long been known as a quarterback who plays well at home and indoors. He gets both of those in his season debut against the Rams, who were 21st in DVOA against the pass and 26th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last season. The matchup gets even better when you consider that Aaron Donald retired and that defensive coordinator Raheem Morris is no longer with the team. While I won’t be using Goff at MVP/CPT (because of his lack of rushing upside), he’s one of the best UTIL targets on the slate.
If Goff has a big game (which is expected given the situation), one of his pass catchers will likely outscore him when it comes to DFS. Amon-Ra St. Brown had one of the highest floor/ceiling combos of any wide receiver in the NFL last season and had 7 receptions for 110 yards in the playoff game against the Rams last season. Goff has a slightly higher floor than the Sun God, but we have St. Brown with higher median and ceiling projections.
With Josh Reynolds gone, Jameson Williams is now the clear WR2 in Detroit. He’s a deep threat who saw a consistently increasing target share in the second half of last season. Against an old and slow secondary, this is a potential blow up spot for Williams. Kalif Raymond will round out three receiver sets. While I don’t have as much conviction in him as the other two Detroit receivers, he’s firmly in play thanks to a cheap price point on DraftKings ($2,800). The Rams struggled against tight ends last season (7th most fantasy points allowed) and should be just as bad this season. Sam LaPorta is in the no man’s land of pricing, which could keep ownership to a reasonable level.
There was some concern about the hamstring injury to Jahmyr Gibbs, but he’s been able to practice in full this week and wasn’t listed on the final injury report. While David Montgomery could always step in and vulture the touchdowns, it’s hard to argue against the spot for this rushing attack. The Lions might have the best run blocking unit in football, and the Rams don’t exactly have a lot of play makers on defense. I generally try to avoid targeting two running backs from the same team in the same lineup given the fact that they don’t correlate, but I’m toying with the idea of using Gibbs and Montgomery together in a lineup or two for this slate.
This is a sneaky spot for the Lions’ defense. They seem to get a little better each year, and the Rams aren’t at full strength on the offensive line. Add in a potentially favorable game script, and we could have plenty of obvious passing downs for the Rams. Kicker John Bates is viable, especially in cash games since we are looking to maximize the floor of our lineup.
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Los Angeles Rams Preview
It will be interesting to see how the Rams fare this year. The retirement of Aaron Donald certainly isn’t going to help on the defensive side of the ball, but the team will always be competitive with Sean McVay at coach and Matthew Stafford at quarterback. One thing is for sure — this team will have to put up a lot of points to win football games this season. While the Lions should have a good defense this season, I have no concerns about Los Angeles moving the ball in this Sunday night matchup. In 2023, the Lions were 15th in DVOA against the pass while allowing the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Similar to Goff, I prefer using Stafford as a UTIL. The thought process is simple — if he has a big game, it will be through the air because he doesn’t run much at this point of his career. And if he has a big game through the air, one of his wideouts will likely have a bigger fantasy outing.
One of the toughest decision points of the slate is deciding to play Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, or both. I am going to make a rule in LineupHQ to include at least one of these two in every lineup build. The way I see it, the Rams aren’t going to be able to put up points unless at least one of their star receivers has a big game. And if the Rams fall behind early, they will be forced to air it out in the second half. For those wondering, garbage time production counts the same as production in competitive games. With Detroit’s vaunted pass rush, I expect a lot of short passes from Stafford in this one. Kupp and Nacua both run a nice mixture of short and deep routes. I’ll give Kupp a slight edge because he hasn’t dealt with a knee injury like Nacua this offseason, but the two are nearly identical plays on paper (we have them projected within a half a point).
Demarcus Robinson came alive in the second half of last season and is a contrarian way to get exposure to this passing attack. He’s not cheap enough to use in stars and scrubs builds, so he’s unlikely to garner much ownership. If Nacua is limited or if the Lions sell out to stop the other two receivers, Robinson could benefit. The Rams love to play three-receiver sets, which is also good for Robinson. With Tyler Higbee out, Colby Parkinson is expected to play most snaps as the TE1 for the Rams. He’s cheap on DraftKings ($3,200) and is facing a team that gave up the 9th most fantasy points to tight ends last season.
One of the big fantasy questions heading into the season is the role for Kyren Williams. After being one of the biggest workhorse running backs in the NFL last season, the Rams spent draft capital to bring in Blake Corum. McVay typically likes to lean on one running back, but Corum should cut into the role of Williams throughout the course of the season. Whether that happens in Week 1 remains to be seen. Ultimately, I expect Williams to see the bulk of the work at running back. We know McVay and Stafford both trust him, especially down near the goal line. I’ll take a wait-and-see approach with Corum, as he’s not exactly cheap on this slate.
Fluke plays can always happen in the NFL, but I don’t have much interest in this undermanned Rams defense. I generally like kickers for cash games in showdown, but the Rams are underdogs, and this will be the first career game for Joshua Karty.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Similar to the first two primetime games of the season, I don’t plan to build any onslaught stacks (5-1 for one team). If this game does turn into a blowout, it will likely be the Lions building a big lead. If that happens, we are going to see a lot of receptions for the Rams’ wideouts. I prefer the balanced builds over the full stacks. Additionally, given the lack of rushing upside for both of these quarterbacks, I will be avoiding them at MVP and CPT (at least in tournaments).
Lions vs. Rams DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 20.84 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.89 | $16,000 | 1.30 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 19.69 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 2.19 | $14,000 | 1.41 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 18.62 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 2.12 | $13,500 | 1.38 |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 18.51 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.89 | $15,500 | 1.19 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | WR | 18.33 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.91 | $10,000 | 1.83 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 15.71 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.87 | $11,500 | 1.37 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 15.47 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.93 | $12,000 | 1.29 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 14.52 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.96 | $10,500 | 1.38 |
| David Montgomery | DET | RB | 12.97 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.97 | $9,500 | 1.37 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 10.31 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.91 | $9,500 | 1.09 |
| Jake Bates | DET | K | 8.08 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.76 | $9,000 | 0.90 |
| Joshua Karty | LAR | K | 7.80 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.77 | $9,000 | 0.87 |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 7.57 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 2.37 | $6,500 | 1.16 |
| Demarcus Robinson | LAR | WR | 7.54 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.51 | $7,000 | 1.08 |
| Blake Corum | LAR | RB | 6.29 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.31 | $8,000 | 0.79 |
| Lions | DET | DST | 6.23 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.56 | $8,500 | 0.73 |
| Kalif Raymond | DET | WR | 5.70 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.04 | $7,500 | 0.76 |
| Rams | LAR | DST | 5.52 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.53 | $8,500 | 0.65 |
| Brock Wright | DET | TE | 2.71 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.71 | $7,000 | 0.39 |
| Davis Allen | LAR | TE | 2.13 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.33 | $6,000 | 0.36 |
| Jordan Whittington | LAR | WR | 1.32 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.66 | $6,000 | 0.22 |
| Craig Reynolds | DET | RB | 1.26 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 0.42 | $8,000 | 0.16 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Demarcus Robinson: $5,000 DK / $7,000 FD
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both going to be popular because they both can lead the slate in fantasy points. Colby Parkinson is also going to be popular because he’s underpriced for his projected role (Tyler Higbee is out). This will leave Robinson with low ownership. The game script sets up well for the Rams’ passing attack, and the Lions are going to focus most of their defensive attention on Kupp and Nacua. Robinson is an excellent sleeper in tournaments, especially if you are building multiple lineups.
Lions vs. Rams Player Pick ‘Em
Season Pick ‘Em Record: 2-0
Jameson Williams more than 38.5 receiving yards (1.63x) – Sleeper Fantasy
With Josh Reynolds gone, Williams should be close to an every-down player in this offense. We saw his role grow in the second half of last season, and now he doesn’t have much competition for snaps. There’s still a lot of target competition in Detroit, but it shouldn’t take much for him to top this 38.5 yard total. The Rams’ secondary is shaky at best, and Goff has excellent splits indoors throughout his career.
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