The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Niners vs. Lions
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Niners vs. Lions, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Niners vs. Lions
Whether you are reading this before the Chiefs-Ravens game or right after, I hope this Sunday is treating you well. We have a trip to the Super Bowl on the line in tonight’s game between the Lions and Niners. These teams have taken different paths to get to this point, as the Lions were able to secure a second home game thanks to the Cowboys losing to the Packers. Detroit was lucky to escape the first round against the Rams but felt in control the entire way against the Buccaneers. The Niners have the top seed in the NFC, so they’ve only played one playoff game so far, and they could have easily lost against the Packers. Given the talent of these two teams and the fact the game is in San Francisco, it feels like a rout is possible. However, we should never count out a Dan Campbell-coached team.
Key Injuries
Kalif Raymond – Questionable
San Francisco 49ers Preview
We haven’t seen an uber-efficient game from Brock Purdy in quite some time. He was bad against the Ravens in primetime in Week 16, he didn’t do much in a great matchup against the Commanders in Week 17, he didn’t play in Week 18, and he struggled in the Divisional Round until that final touchdown drive. I’m not concerned in the slightest, as two of those games were in the rain where he has trouble gripping the ball. That won’t be a problem with good weather on tap tonight in San Francisco. He also draws the best matchup of the four quarterbacks, as the Lions are 25th in EPA against the pass and 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Christian McCaffrey has an extremely tough matchup. The Lions are a top-five run defense and have allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. They’ve held Kyren Williams and Rachaad White in check in the first 2 games of the playoffs, but I think Detroit could have a difficult time keeping C-Mac in check. This rushing attack has been matchup-proof all season when Trent Williams has been in the lineup, and C-Mac has such big roles in the passing game and near the goal line that it’s hard to envision him having a bad game. I’m prioritizing him in showdown, but I suppose if you think he only puts up 12-15 fantasy points, a fade would give you a unique roster construction.
Deebo Samuel was only able to play a handful of snaps last week before leaving the game with a shoulder injury. He practiced on a limited basis early in the week and was then taken off the injury report completely. Many DFS players are hesitant to target those coming back from injury, so it will be interesting to see his ownership on this single-game slate. If we assume he’s close to 100%, he’s an elite play against this beatable secondary. Brandon Aiyuk seems to have less risk, as we don’t have to worry about him being a decoy or re-aggravating the injury. He hasn’t had big target games recently but has topped 20 fantasy points 7 times already this season.
Jauan Jennings would typically be a great game theory play in this spot. Samuel isn’t on the injury report, but there’s a chance he’s limited or gets hurt again. Jennings would be the biggest beneficiary in his absence. However, the sites had to plan for Samuel potentially being out and they priced Jennings up. He’ll need to run extremely well to meet his salary-based expectations. George Kittle is one of the most volatile players in the NFL from a fantasy standpoint. If you pull up his game log, you’ll see a lot of 20+ fantasy points outings and a lot of games where he failed to get 10 fantasy points. He draws a nice matchup against the Lions, who are 24th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
The Niners’ defense is firmly in play here. While the Lions have a very good offensive line, the Niners get a lot of pressure on the quarterback. If their offense can build up a lead early and force the Lions to air it out, I could see the defense generating some turnovers. Kicker Jake Moody is a strong option in all formats.
Detroit Lions Preview
Jared Goff has looked skittish in big moments throughout his career but has been a cool customer in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He seems to have more confidence in himself and his receivers. He’ll need a lot of that tonight if he’s going to pull off an upset on the road against the Niners. While Goff tends to be a lot better indoors, at least this game isn’t going to be played in bad weather. It’s still a tough spot, as the Niners are 4th in both pressure rate and DVOA against the pass. I’m fine using Goff on this showdown slate, but he’s best used as a FLEX rather than a CPT or MVP.
David Montgomery has out-snapped (55% to 35%) and out-touched (29 to 25 in opportunities) Jahmyr Gibbs in the first 2 games of the playoffs. However, the gap narrowed last week against the Buccaneers, and Gibbs has been the more explosive back of the two. Given the fact that the best way to move the ball against the Niners is on the ground (26th in EPA against the run), I expect to see a lot of runs early in this game. However, if the defense is unable to stop the Niners and the Lions find themselves trailing, they might be forced to air it out more in the second half. This would benefit Gibbs more than Montgomery. This is a rare spot where I don’t mind using both running backs in the same lineup, but I prefer Gibbs over D-Mont if choosing between the two. He should have a big role regardless of the game script.
Given the way my roster construction is shaping up, I am unfortunately going to be underweight on Amon-Ra St. Brown on the full slate and the showdown slate. I prefer the expensive players on the Niners’ side of the ball. This doesn’t mean ARSB can’t find his way onto the optimal lineup. He’s had at least 9 targets in 6 of his last 7 games and has caught a touchdown in 5 of his last 6 games. With Kalif Raymond out, Josh Reynolds (83%) and Jameson Williams (76%) have dominated the route share at WR2 and WR3 in the first 2 games of the playoffs. Reynolds has been the more productive of the two, but Williams will get his chances as well. On a slate with very little value, both are strong options. Sam LaPorta has scored a touchdown in each of the last 2 games and has a slightly better matchup on paper than the receivers.
Fluke plays can always happen in the NFL and Brock Purdy has made some questionable decisions in recent weeks, so there’s at least a path for the Lions’ defense to have a nice game. With that said, they haven’t been able to stop anyone through the air and are facing one of the best offenses in football. I’ll be underweight on kicker Michael Badgley due to game script concerns.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Niners-Lions DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 27.80 | $12,600 | $18,900 | 2.21 | $17,500 | 1.59 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 22.59 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 2.26 | $15,000 | 1.51 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 21.49 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.95 | $14,500 | 1.48 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 18.10 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 2.10 | $12,000 | 1.51 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 16.79 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.75 | $14,000 | 1.20 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 14.95 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.63 | $12,500 | 1.20 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 13.88 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 2.04 | $11,000 | 1.26 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 13.83 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.57 | $13,000 | 1.06 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 12.84 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.83 | $10,500 | 1.22 |
| David Montgomery | DET | RB | 10.30 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.84 | $10,000 | 1.03 |
| Jake Moody | SF | K | 8.36 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.74 | $9,000 | 0.93 |
| Josh Reynolds | DET | WR | 8.21 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.87 | $9,500 | 0.86 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 7.60 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 2.00 | $8,000 | 0.95 |
| Michael Badgley | DET | K | 6.94 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.39 | $9,000 | 0.77 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 6.28 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.50 | $9,500 | 0.66 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 4.94 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 0.95 | $8,500 | 0.58 |
| Lions | DET | DST | 4.66 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.46 | $8,500 | 0.55 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 2.12 | $800 | $1,200 | 2.65 | $6,000 | 0.35 |
| Elijah Mitchell | SF | RB | 1.28 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 0.58 | $7,500 | 0.17 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | SF | WR | 1.00 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 0.56 | $5,500 | 0.18 |
Fantasy Sleepers
- Jameson Williams: $3,800 DK / $5,700 FD
After busting as the chalk in both of the last two weeks (3.9 and 5.5 fantasy points), I hope people are growing tired of targeting Williams in DFS. I will be going right back to the well, as the Lions are 7.5-point underdogs in this one. It’s tough to beat San Francisco over the middle, but you can beat them outside now and then. Perhaps he gets a couple of targets down the field in this game. All it takes is one.
Niners vs. Lions Player Pick’em
- Jameson Williams more than 29.5 receiving yards (1.75x) – Sleeper
I’m doubling down on Williams here. I expect the Lions to run the ball early and use play-action to take a couple of deep shots down the field. I’ll go out on a limb and say Williams hits this number in one play.
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