The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Packers vs. Chiefs
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Packers vs. Chiefs, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Packers vs. Chiefs
Whether you are reading this before the main slate starts or after it ends, I hope it treats/treated you well. This Sunday Night Football game between the Packers and Chiefs was looking like it would be a lopsided affair before the last couple of weeks. The Packers are coming off of back-to-back wins against the Chargers and Lions, while the Chiefs recently lost to the Eagles and didn’t look all that impressive against the Raiders last week. We know Lambeau is a tough place to play, which is why the current spread is less than a touchdown. We aren’t expecting a high-scoring affair with the total set at only 42 points.
Key Injuries
Aaron Jones – Out
Luke Musgrave – Out
Jayden Reed – Questionable
Josiah Deguara – Questionable
Dontayvion Wicks – Questionable
Mecole Hardman – Out
Jerick McKinnon – Questionable
Green Bay Packers Preview
Jordan Love got off to a hot start this season. He scored at least 19 fantasy points in each of his first 4 games but then averaged only 13 fantasy points over his next 4 outings. He seems to be rounding back into form, as he’s rattled off outings of 27 and 24 fantasy points over the last 2 games. He offers a little bit of rushing upside, and the Packers will be without Aaron Jones in a game where they are underdogs. They’ll likely lean on Love and the passing game quite a bit in this one. The problem is his matchup against the Chiefs, who are 4th in sacks per game and 5th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season.
We have to keep an eye on Green Bay’s injury report when it comes to their wideouts, as Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Josiah Deguara are all listed as questionable. With Luke Musgrave on injured reserve, we could see a lot of targets funnel to Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. It’s a pretty even split in terms of target share between Watson, Reed, and Doubs on the season, but Watson is well ahead of the others in terms of air yards share (34%). The concern in this matchup is that if Kansas City can get pressure on Love, there won’t be time for Watson’s routes to develop down the field.
If Reed is able to suit up, he’ll end up being my favorite wide receiver target on the Packers. He runs a lot of routes underneath and could be a safety blanket for Love in this matchup. Doubs doesn’t command a ton of targets, but he has scored a touchdown in 4 of his last 6 games. If Wicks is active, he’s firmly in play as a punt on DraftKings ($600). Tucker Kraft will serve as the TE1 for the Packers and caught a touchdown last week against the Lions. The upside is likely limited, but he could easily find his way onto the optimal with another touchdown. If Josiah Deguara is out, Ben Sims would serve as the TE2 in this offense.
AJ Dillon has only averaged 3.4 yards per carry this season, but his efficiency has been better over the last 4 games. The best way to attack the Chiefs is on the ground, and there’s a chance we get some snow in this game (I will be keeping a close eye on Kevin Roth’s weather report). Dillon won’t have a lot of competition for touches, and honestly, he might be more valuable in cold/snowy conditions than indoors or in good weather spots. It’s also worth noting that he has 7 receptions over the last 2 games. I am talking myself into a lot of Dillon exposure, aren’t I? Patrick Taylor will mix in as well and is only $2,000 on DraftKings.
The Packers don’t get a lot of pressure on the quarterback, and the Chiefs have allowed the 2nd fewest sacks per game this season. I suppose you can talk yourself into their defense with it being cold in Lambeau, but they aren’t a priority for me. Kicker Anders Carlson is viable, but he has only averaged 6.4 fantasy points per game.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Patrick Mahomes is the easiest click in this game when it comes to the MVP and CPT spots. He has scored at least 19 fantasy points in 7 of 11 games this season and has topped 25 fantasy points in 3 games. He’s also scrambling more this season, rushing for at least 20 yards in 9 games. All of this is a roundabout way of saying he has a very high floor and arguably the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. The Packers have been a middling matchup, ranking 17th in both DVOA against the pass and dropback EPA this season.
Rashee Rice has only run a route on 42% of dropbacks this season, but that number has vaulted up to 57% over the last 2 games. With how bad some of these wide receivers have been, it’s strange that Rice isn’t playing an every-down role. His fantasy points per target is elite, and he’s coming off of career-highs in receptions (8), targets (10), and receiving yards (107). He’s easily the top wide receiver option on the Chiefs in this game. Travis Kelce still deserves to be considered the top wideout in this offense. He has slate-breaking upside and is on my short list of potential MVP and CPT targets.
As far as the rest of the wideouts, it’s really a guessing game. Mecole Hardman is out, but that really doesn’t open up much. We have Justin Watson, Noah Gray, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore all projected between 4.2 and 7.5 fantasy points. I wish I had the secret to picking the right one among the six, but they are all going to split snaps and are all very volatile. I’ll play the pricing game and say that Watson is my least favorite of the bunch since he’s the most expensive. The easiest route is to mix and match them in your MME player pool. For cash games and single-entry, I’ll look to avoid all of the ancillary wideouts here.
Isiah Pacheco is going to be the feature back regardless, but we need to keep an eye on the availability of Jerick McKinnon. He doesn’t play a ton, but it’s enough that his absence would make Pacheco a stronger option and make Clyde Edwards-Helaire a viable punt. CEH was not effective against the Raiders, but he was on the field for a lot of third downs. If he’s the pass-catching back, he can easily pay off his cheap salary on DraftKings. If McKinnon is active, Pacheco would be the only running back that I would look to target in cash games and small-field tournaments. As far as the matchup goes, the Packers are 19th or worse in DVOA against the run, rush EPA, and fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Given the fact that the Chiefs have an elite pass rush and that they are sizable favorites, their defense is a strong option on this showdown slate. Depending on the weather, Harrison Butker could also be a strong play.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
While I think there is a path for the Chiefs to run away with this game, I’m not sure a full onslaught is the way that I want to build my lineups. The more exposure we have to the Chiefs, the more chances we are taking on their cheap wideouts. I don’t want to have any of them in my lineups, let alone two or three of them. I like building around Mahomes, Kelce, Pacheco, and maybe even the defense. I think there are paths for Love, Dillon, and the wideouts in this game, so I’m leaning more towards the balanced builds.
Packers-Chiefs DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 21.35 | $12,400 | $18,600 | 1.72 | $17,500 | 1.22 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 17.10 | $11,800 | $17,700 | 1.45 | $14,500 | 1.18 |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 15.97 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.66 | $15,000 | 1.06 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 15.53 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.52 | $13,500 | 1.15 |
| AJ Dillon | GB | RB | 12.45 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.60 | $12,000 | 1.04 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 10.86 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.29 | $11,500 | 0.94 |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | 10.81 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.59 | $10,500 | 1.03 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 10.15 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.45 | $11,000 | 0.92 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 8.72 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.36 | $10,000 | 0.87 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 8.00 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.74 | $9,500 | 0.84 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 7.74 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.61 | $9,000 | 0.86 |
| Justin Watson | KC | WR | 7.54 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.45 | $8,500 | 0.89 |
| Anders Carlson | GB | K | 6.40 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.45 | $9,000 | 0.71 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 6.15 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.46 | $7,500 | 0.82 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 6.00 | $800 | $1,200 | 7.50 | $8,000 | 0.75 |
| Patrick Taylor | GB | RB | 5.62 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.81 | $9,500 | 0.59 |
| Packers | GB | DST | 4.69 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.23 | $8,500 | 0.55 |
| Jerick McKinnon | KC | RB | 4.63 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.65 | $7,000 | 0.66 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 4.40 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 3.67 | $6,000 | 0.73 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | WR | 4.39 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.46 | $8,000 | 0.55 |
| Kadarius Toney | KC | WR | 4.29 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.68 | $7,500 | 0.57 |
| Skyy Moore | KC | WR | 4.21 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.75 | $7,000 | 0.60 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | RB | 2.27 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 0.87 | $6,000 | 0.38 |
| Ben Sims | GB | TE | 1.50 | $200 | $300 | 7.50 | $5,500 | 0.27 |
| Josiah Deguara | GB | TE | 1.37 | $200 | $300 | 6.85 | $5,500 | 0.25 |
| Richie James | KC | WR | 0.97 | $200 | $300 | 4.85 | $5,000 | 0.19 |
Fantasy Sleepers
AJ Dillon: $7,800 DK / $12,000 FD
I’m writing this before we have ownership projections for this game, but whatever Dillon’s ownership ends up being, I don’t think it’s high enough. The best time to target him is when he doesn’t have competition for touches and when the game is outdoors in the cold/snow. The best way to attack the Chiefs is on the ground, and Dillon has 7 receptions over the last 2 games. Regardless of the game script, I expect him to be heavily involved in this one.
Packers vs. Chiefs Player Pick’em
Season record: 25-15
AJ Dillon over 12.5 receiving yards (1.74x) – Sleeper
Zach Charbonnet only had 1 reception on Thursday night, but it was enough to get more than 18.5 receiving yards. We are now 22-7 on the prop picks over the last 29 games. It’s been a great run and hopefully we can keep it going on Sunday night. For this game, I’m going with AJ Dillon to get more than 12.5 receiving yards. As I’ve mentioned a few times already, he has 7 receptions over the last 2 games. The Packers are sizable underdogs here and are facing a fierce pass rush, so we could see a lot of dump-offs and maybe a couple of screens called for Dillon. With Jones out and the receiving corps banged up, this one feels like a slam dunk.