The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Packers vs. Lions
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Packers vs. Lions, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Packers vs. Lions
Happy Thursday everyone!
We have an NFC North battle on our hands tonight, as the Detroit Lions head to Lambeau to take on the Green Bay Packers. All division games are important, but this one has a little more meaning since the other two teams in the division are 0-3 after the first three games. The winner of tonight’s game will have a 3-1 record and a sizable lead on the rest of the division. The Lions are currently 1.5-point favorites and the game features a 46-point total.
Key Injuries to Monitor
- Aaron Jones – Questionable
- Christian Watson – Questionable
- David Montgomery – Questionable
Update: All three are now expected to play. Watson will be on a snap count.
Green Bay Packers Preview
The Packers picked up a big win last week against the Falcons, despite trailing 17-0 heading into the fourth quarter. Through three games, it’s hard to tell if this team is good or if they have been lucky. They could easily be 1-2 or could easily be 3-0, as two of their games have been decided by a singe point. They have historically had a good home-field advantage and are hosting a Lions team that has been much tougher against the run (fifth in DVOA, eighth in EPA) than the pass (19th in DVOA, 17th in EPA).
Jordan Love has quietly topped 20 fantasy points (DK scoring) in each of the first three games this season. He hasn’t had any huge games through the air, but has seven passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown. He already has 14 rushing attempts on the season, which gives him a solid rushing floor each week. With Detroit’s pass rush, we could see even more scrambles from Love on Thursday night. He’s a strong option in all formats and deserves consideration at Captain and MVP.
There are two big injuries to monitor for the Packers. The first is Christian Watson, who has missed the first three games with a hamstring injury. In his absence, here’s how the target share has been divided — Romeo Doubs (20%), Jayden Reed (20%), and Luke Musgrave (16%). Dontayvion Wicks has also mixed in with six catches on 12 targets. Even if Watson is active, there’s a good chance he’ll be on a snap limit, given the nature of the injury. If he’s out again, we can feel much more confident about where Love is going to throw the ball. The matchup sets up particularly well for Musgrave, as the Lions have allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than any team in the league this season.
The second big injury to monitor for the Packers is Aaron Jones. He has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, but was able to practice on a limited basis this week. The Packers have desperately missed having him in the lineup, as AJ Dillon and Patrick Taylor haven’t been able to generate much of anything on the ground. The duo combined for 30 rushing attempts and 95 yards the last two games. Much like Watson, there’s a good chance Jones will be on a snap count restriction with this being a hamstring injury. Given how good the Lions have been against the run, this might be a good situation to avoid if Jones is active.
When looking for a defense in DFS, I like teams that are expected to be playing with a lead and teams that can get pressure on the quarterback. The Packers are slight underdogs here and have the ninth lowest pressure rate in the NFL. Additionally, the Lions have had the third-fewest sacks on their quarterback. This is certainly a game where I could see the kickers having a field day. Anders Carlson has yet to miss a field goal or an extra point this season.
Detroit Lions Preview
The Lions picked up a big win against the Chiefs in Week 1, they gave their Week 2 game away against the Seahawks, and then they bounced back with a nice win at home against the Falcons. They are one of those teams that can compete with anyone when they are at their best, but will still have some puzzling losses along the way. A matchup against the Packers is fairly average across the board. Green Bay is ranked between 10th and 21st in DVOA and EPA against both the run and the pass.
Jared Goff has had significant home/road splits over the last three seasons. During that stretch, he has averaged 20.4 fantasy points at home and 12.9 fantasy points on the road. The road splits get even worse when you take out the other indoor games. Essentially, he’s not nearly as productive when he’s playing outside. This doesn’t mean that he can’t have a good outing against the Packers, but the splits are certainly worth mentioning. The good news is that the Packers don’t have a particularly strong pass rush and that Goff has plenty of weapons to work with on offense. He’s certainly viable given the fact that this is a showdown slate, but I’ll look elsewhere at Captain and MVP.
Through the first three games, here’s how the target share has been divided for the Lions — Amon-Ra St. Brown (27%), Sam LaPorta (21%), Josh Reynolds (12%), Kalif Raymond (8%), and Marvin Jones (5%). Goff’s struggles on the road have naturally funneled to his receivers as well, as St. Brown has averaged eight fewer fantasy points per game on the road over the last two seasons. He’s still their best weapon in the passing game and a good bet to see double-digit targets in this one. Reynolds is the team’s best deep threat and could see a significant matchup boost if Jaire Alexander is unable to suit up. LaPorta is coming off of a big week against the Falcons and is looking to buck the trend that all tight ends struggle in their rookie season.
David Montgomery is the big injury to monitor for the Lions, as he’s shaping up to be a game-time decision with a thigh injury. He was originally expected to miss a couple of weeks, but he was able to practice on a limited basis this week. In his absence in Week 3, Jahmyr Gibbs dominated the early down work (17 carries for 80 yards), but wasn’t nearly as involved in the passing game as many expected (one reception for two yards). If D-Mont is out again, Gibbs becomes one of the top plays on the board. He’s an explosive rookie that has some positive touchdown regression coming his way. If D-Mont is active, I still prefer Gibbs over Montgomery despite the difference in touches in Week 1 when they were both healthy.
The Lions have the ability to get pressure on the quarterback thanks to Aidan Hutchinson and could be playing with a lead in this one, but the Packers have been the best pass-blocking unit in the league through three games. They are first in both pressure rate allowed and pressure rate allowed over expectation. Unlike most of the primetime slates this season, I’m not looking to force either defense into my lineups. However, kicker Riley Patterson does deserve a look.
Roster Construction Ideas
When putting together showdown lineups, we have to consider a number of factors — ownership, game script, correlation, and being unique. One of the most underutilized strategies for showdown is the full onslaught of a team, especially in games that feature a close spread. While this game should be competitive on paper, football is a crazy sport where a play or two can drastically alter the outcome of a game. If you are MME’ing the slate, don’t be afraid to build lineups with five Lions and/or five Packers.
If you are planning to roster one or both of the quarterbacks, I always like to pair them up with at least one of their wideouts. The only exception is with a quarterback that has massive rushing upside and even then, I generally look to take at least one wideout from his team. For tonight’s game, it’s hard to see Goff getting there without at least one of his wideouts because he’s not going to rush for a bunch of yards. It’s possible for Love, but his wideouts are cheap enough that stacking makes sense with both quarterbacks.
In terms of being different from the field, a lot of that will hinge on the availability of Watson, Jones, and Montgomery. If any or all end up being active, the players that have benefitted from their absences will all see a significant discount in ownership. I don’t mind keeping Reed, Doubs, and Musgrave in my player pool if Watson is active or keeping Gibbs in my player pool if Montgomery is active.
Packers-Lions DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 19.06 | $11,600 | $17,400 | 1.64 | $14,000 | 1.36 |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 18.55 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.89 | $16,000 | 1.16 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 15.81 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.52 | $15,500 | 1.02 |
| David Montgomery | DET | RB | 14.61 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 2.15 | $12,500 | 1.17 |
| Aaron Jones | GB | RB | 13.68 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.27 | $13,500 | 1.01 |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | 11.71 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.43 | $11,500 | 1.02 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 11.70 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.22 | $12,000 | 0.98 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 10.47 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.19 | $10,500 | 1.00 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 10.14 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.27 | $10,000 | 1.01 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 9.44 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.69 | $9,000 | 1.05 |
| AJ Dillon | GB | RB | 8.40 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.20 | $11,000 | 0.76 |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | TE | 8.04 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.26 | $8,000 | 1.01 |
| Riley Patterson | DET | K | 7.53 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.57 | $9,500 | 0.79 |
| Anders Carlson | GB | K | 7.20 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.57 | $8,000 | 0.90 |
| Josh Reynolds | DET | WR | 7.02 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.13 | $9,500 | 0.74 |
| Lions | DET | DST | 4.75 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.19 | $9,000 | 0.53 |
| Packers | GB | DST | 4.61 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.28 | $8,500 | 0.54 |
| Kalif Raymond | DET | WR | 4.46 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 0.86 | $8,500 | 0.52 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 2.97 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 0.59 | $7,500 | 0.40 |
| Marvin Jones | DET | WR | 2.50 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.25 | $7,000 | 0.36 |
| Brock Wright | DET | TE | 1.26 | $800 | $1,200 | 1.58 | $5,500 | 0.23 |
| Josiah Deguara | GB | TE | 1.14 | $200 | $300 | 5.70 | $5,500 | 0.21 |
| Samori Toure | GB | WR | 0.92 | $600 | $900 | 1.53 | $6,500 | 0.14 |
| Craig Reynolds | DET | RB | 0.72 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 0.26 | $7,000 | 0.10 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Luke Musgrave – $6,400 DK / $9,600 FD
Musgrave has been a popular value play at tight end in the first three weeks of the season, but that’s because he’s been in the $3,000 range on DraftKings. There is a little bit of sticker shock with him being $6,400 on DraftKings and $9,600 on FanDuel. The ownership will come up a bit if Watson ends up being out, but I’ll roster Musgrave regardless. His role is not going to change even if Watson is active and the Lions have been shredded by opposing tight ends this season (25 receptions, 263 yards, and a touchdown).
Packers vs. Lions Player Props
Luke Musgrave over 36.5 receiving yards (1.75x) – Sleeper
For all of the reasons I mentioned above, I like the over on Musgrave’s receiving prop.
I was watching a random college game last Saturday and the announcers were talking about one of the coaches and how he was insistent on not using the term ‘good luck,’ He tells his team good execution instead. I like that, but we also need a bit of luck in showdown.
So… good luck and good execution tonight!