The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Packers vs. Lions
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Packers vs. Lions, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Packers vs. Lions
Happy Thursday everyone! I have to give the NFL some props because we’ve had some tremendous Thursday Night Football games this season. We have another one on tap tonight, as two of the best teams in the NFC square off in Detroit. The NFC North has quietly been the best division in football, as three of the teams are 9-3 or better in the standings. A Packers win tonight would pull them within a game of the division lead, but the Lions have rattled off 10 wins in a row. This divisional clash features a 3.5-point spread and a 51.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Romeo Doubs – Out
Kalif Raymond – Out
Green Bay Packers Preview
The Packers have had a good offense all season, yet they haven’t been a popular team to target for DFS. The problem is more about how they score, as they have one of the most balanced passing attacks in the league. It’s hard to stack with Jordan Love when he targets 5 or more wideouts each week. The target tree should be more condensed with Romeo Doubs out tonight. As far as the matchup, the Lions are 2nd in EPA against the pass and 8th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. However, they’ve had one of the lowest pressure rates in the league since Aidan Hutchinson went down with his injury. Love is viable in all formats and deserves consideration at the multiplier spots.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for Green Bay this season (sans Doubs):
Jayden Reed: 17% target share, 16% air yards share, 22% first-read rate
Christian Watson: 12% target share, 27% air yards share, 14% first-read rate
Dontayvion Wicks: 14% target share, 23% air yards share, 17% first-read rate
Tucker Kraft: 13% target share, 6% air yards share, 12% first-read rate
While the Lions have a good pass defense on paper, opposing wide receivers have racked up fantasy points against them because they often find themselves in favorable game scripts. We’ll get there shortly, but Detroit has an elite run defense and is usually playing with a lead. It’s a great spot for Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks, as the Lions have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Reed offers the highest floor, Watson leads the team in air yards, and Wicks is the best point-per-dollar option. I’m less interested in Tucker Kraft, as the Lions have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends of any team this season.
Josh Jacobs never gets the ownership that he deserves on full slates. He’s always on my radar as a tournament play because he’s a good bet for 20+ touches each week and has an elite role in the red zone. However, this is not a spot where I want to be overweight on him. The Lions are 3rd in EPA against the run and 2nd in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. The game script could also hurt his touch total. Maybe he can get there in the passing game, but I would rather take my chance with Green Bay’s receivers.
I want no part of the Packers D/ST on this slate and will also be fading kicker Brandon McManus. You can’t beat the Lions by settling for field goals.
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Detroit Lions Preview
The Lions are a team that loves to run the football. With that offensive line and their two standout running backs, it’s easy to see why. Jared Goff can still get there with efficiency, but he relies on touchdowns and big plays since the team has the 3rd-lowest pass rate in the NFL. Goff has historically had great splits indoors and has averaged 21 fantasy points per game at home this season. The Packers have a mediocre pass defense. Goff is one of my favorite UTIL/AnyFLEX options, but I will look elsewhere at CPT/MVP.
Let’s take a look at Detroit’s wideout usage this season:
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 26% target share, 31% air yards share, 31% first-read rate
Jameson Williams: 18% target share, 33% air yards share, 24% first-read rate
Tim Patrick: 8% target share, 15% air yards share, 9% first-read rate
Sam LaPorta: 13% target share, 14% air yards share, 13% first-read rate
Unlike the Packers, the Lions have a very concentrated passing attack. The ball is going to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta (every once in a while). With Kalif Raymond out, Tim Patrick should be the clear WR3 against the Packers, who are 8th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 25th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. I’m not concerned about the tough matchup on paper for these receivers, as the Lions are going to put up points against any opponent placed in front of them. However, the spot is certainly intriguing for LaPorta, who has seen at least 6 targets in 5 of the last 6 games. I might sprinkle a bit on LaPorta to score the first touchdown in the prop market.
The Lions have one of the best rushing attacks in football and are facing a team that is 22nd in PFF’s grades against the run. We can expect somewhere in the range of 30 rushing attempts for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, especially if they can build a lead early. I honestly don’t hate the 2-RB build on Detroit’s side and then load up on Green Bay’s passing attack. There’s certainly a scenario where Montgomery and Gibbs (aka Knuckles and Sonic) are the two top-scoring players on the Lions.
The Lions D/ST has scored at least 5 fantasy points in every game this season. They are constantly playing with a lead and can force turnovers. They aren’t a priority for me on this slate, but they are certainly viable. Kicker Jake Bates is 19-for-20 on the season and a strong value play in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I mentioned this earlier, but I love the idea of building through the Lions’ rushing attack and through the Packers’ passing attack. The Lions want to run the ball, and that’s been the easiest way to move the ball against the Packers this season. The Packers are likely going to have a tough time running the ball against Detroit, who has only struggled to defend one position this season (wide receiver). I’ll also mix in some LaPorta and Bates.
Packers vs. Lions DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 19.14 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.88 | $14,500 | 1.32 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 18.29 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.91 | $13,000 | 1.41 |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 17.80 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.89 | $13,500 | 1.32 |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | 16.85 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.72 | $12,500 | 1.35 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 16.18 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.80 | $15,000 | 1.08 |
| David Montgomery | DET | RB | 14.48 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.68 | $12,000 | 1.21 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 14.04 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.85 | $11,000 | 1.28 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 12.36 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.77 | $10,500 | 1.18 |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | 11.16 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.69 | $10,000 | 1.12 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 10.79 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.93 | $9,500 | 1.14 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 10.10 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 2.40 | $7,500 | 1.35 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 8.73 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.62 | $9,500 | 0.92 |
| Jake Bates | DET | K | 7.48 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.44 | $9,000 | 0.83 |
| Brandon McManus | GB | K | 7.31 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.46 | $9,000 | 0.81 |
| Tim Patrick | DET | WR | 6.18 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.82 | $8,000 | 0.77 |
| Lions | DET | DST | 5.68 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.23 | $8,500 | 0.67 |
| Chris Brooks | GB | RB | 4.63 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.93 | $6,000 | 0.77 |
| Packers | GB | DST | 4.47 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.18 | $8,500 | 0.53 |
| Bo Melton | GB | WR | 3.39 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.83 | $7,000 | 0.48 |
| Emanuel Wilson | GB | RB | 2.41 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.21 | $7,500 | 0.32 |
| Brock Wright | DET | TE | 1.68 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 0.56 | $7,000 | 0.24 |
| Malik Heath | GB | WR | 1.68 | $600 | $900 | 2.80 | $6,500 | 0.26 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Dontayvion Wicks $4,200 DK / $7,500 FD
We currently have Dontayvion Wicks projected for less than 30% ownership on tonight’s slate, which is music to my ears. On the season, he boasts a 14% target share, a 23% air yards share, and a 17% first-read rate. Those numbers are only expected to go up with Romeo Doubs out of the lineup. The matchup sets up well for him too, as the Lions have been tough on tight ends and running backs, yet they have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Packers vs. Lions Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 25-18
Dontayvion Wicks more than 38.5 receiving yards (1.72x) – Sleeper Fantasy
For all the reasons mentioned above (along with what should be a favorable game script), I like Dontayvion Wicks to get more than 38.5 receiving yards tonight.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus