The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Patriots vs. Jets
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Patriots vs. Jets, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks that we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites, like Sleeper Fantasy, ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. To build the best lineups possible, check out LineupHQ, which is my favorite NFL DFS optimizer in the industry.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Patriots vs. Jets
We’ve had some great primetime games this season, but that stretch could come to an end with the Patriots and Jets on Thursday night. While both of these teams could battle for playoff spots in the AFC, they are two of the least entertaining teams in the NFL. The Patriots are 1-1 after losing to the Seahawks in overtime last week, while the Jets are 1-1 after narrowly beating the Titans (Will Levis has now cost Tennessee two wins in two weeks). This division rivalry features a 6.5-point spread and a 37.5-point total (gross).
Key Injuries
None
New England Patriots Preview
New England’s head coach Jerod Mayo has made it very clear that the team wants to run the ball and play stout defense this season. Nothing against Jacoby Brissett and his wideouts, but I would employ a similar game plan if I were in Mayo’s shoes. They are 5th in rush rate (58%) through the first two games. This has hurt the fantasy production of Brissett, as the Patriots aren’t asking him to do much under center. He’s thrown for 270 yards and a touchdown in the first two games combined. Quarterbacks are always viable on Showdown slates, but Brissett is far from a lock-and-load target on Thursday night. One major concern is the offensive line’s health- the center, left tackle, and left guard are all nursing injuries.
Let’s take a look at the usage for New England’s wideouts through the first two games:
Ja’Lynn Polk: 62% route percentage, 8% target rate, 14% air yards share
K.J. Osborn: 53% route percentage, 16% target rate, 15% air yards share
Demario Douglas: 75% route percentage, 6% target rate, 3% air yards share
Tyquan Thornton: 64% route percentage, 6% target rate, 16% air yards share
Hunter Henry: 87% route percentage, 28% target rate, 32% air yards share
It hasn’t exactly been a fruitful passing attack, but we have to be encouraged by the way the Patriots are using Hunter Henry. He leads the team in route rate, target rate, and air yards share. After a quiet Week 1, he caught 8 of 12 targets for 109 yards last week against the Seahawks. With the Jets having two elite cornerbacks on the outside, the best way to move the ball against them is on the ground and over the middle of the field.
Ja’Lynn Polk found the end zone in Week 2, but he’s only had 4 targets and 1 rushing attempt all season. K.J. Osborn hasn’t run as many routes as some of his teammates, but he does have the second highest target rate and air yards share on the team. He’s also first among wideouts in first read percentage (21%). Demario Douglas has been on the field a lot, but he’s just running wind sprints out there. He’s only seen 3 targets all season. Tyquan Thornton pops on a per-dollar basis, but he could struggle running his outside routes against these cornerbacks.
The easy click on the Patriots is Rhamondre Stevenson. He’s already seen 51 touches in the first two games combined, and we’ve seen teams run all over the Jets this season. It’s still a small sample size, but New York is 24th in EPA against the run and 22nd in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The matchup is even better than it looks on paper, as the Jets could be without Jermaine Johnson and C.J. Mosley. Stevenson is a good bet for 20+ touches once again. His involvement in the passing game (16% target share) should keep him involved regardless of the game script. Antonio Gibson has already had 19 touches this season and is worth a look in large-field tournaments.
The Patriots’ defense has the 11th best sack potential this week and is facing a Nate Hackett offense. They are certainly viable on this slate. Kicker Joey Slye has had three field goal attempts in each of the first two games. With this one having such a low total, the kicking points could be more valuable than most Showdown slates.
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New York Jets Preview
The Jets owe Will Levis a nice steak dinner after he made another careless play in Week 2. I know we are here to talk about the Patriots and Jets, but I can’t wait to see what Levis does this week. He’s must-watch television at this point. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t surpassed expectations in the first two games of the season, but he’s certainly an upgrade on what the Jets had last season. He’s completed over 60% of his passes in each of the first couple of games and has 3 touchdowns with 1 interception. I am prioritizing him over Brissett, but there’s a world where both starting quarterbacks fail to score 10 fantasy points in this game.
Let’s take a look at the usage for New York’s wideouts through the first two games:
Garrett Wilson: 89% route percentage, 29% target rate, 45% air yards share
Allen Lazard: 78% route percentage, 22% target rate, 41% air yards share
Mike Williams: 34% route percentage, 2% target rate, 5% air yards share
Tyler Conklin: 73% route percentage, 5% target rate, 3% air yards share
While this isn’t a high-volume passing attack, at least we know where the targets are going. Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard have combined for over 50% of the team’s targets and over 85% of the team’s air yards. You don’t see that very often in the NFL. Rodgers has always been a quarterback that has his favorite wideouts, and it’s pretty clear that Wilson and Lazard are his current favorites. I will note that Mike Williams ran a route on 55% of dropbacks in Week 2, so his role will continue to grow in the coming weeks. Wilson is easily my favorite target of the three, but he’s obviously much more expensive. Tyler Conklin has only caught 2 of 4 targets for 16 yards this season. He’s not cheap enough to make him a strong value play on Thursday night.
Breece Hall is one of the most talented running backs in the NFL and should be more efficient this season with Rodgers under center. In the first two games of the season, he has turned 44 opportunities into 207 yards and 2 touchdowns. He continues to get peppered with targets, and the Patriots could be without one of their best run stoppers in Ja’whaun Bentley. Much like Stevenson on the other side of the ball, Hall is the easiest click on the Jets. Rookie Braelon Allen saw an uptick in snaps and touches in Week 2. He turned his 9 touches into 45 yards and 2 touchdowns. The problem is that he’s priced up on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Given the talent on the Jets’ defense and the injuries to the Patriots’ offensive line, this is a great slate to target the D/ST. However, I will note that the Patriots are unlikely to stray far from their game plan of running the ball as often as possible. Kicker Greg Zuerlein might be my favorite value play on the slate.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
In general, the uglier the game, the more viable defenses and kickers end up being on Showdown slates. I’ll have exposure to both defenses and both kickers on Thursday night. I don’t have a strong take on the game script, but I will prioritize the three key positional players (Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Rhamondre Stevenson) over the starting quarterbacks. Full Jets onslaughts (5-1 stacks on DraftKings, 4-1 stacks on FanDuel) will be a regular feature in my builds.
Patriots vs. Jets DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 22.36 | $11,800 | $17,700 | 1.89 | $16,000 | 1.40 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 18.48 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.81 | $13,000 | 1.42 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 16.71 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 1.47 | $15,000 | 1.11 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | QB | 16.24 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.62 | $14,000 | 1.16 |
| Jacoby Brissett | NE | QB | 13.69 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.52 | $12,500 | 1.10 |
| Allen Lazard | NYJ | WR | 9.74 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.68 | $9,500 | 1.03 |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | WR | 8.17 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.95 | $7,500 | 1.09 |
| Jets | NYJ | DST | 7.41 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.37 | $9,500 | 0.78 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 7.32 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 0.94 | $11,000 | 0.67 |
| Tyler Conklin | NYJ | TE | 7.17 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.56 | $8,000 | 0.90 |
| Antonio Gibson | NE | RB | 7.06 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.96 | $11,500 | 0.61 |
| Patriots | NE | DST | 6.06 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.38 | $9,000 | 0.67 |
| Mike Williams | NYJ | WR | 5.63 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 0.91 | $9,000 | 0.63 |
| Ja’Lynn Polk | NE | WR | 5.32 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.33 | $8,000 | 0.67 |
| Tyquan Thornton | NE | WR | 5.03 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 3.14 | $7,000 | 0.72 |
| K.J. Osborn | NE | WR | 4.97 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.55 | $7,500 | 0.66 |
| Austin Hooper | NE | TE | 4.07 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.70 | $7,000 | 0.58 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | RB | 3.66 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 0.70 | $10,000 | 0.37 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | TE | 2.66 | $800 | $1,200 | 3.33 | $6,500 | 0.41 |
| Xavier Gipson | NYJ | WR | 1.82 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.91 | $6,500 | 0.28 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Mike Williams: $6,200 DK / $9,000 FD
This isn’t a play that I feel particularly great about, but all of the good plays in this game are going to be popular (including the defenses and kickers). The Jets paid Williams $10 million this offseason, and it’s only a 1-year contract, so both sides would love for him to have a good season. After only running a route on 13% of dropbacks in Week 1, he ran a route on 55% of dropbacks in Week 2. We know he can catch touchdowns and is unlikely to garner much ownership.
Patriots vs. Jets Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 6-1
Rhamondre Stevenson more than 2.5 receptions (1.62x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We stayed hot on Monday night with DeVonta Smith. We are now 6-1 on the season. Let’s keep it rolling on Thursday night with Rhamondre Stevenson to get more than 2.5 receptions. He has very little competition for snaps at this point of the season and has averaged 27 opportunities per game. The Patriots have played with a lead on nearly 80% of their offensive drives (this is a calculated guess on my part), and Stevenson has still seen 8 targets. With the Jets being sizable favorites in this one, the Patriots may need to air it out a bit more in the second half of this game. I know this is a different system, but Stevenson caught at least 3 passes in 7 of 12 games last season.
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