The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Raiders vs. Chargers
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Raiders vs. Chargers, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Raiders vs. Chargers
We are to the point of the season where teams out of the playoff race are starting to realize that they might as well tank for a better draft pick. I’m not saying that the coaches or players aren’t going to do their best, but the front offices of these teams are more concerned about the future than the present. The Chargers have been one of the biggest disappointments this season and are going to be without their starting quarterback and their best three receivers for this game. The Raiders have been better under interim coach Antonio Pierce but couldn’t score a single point last week against the Vikings. This will likely be an ugly game, as the total is set at only 34.5 points.
Key Injuries
Davante Adams – Questionable
Josh Jacobs – Questionable
Justin Herbert – Out
Keenan Allen – Out
Donald Parham – Questionable
Las Vegas Raiders Preview
The Raiders have some good players on offense but haven’t had a signal caller who has been able to take advantage of those weapons. Aidan O’Connell has made 7 appearances this season and has maxed out at 13.9 fantasy points. That’s not exactly the ceiling we are looking for when it comes to DFS. The good news is that he’s at home and facing the Chargers, who are 20th in pressure rate, 25th in DVOA against the pass, and 28th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Raw fantasy production matters a lot more in Showdown (especially in games with low totals), so O’Connell does deserve consideration. With that said, I prefer him as a FLEX play rather than as an MVP or CPT.
Right when Pierce took over as the interim coach, he went to Josh Jacobs and told him that they were going to lean on the run. That has certainly come to fruition, as Jacobs has at least 24 touches in 3 of the last 5 games. We have to keep an eye on his status though, as he didn’t participate in practice this week and is officially listed as questionable. I doubt the Raiders would look to limit his touches if he’s active, which makes him one of the most appealing plays on the slate. The Chargers have been just as bad against the run as they have been against the pass, allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to running backs. If Jacobs is unable to suit up, Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah would split the work in this backfield and become two of the best value plays on the slate.
Much like the backfield, we have to keep an eye on the injury report when it comes to the wideouts. Davante Adams missed practice on Wednesday and is officially listed as questionable. It’s been a tumultuous season for Adams, but he has still commanded an elite target share (30%) and an elite air yards share (45%) in this offense. If active, he makes a strong play against a very beatable Chargers secondary. If he’s ruled out, Jakobi Meyers would become the clear WR1 and make for a strong option in all formats. Adams being out would also lead to a lot more snaps for Tre Tucker on the outside and likely more targets for Hunter Renfrow in the slot. Michael Mayer has been quiet most of the season, but the Chargers have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
The last time I was high on the Raiders’ defense, they put up a big performance at home against the Giants. I could see them replicating that tonight, as the Chargers are playing with a backup quarterback and without their best three receivers. Kicker Daniel Carlson has scored at least 13 fantasy points in 3 of his last 7 games.
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
The Chargers have so much hope at the start of each season, and it always seems to go awry. While the injuries on offense have certainly taken their toll, this is still a team that has underperformed on both ends of the ball. Justin Herbert just had surgery, which paves the way for Easton Stick (how is he not a professional baseball player?) to make his first career start. He has taken a total of 38 snaps in 5 years in the NFL, so he’s somewhat of an unknown commodity. He has 1 career rushing attempt for -2 yards. It’s anyone’s guess as to how he will perform tonight, but he’s viable given the nature of Showdown slates. The Raiders aren’t as good of a matchup as you might expect, as they are 12th in DVOA against the pass and 7th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Before last week’s game, we got a report saying the Chargers were going to split carries between Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, and Isaiah Spiller. That didn’t exactly come to fruition, as Ekeler played 48 snaps, Kelley played 12 snaps, and Spiller played 7 snaps. Ultimately, this comes down to how you think the Chargers are going to attack this game. They opted for Herbert to get surgery and were quick to rule out Keenan Allen. They are also likely to make a coaching change at the end of the season. And on top of all that, Ekeler has not looked like himself this season. I could see Kelley and Spiller getting a lot more involved in the last 4 games of the season. In my MME builds, I plan to be underweight on Ekeler and overweight on the other two running backs. We currently have Ekeler projected for 58% ownership, which is too high for my liking.
This receiving room just can’t stay healthy. First, it was Mike Williams, then it was Joshua Palmer, and now it’s Keenan Allen. The one positive is that the Chargers activated Palmer off injured reserve. He practiced in full this week and is expected to play in this game. He could see limited reps given the fact that he is coming back from a knee injury. On a per-dollar basis, I’ll side with Quentin Johnston over Palmer here (I’ll have exposure to both). Johnston has had a highlight reel of bad plays this season but is coming off his best game as a pro. Jalen Guyton and Alex Erickson will also see snaps at receiver and can be included in your player pool on DraftKings. Donald Parham is questionable for this one. If he’s out, Gerald Everett could get peppered with targets. Honestly, Everett might be the best pass catcher on the Chargers in this game.
The Chargers’ defense is viable strictly because the Raiders offense is bad and dealing with injuries. Even though they haven’t been great against the run or the pass, they somehow have the 2nd-most sacks per game this season. Kicker Cameron Dicker is talented, but his production hinges on the offense’s ability to move the ball.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Do you know the shrugging emoji? That sums up how I feel about this slate. We still have some injuries to monitor. If Jacobs and/or Adams end up being out, we will have more salary than we can use. This would make leaving thousands of dollars on the table a strong strategy in tournaments. It would also concentrate the ownership around the expensive targets. I don’t have a strong take on building onslaught lineups, as it’s hard to see either team running away with this game. My favorite MVP and CPT targets are Jacobs and Adams, so I hope at least one of the two ends up being active. The double-defense and double-kicker lineups are firmly in play in this one.
Raiders-Chargers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | LV | WR | 16.02 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.43 | $12,500 | 1.28 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | RB | 15.18 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.38 | $14,000 | 1.08 |
| Easton Stick | LAC | QB | 13.09 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.39 | $13,000 | 1.01 |
| Zamir White | LV | RB | 13.07 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 4.36 | $10,000 | 1.31 |
| Aidan O’Connell | LV | QB | 12.47 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.30 | $13,000 | 0.96 |
| Jakobi Meyers | LV | WR | 10.50 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.22 | $11,000 | 0.95 |
| Josh Palmer | LAC | WR | 10.25 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.65 | $5,000 | 2.05 |
| Daniel Carlson | LV | K | 7.98 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.73 | $9,500 | 0.84 |
| Gerald Everett | LAC | TE | 7.82 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.50 | $8,500 | 0.92 |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 7.52 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.39 | $10,000 | 0.75 |
| Chargers | LAC | DST | 6.52 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.48 | $8,500 | 0.77 |
| Hunter Renfrow | LV | WR | 6.50 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.63 | $8,000 | 0.81 |
| Raiders | LV | DST | 6.35 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.51 | $9,000 | 0.71 |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | 5.28 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.06 | $9,000 | 0.59 |
| Ameer Abdullah | LV | RB | 5.03 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.05 | $7,500 | 0.67 |
| Michael Mayer | LV | TE | 3.93 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.23 | $7,500 | 0.52 |
| Donald Parham | LAC | TE | 3.59 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.28 | $6,500 | 0.55 |
| Jalen Guyton | LAC | WR | 3.42 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 2.44 | $7,000 | 0.49 |
| Joshua Kelley | LAC | RB | 2.91 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 0.43 | $7,000 | 0.42 |
| Alex Erickson | LAC | WR | 2.38 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.38 | $5,500 | 0.43 |
| Isaiah Spiller | LAC | RB | 2.30 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 0.61 | $6,500 | 0.35 |
| Tre Tucker | LV | WR | 1.74 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.45 | $6,000 | 0.29 |
| Austin Hooper | LV | TE | 1.47 | $800 | $1,200 | 1.84 | $6,000 | 0.25 |
| Brandon Bolden | LV | RB | 0.49 | $200 | $300 | 2.45 | $5,000 | 0.10 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Quentin Johnston: $5,400 DK / $10,000 FD
Johnston has burned most of the DFS community at least once this season. All anyone can remember are the bad drops and the bad fantasy outings. His ownership projection is currently less than 20%, which makes him a strong sleeper. He caught 3 passes for 91 yards last week, and the Chargers are underdogs in this game. With no Allen and Williams, there’s a path for him to lead the Chargers in targets in this game.
Raiders vs. Chargers Player Pick’em
Season record: 28-16
25-8 over the last 33 games
Gerald Everett more than 29.5 Receiving Yards (1.80x) – Sleeper
CeeDee Lamb didn’t quite get there for us on Sunday night, but we’ll look to start a new streak tonight. I was tempted to double-down on Johnston, but he’s already featured as the sleeper for this game. I’ll go with Everett to get more than 29.5 receiving yards. He has racked up at least 40 receiving yards in 3 straight games and could be Stick’s security blanket against the Raiders. He also has a slightly better matchup than the receivers, as the Raiders have allowed the 11th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. This number will likely go up if Parham ends up being out, so I like the idea of betting it before the final inactives are released.
Image Credit: Getty Images