The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Ravens vs. Bengals
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Ravens vs. Bengals, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Ravens vs. Bengals
It’s always a good feeling when Thursday rolls around because that means the start of a new NFL week. And for the first time in quite a while, we have a tremendous game on tap. The Bengals and Ravens are both coming off of tough losses and are in the midst of an AFC North battle. The Ravens can improve to 8-3 with a win, while the Bengals could drop back down to .500 with a loss. This game features a 3.5-point total and a 46-point total.
Key Injuries
Tee Higgins – Out
Andrei Iosivas – Out
Baltimore Ravens Preview
Football is a funny game. The Ravens were absolutely dominating the Browns last week, but their offense stalled, their defense couldn’t get stops, and a pick-six changed the course of the game. They’ll look to bounce back from a loss against one division rival with a win against another. If you have rostered Lamar Jackson at all during the last three weeks, then you have experienced some serious pain. You know those bad Pepto Bismol commercials where they sing about all of the different symptoms? Yeah, I’ve felt all of those thanks to Baltimore’s running backs stealing all of the touchdowns the last three games. Eventually, the touchdowns will find their way back to Jackson, and he’s one of only three players capable of scoring 30+ fantasy points in this game. He deserves consideration at both MVP and CPT.
The Ravens will be without left tackle Ronnie Stanley in this one, but that’s somewhat offset by the fact that the Bengals are without edge rusher Sam Hubbard. The Bengals have been mediocre against the pass this season but have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Mark Andrews has topped 60 yards and/or has scored a touchdown in six of the last seven games. This is one of his best matchups to date, and the price point is more than reasonable on FanDuel and DraftKings.
While I always root for a good comeback story, it’s strange that the Ravens have decided to feature Odell Beckham the last two weeks. I still view him as a low-ceiling option that needs to score a touchdown to be relevant. Even though he’s more expensive, I will continue to side with Zay Flowers. Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor round out the wide receiver room. Bateman is a tad too expensive for my liking, but Agholor is only $800 on DraftKings.
With Keaton Mitchell making explosive play after explosive play, Justice Hill has become an afterthought in this backfield. Gus Edwards will likely still lead the way in terms of snaps and carries, but Mitchell may not be far behind. The Bengals were just thrashed by Devin Singletary and the Texans’ rushing attack and are ranked in the bottom 4 in both DVOA against the run and rush EPA. I have interest in both Mitchell and Edwards, and there’s a path for them both to be featured on the optimal lineup.
The Ravens have the most sacks per game of any defense in the NFL, but the Bengals have not allowed many pressures since moving to an almost exclusive shotgun offense. The best case scenario for Baltimore is that they build a lead and force Cincinnati to air it out. The defense is viable but far from a priority. Justin Tucker is one of the best kickers to ever play the game of football and could easily find his way onto the optimal lineup.
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
The Bengals had a chance to win last week, but Tyler Boyd dropped the go-ahead touchdown. They had to settle for a field goal and then watched Houston’s offense drive right down the field and kick the game-winning field goal. Joe Burrow will be without one of his best weapons in Tee Higgins, but the Ravens are expected to be without their best cornerback in Marlon Humphrey. Burrow has topped 24 fantasy points in four of his last five games and has shown some rushing upside in recent weeks. He’s not my favorite MVP and CPT target, but he’s certainly viable in those multiplier spots.
Ja’Marr Chase was highly questionable heading into last week’s game but ended up making some big plays down the stretch against the Texans. He finished with 124 yards and a touchdown, which was the fourth time he has topped 100 yards this season. He should see an uptick in target share with Higgins out, and he sees a matchup boost with Humphrey out. He’s one of the best plays on the board.
With Andrei Iosivas also out, we’ll see a lot of snaps for Tyler Boyd and Trenton Irwin. Boyd topped 100 yards last week, and Irwin caught a touchdown on the first drive of the game. We can also expect a lot of 2-tight-end sets. Unfortunately, the Bengals like to feature not one, not two, but three tight ends. Irv Smith, Drew Sample, and Tanner Hudson all played between 20-23 snaps last week. It’s anyone’s guess as to which tight ends will play the best here, so I’ll side with the value (Sample is $400 on DraftKings) and the ownership (Smith could be sub-10%).
Joe Mixon was one of the most popular plays on the main slate last week and was bailed out with a late touchdown. He has struggled with efficiency in four of the last five games and now has to face a Ravens team that is 11th or better in DVOA against the run, rush EPA, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. We have to take strong stances on these Showdown slates, and my stance in this game is a full fade of Mixon. We’ll see how that pans out. Trayveon Williams is only $200 on DraftKings and is a reasonable enough punt.
The Bengals are missing one of their best pass rushers and are facing a team that loves to run the ball. They are also playing on the road as 3.5-point underdogs. If Mixon and the Bengals defense end up playing well, I’ll take my loss and move on to the Sunday slate. Kicker Evan McPherson is a strong option in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I can’t imagine making a lineup that doesn’t include both quarterbacks. Now, I don’t build 150 lineups on these Showdown slates, so perhaps my strategy is different than yours. In single-entry and small-field tournaments, I will be including both Jackson and Burrow in all of my builds. Given this plan, I don’t plan to build any onslaughts. It’s hard for a quarterback to have a big game without at least one of his wideouts playing well. My plan is to fade Mixon and Cincinnati’s defense, and I will be overweight on both of the kickers.
Ravens-Bengals DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 21.77 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 2.02 | $17,000 | 1.28 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 19.86 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.81 | $15,000 | 1.32 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 18.92 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.89 | $16,000 | 1.18 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 13.89 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.58 | $13,000 | 1.07 |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | RB | 13.74 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.43 | $12,500 | 1.10 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 13.06 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.72 | $10,500 | 1.24 |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | 13.06 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.92 | $10,000 | 1.31 |
| Trenton Irwin | CIN | WR | 9.32 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 2.12 | $7,500 | 1.24 |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | RB | 8.92 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.27 | $12,000 | 0.74 |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | K | 8.15 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.51 | $9,000 | 0.91 |
| Keaton Mitchell | BAL | RB | 8.08 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.44 | $8,500 | 0.95 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 7.91 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.72 | $9,500 | 0.83 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 7.31 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.52 | $6,500 | 1.12 |
| Evan McPherson | CIN | K | 6.42 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.61 | $8,500 | 0.76 |
| Bengals | CIN | DST | 6.03 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.68 | $8,000 | 0.75 |
| Odell Beckham | BAL | WR | 5.71 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.10 | $8,000 | 0.71 |
| Tanner Hudson | CIN | TE | 5.43 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 2.09 | $7,000 | 0.78 |
| Irv Smith | CIN | TE | 4.22 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.41 | $7,000 | 0.60 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 3.56 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.27 | $7,000 | 0.51 |
| Nelson Agholor | BAL | WR | 2.99 | $800 | $1,200 | 3.74 | $6,000 | 0.50 |
| Trayveon Williams | CIN | RB | 2.30 | $200 | $300 | 11.50 | $6,500 | 0.35 |
| Drew Sample | CIN | TE | 2.25 | $400 | $600 | 5.63 | $6,500 | 0.35 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | 1.42 | $600 | $900 | 2.37 | $6,000 | 0.24 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Irv Smith: $3,000 DK / $7,000 FD
Smith got off to a hot start against the Bills in Week 9 on a Showdown slate and then essentially disappeared the rest of the game. He only had 1 reception for 6 yards last week against the Texans, so I have to assume most will look elsewhere on this slate. However, Smith ran just as many routes as Sample and Hudson in last week’s game, and we know Burrow likes to look his way in the red zone. He’s cheap and projects to garner less than 10% ownership.
Ravens vs. Bengals Player Pick’em
Keaton Mitchell more than 36.5 Rushing Yards (1.75x) – Sleeper
Over the last two games, Mitchell has turned 12 carries into 172 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Now, he’s not going to sustain a 15-yards-per-carry pace, but after the loss to the Browns, coach John Harbaugh said that they will get Mitchell more involved this week against the Bengals. The Texans hadn’t had a 100-yard rusher in nearly a year, yet Singletary easily eclipsed that mark against the Bengals last week. The matchup is good, the coach-speak is in his favor, and Mitchell is extremely talented.