The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Saints vs. Jaguars
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Saints vs. Jaguars, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Saints vs. Jaguars
It’s an exciting time in sports — the MLB playoffs are in full swing with the ALCS and NLCS going, college football is heating up, the NHL regular season has started, the NBA regular season starts next week, and of course, we have Thursday Night Football in the NFL. My beloved Jaguars get a rare primetime game and are fresh off of victories against the Falcons, Bills, and Colts. They head to ‘The Big Easy’ to take on the Saints, who have been tough to predict on a week-to-week basis. This game features a 1-point spread and a 40-point total.
Key Injuries
Trevor Lawrence – Questionable
Zay Jones – Out
Jamaal Williams – Questionable
Juwan Johnson – Out
EDITOR’S NOTE: It is being reported that Jamaal Williams will play tonight.
New Orleans Saints Preview
The Saints brought in Derek Carr to help with the passing game, but it’s been more of the same for New Orleans. This is a team that has lacked explosiveness for a few seasons now. They are currently below the league average in both pass DVOA and dropback EPA. We used to be able to pick on the Jaguars through the air, but they have quietly been very good defensively this season. They are ranked 10th in both pass DVOA and dropback EPA. I will note that quarterbacks have racked up good numbers against Jacksonville, but a lot of it has been in garbage time and/or on the ground. Carr only has seven rushing yards this season, so he won’t be able to take advantage of that part of this defense.
Carr is viable, given the fact that this is a showdown slate, but I’m not sure he has the ceiling to end up as the optimal MVP and Captain. I will reserve those spots for a position player on the Saints or a player from the Jaguars. Chris Olave leads the Saints in target share (24%), air yards share (41%), receptions, and receiving yards. He’s in a good spot, as the Jaguars have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Michael Thomas has scored between 9.3 and 12.5 fantasy points in every game this season. He lacks upside, given his low aDOT, but he’s nothing if not consistent. Rashid Shaheed is the exact opposite of Thomas in that he’s going to see fewer targets, but he consistently gets looks deep down the field. He has slate-breaking upside, but can also ruin lineups with one of his patented floor games.
Juwan Johnson is still out for the Saints, which means more Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau at tight end. After being more of a gadget player the last couple of seasons, Hill caught 7-of-8 targets for 49 yards against the Texans last week. For whatever reason, he tends to have his best games on the big stage. I don’t love the price point, but he has the chance of seeing a few targets and a handful of rushing attempts. My general rule of thumb is always to have a little exposure to Hill on showdown slates. Carr has had good chemistry with Moreau for years, and he has caught all seven of his targets so far this season.
Since returning from suspension, Alvin Kamara has been a workhorse running back for the Saints. There’s a chance Jamaal Williams is able to return for this game, but he’s unlikely to make a major dent in Kamara’s workload. The bad news for Kamara is that he has only averaged 3.8 yards per carry and that he’s facing a top-eight run defense in the NFL. The good news is that he has seen 25 targets in three games and that the Jaguars have allowed the third most receptions to running backs this season. If Williams is out again, Kendre Miller could be a decent punt over on DraftKings ($1,800).
The Saints are in the bottom 10 in the NFL in pressure rate and sacks per game, while the Jaguars have allowed the sixth-lowest pressure rate this season. Now, there’s a chance the defense could be facing a backup, and crazy things always happen in showdown, but the Saints D/ST isn’t a priority for my lineups. To be honest, I didn’t know Blake Grupe was an NFL kicker before today. This is because the Saints have yet to play in a primetime game. Kickers are always viable in this format, especially in dome games.
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
The big question mark on the slate is the availability of Trevor Lawrence. He is dealing with a knee injury and was only able to log limited practices on Tuesday and Wednesday. It sounds like he wants to be out there, but there’s a chance we see C.J. Beathard, who has made a number of NFL starts over the years. For our purposes, let’s assume Lawrence suits up and then downgrade the entire passing attack if he’s out. Lawrence hasn’t shown a ton of upside this season but has topped 15 fantasy points in five of six games. He’s a strong flex/utility play, but I think we can find better options for MVP and Captain.
With Zay Jones ruled out, we will once again see Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley in two-receiver sets. Jamal Agnew will mix in here and there and actually projects as a strong value over on DraftKings ($400). I know it’s taboo to talk about WR/CB matchups in the year 2023, but Marshon Lattimore is likely going to shadow Ridley in this one. He’s been a lock-down cornerback this season, and we’ve seen how volatile Ridley has been week-to-week. Given the matchup, the form, and the consistency, I prefer Kirk over Ridley in all formats. Evan Engram has seen at least seven targets in five straight games and could see a matchup boost if linebacker Demario Davis is unable to suit up.
Travis Etienne has been everything we have wished him to be over the last couple of seasons. He has one of the best running back roles in the NFL, averaging well over 20 touches and 100 yards from scrimmage per game. He didn’t have a single game with more than three catches in 2022 but has already topped that mark three times in 2023. The Saints aren’t a particularly good matchup, but they are just as tough against the pass as they are against the run. Given the fact that Jacksonville will have a hobbled Lawrence or a backup under center, we can expect a big workload from Etienne. Tank Bigsby could always vulture a touchdown, but he only enters the discussion if you are MME’ing the slate.
The Jaguars D/ST is one of the sneakier plays on the slate, as the Saints are likely going to be without three of their offensive linemen in Ryan Ramczyk, Landon Young, and James Hurst. Jacksonville hasn’t gotten a lot of pressure on the quarterback this season, but the Saints have allowed the 10th most sacks through six weeks. The total in the game is so low that the kickers are viable. Brandon McManus has already had double-digit fantasy points three times this season.
Thoughts on Lineup Construction
I generally have a good idea of how I expect these primetime games to play out, but I’m a bit lost in this one. The game is essentially set as a pick ‘em, and the total is very low. The only real strategy that I have for the slate is to fade the quarterbacks at MVP and Captain. Their raw fantasy projection makes them solid flex/utility targets, but neither player has shown much upside this season. Personally, I prefer using the likes of Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Travis Etienne, and Christian Kirk at MVP and Captain. On DraftKings, I might even mix in Evan Engram given his high target share and middling price point ($5,800).
Saints-Jaguars DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | 17.03 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.64 | $15,000 | 1.14 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 17.02 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.77 | $16,000 | 1.06 |
| Derek Carr | NO | QB | 15.58 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.77 | $14,000 | 1.11 |
| Chris Olave | NO | WR | 14.97 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.66 | $12,000 | 1.25 |
| Travis Etienne | JAX | RB | 14.94 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.46 | $15,500 | 0.96 |
| Calvin Ridley | JAX | WR | 14.11 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.68 | $11,500 | 1.23 |
| Christian Kirk | JAX | WR | 12.67 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.58 | $11,000 | 1.15 |
| Michael Thomas | NO | WR | 11.75 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.68 | $10,000 | 1.18 |
| Evan Engram | JAX | TE | 11.18 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.93 | $8,500 | 1.32 |
| Taysom Hill | NO | TE | 8.00 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.29 | $8,000 | 1.00 |
| Rashid Shaheed | NO | WR | 7.76 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.55 | $9,500 | 0.82 |
| Zay Jones | JAX | WR | 7.63 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 2.24 | $7,500 | 1.02 |
| Saints | NO | DST | 7.51 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.39 | $9,000 | 0.83 |
| Jaguars | JAX | DST | 6.68 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.76 | $9,000 | 0.74 |
| Brandon McManus | JAX | K | 6.52 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.36 | $9,500 | 0.69 |
| Foster Moreau | NO | TE | 4.84 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.51 | $6,500 | 0.74 |
| Kendre Miller | NO | RB | 3.98 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 2.21 | $7,000 | 0.57 |
| Jamal Agnew | JAX | WR | 3.39 | $400 | $600 | 8.48 | $6,000 | 0.57 |
| Tank Bigsby | JAX | RB | 3.00 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 1.36 | $7,000 | 0.43 |
| Brenton Strange | JAX | TE | 2.47 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.47 | $6,500 | 0.38 |
| Jamaal Williams | NO | RB | 1.79 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 0.43 | $7,500 | 0.24 |
| Jimmy Graham | NO | TE | 0.94 | $600 | $900 | 1.57 | $5,500 | 0.17 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Rashid Shaheed: $5,000 DK / $9,500 FD
If you are only building one lineup on this slate and are planning to roster Shaheed, I hope you have an appetite for risk. He’s the ultimate boom or bust play in this game. He is averaging 18.6 yards per reception and tends to get a few deep targets per game. If one or two of those targets hit, we are looking at a potential slate-winner at sub-20% ownership. The downside is that he has a realistic chance of putting up a bagel. He’s seen two or fewer targets in two of six games this season.
Saints vs. Jaguars Player Props
Calvin Ridley less than 53.5 receiving yards (1.77x) – Sleeper
First of all, Sleeper has a promo on Alvin Kamara to get more than 0.5 rushing yards, so I encourage everyone to take advantage of that. As for Ridley, I consider myself an optimist by nature and have a hard time rooting against players. With that said, there are a lot of paths for him not to reach this number. For starters, we might have C.J. Beathard under center. Even if it is Trevor Lawrence, his mobility could be limited, and the Saints have a very good pass defense. Ridley has already struggled with consistency and is now likely to get shadowed by Marshon Lattimore.