The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Seahawks vs. Niners
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Seahawks vs. Niners, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Seahawks vs. Niners
Whether you are reading this before the festivities or right before the game starts, a Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. I’m not going to lie, to you and yours is such a cool expression and one that I’m not sure I’ve used before now. My hope is that you all have green screens from the first two games of the day, but if not, there’s still one last chance on Sunday night. The Niners and Seahawks square off in Seattle in a game that features a 7-point spread and a 44-point total.
Key Injuries
Geno Smith – Questionable, but expected to play
Kenneth Walker – Doubtful
Seattle Seahawks Preview
The Seahawks have a tall task in front of them on Thanksgiving night. They have to face one of the best teams in football and they have to do it with an injured quarterback and a backup running back. Geno Smith is expected to suit up, but is dealing with an elbow injury on his throwing arm. His efficiency has not been as good as it was last season and he’s not scrambling as much, which is why we’ve seen a big dip in his fantasy production. He has only topped 16.5 fantasy points two times all season. To make matters worse, he’s facing a Niners defense that is 5th in pressure rate and 6th in DVOA against the pass.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have been dealing with minor injuries, but have both been taken off the injury report. Lockett played a season-low 57% of the snaps last week against the Rams, but does have the better track record against the Niners. In 5 games against San Francisco since the start of 2021, Lockett has averaged 19.1 fantasy points and Metcalf has averaged 10.5 fantasy points. Now, the Niners haven’t been as good at defending wide receivers this season (25th in fantasy points allowed) and I have been on team Metcalf the last few weeks, but this could be a sneaky spot for Lockett.
While most of the targets are going to funnel to Metcalf and Lockett, they aren’t the only wideouts that deserve consideration. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged just under 6.0 targets over the last 5 games and has 2 touchdowns during that stretch. Jake Bobo will see snaps as well and is only $2,000 on DraftKings. It’s hard to make a case for any of the tight ends on the Seahawks. The Niners have allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to the position this season and Noah Fant and Will Dissly have a combined target share under 10%.
Kenneth Walker left last week’s game against the Rams early, which led to 21 touches for Zach Charbonnet. He wasn’t all that efficient on the ground, but he’s going to be the feature back this week against the Niners. As we always say, volume trumps matchup at the running back position. Charbonnet is also a good pass-catching back, which provides him with a high floor at his current price point. DJ Dallas and Kenny McIntosh will mix in here and there, but are best suited as large-field tournament plays.
We always see crazy things happen on showdown slates, but I won’t be including the Seahawks defense in my lineups. If you are building 10 or more lineups, perhaps they deserve consideration. I’m also not too interested in kicker Jason Myers, as the Seahawks will likely be trailing and may not want to settle for field goals.
San Francisco 49ers Preview
The Niners struggled before their bye, but have looked as good as ever over the last 2 games. They made quick work of the Jaguars and followed that up with a blowout win over the Buccaneers. They now have their sights set on a division rival. Brock Purdy offers one of the higher floors of any player at the quarterback position. His ceiling is capped by his lack of rushing upside, but he has thrown for at least 2 touchdowns in 11 of his last 16 regular season games. He’s an easy click on this showdown slate, as the Seahawks are 25th in DVOA against the pass. With that said, I do prefer his playmakers over him at MVP and Captain.
Brandon Aiyuk has become one of the best receivers in football. There’s actually been a significant gap in usage and production between him and Deebo Samuel. In fact, Aiyuk has a 25% target share and a 46% air yards share, while Samuel has an 18% target share and an 18% air yards share. We’ve seen Samuel get plenty of rushing attempts over the years, but that has subsided a bit since they traded for Christian McCaffrey. Both wide receivers are worth a look on this showdown slate, but I do prefer spending a little more to get up to Aiyuk over Samuel if only playing one.
Jauan Jennings is on the field quite a bit, but he’s mostly running wind sprints at this point. Over the last 3 games, he has a total of 1 catch for 8 yards. He’s only $1,200 on DraftKings, but is best suited as a dart throw in large-field tournaments. George Kittle has been one of the most boom-or-bust players in all of fantasy football. He has topped 22 fantasy points in 4 games and has been held under 6 fantasy points in 4 games. Given his upside, he’s certainly a strong tournament play. On the season, the Seahawks are 14th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Christian McCaffrey has now scored a touchdown in 15 of his last 16 regular season games. His efficiency on the ground is through the roof when Trent Williams is in the lineup and he’s always been a big part of the passing game. We know anything can happen in a single NFL game, but I have a hard time seeing C-Mac not having a big outing against the Seahawks. He’s game script-proof and Seattle has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to running backs this season. Elijah Mitchell will get a handful of touches, but will likely need a touchdown or a blowout to find his way to the optimal lineup. I don’t mind mixing in Kyle Juszczyk on DraftKings ($600), as the Niners will give him a look near the goal line every once in a while.
The Niners defense has played great over the last couple of games and should be able to get pressure on Smith. They have the 5th best pressure rate in the NFL, while the Seahawks have allowed the 8th best pressure rate against them. On top of that, Smith is playing with an injured elbow. I also like the spot for kicker Jake Moody.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
For the first slate in a while, I do like the onslaught builds and I only like them in one direction. I don’t see the Seahawks running away with this game, but could easily see the Niners getting out to a big lead and leaning on their defense. The Niners have a lot of playmakers, but we know where the ball is going on offense — Purdy, C-Mac, Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle. You can build a full offensive stack or mix and match the pieces with the defense and/or Moody. My favorite bring-back on Seattle in this type of build would be Charbonnet or one of the pass catchers.
Seahawks-Niners DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 23.41 | $12,000 | $18,000 | 1.95 | $17,000 | 1.38 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 18.79 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.88 | $15,000 | 1.25 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | QB | 17.17 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.83 | $14,000 | 1.23 |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | 15.68 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 2.24 | $10,000 | 1.57 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 15.53 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.58 | $14,500 | 1.07 |
| D.K. Metcalf | SEA | WR | 14.78 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.76 | $13,000 | 1.14 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 14.65 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.98 | $11,000 | 1.33 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 13.50 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 2.11 | $12,000 | 1.13 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 13.00 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.63 | $12,500 | 1.04 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 8.68 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.61 | $9,500 | 0.91 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 8.29 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.59 | $9,000 | 0.92 |
| Jake Moody | SF | K | 7.22 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.44 | $8,500 | 0.85 |
| Seahawks | SEA | DST | 6.29 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.66 | $8,500 | 0.74 |
| Jason Myers | SEA | K | 6.15 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.28 | $9,000 | 0.68 |
| DeeJay Dallas | SEA | RB | 4.73 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 2.15 | $8,000 | 0.59 |
| Noah Fant | SEA | TE | 3.18 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 0.99 | $7,500 | 0.42 |
| Elijah Mitchell | SF | RB | 3.08 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 0.86 | $7,500 | 0.41 |
| Will Dissly | SEA | TE | 3.03 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.89 | $6,000 | 0.51 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 3.01 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.51 | $8,000 | 0.38 |
| Jake Bobo | SEA | WR | 2.92 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.46 | $7,000 | 0.42 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 2.23 | $600 | $900 | 3.72 | $5,500 | 0.41 |
| Kenny McIntosh | SEA | RB | 2.04 | $200 | $300 | 10.20 | $5,000 | 0.41 |
| Colby Parkinson | SEA | TE | 1.44 | $400 | $600 | 3.60 | $6,000 | 0.24 |
| Ronnie Bell | SF | WR | 0.59 | $200 | $300 | 2.95 | $6,500 | 0.09 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Tyler Lockett: $6,400 DK / $12,000 FD
Given the fact that Lockett has been playing through injuries and is coming off of a season-low in snaps, I would expect him to get overlooked. Why pay this price when you can spend a little more on Metcalf or any of the Niners skill position players. As noted above, Lockett actually has a very nice track record against the Niners. They are likely going to be trailing in this one and they are without Walker, so we can expect a pass-heavy game plan.
Seahawks vs. Niners Player Pick’em
Zach Charbonnet more than 3.5 receptions (1.73x) – Sleeper
Travis Kelce kept the hot streak alive by scoring a touchdown on Monday night. Let’s keep the ball rolling with Charbonnet to get more than 3.5 receptions. With Walker out, he should be the feature back for Seattle. The Niners have a great run defense and the Seahawks will likely be trailing in this one. Add in the fact that he’s a good pass-catching back and the fact that Smith is dealing with an injury, and we could see a lot of dump-offs in this one.