The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Texans vs. Cowboys
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Texans vs. Cowboys, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Texans vs. Cowboys
Happy Monday! Many would have circled this game as a must-watch a couple of months ago, but the Cowboys had other ideas. They have lost 4 games in a row and have dropped to 3-6 on the season with a -82 point differential. To make matters worse, they will be without Dak Prescott for the rest of the season. The Texans don’t have much competition in the AFC South. With a win tonight, they’ll be 2 full games ahead of the Colts. Tonight’s game features a 7-point spread and an ugly 41.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Stefon Diggs – Out
Dak Prescott – Out
Brandin Cooks – Out
Hunter Luepke – Doubtful
Houston Texans Preview
After flashing so much upside in his rookie season and adding Stefon Diggs to the receiving corps, many expected a monster season from C.J. Stroud. While injuries to his receivers haven’t helped, he certainly hasn’t played to expectations. He has been held under 15 fantasy points in 6 of 10 games and each of the last 4 games. Tonight, he squares off against the Cowboys, who are starting to get a little healthier on the defensive side of the ball. Stroud is viable given the nature of Showdown slates, but I have no issue looking elsewhere at MVP/CPT.
I typically like to look at wide receiver usage for each offense, but there hasn’t been a game this season where Diggs was out and Collins was active, so the data wouldn’t be very useful. Collins hasn’t played since Week 5 but practiced in full this week and is not expected to be limited in this game. Before getting hurt, he had a 23% target share and a 43% air-yards share. Keep in mind that he was playing alongside Diggs in those games. He should resume his WR1 role tonight against a very beatable secondary.
Tank Dell hasn’t had a great season, but he did benefit while Collins was out. He scored at least 13 fantasy points in 3 of the last 5 games. With Diggs out, he’s the clear WR2. John Metchie, Robert Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson will all see a handful of snaps, but they don’t project well. Dalton Schultz has a little revenge narrative in his corner, as he squares off against his former team. The problem is that he has yet to crack double-digit fantasy points all season.
Joe Mixon might be the easiest click on the Texans. He is averaging 24.9 touches per game this season and gets to face a Cowboys’ defense that is ranked 28th or worse in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Texans are favored by a touchdown, so we have to like Mixon’s chances of seeing 25 touches. He’s right there with Collins as my favorite play at MVP/CPT.
The Texans can generate pressure and are facing an offensive line that has struggled to protect the quarterback. The Texans are also facing Cooper Rush. I don’t mind taking some shots with their D/ST tonight. Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn has made at least 2 field goals in 6 straight games and in 8 of 10 games this season.
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Dallas Cowboys Preview
Cooper Rush played nearly an entire game of football last week. He threw the ball 23 times and finished the game with 0 fantasy points. It was as impressive of an accomplishment as I have seen in NFL DFS over the last few seasons. He’s been named the starter for tonight’s game, but there’s a chance we could see Trey Lance again too. This matchup is fairly mediocre, as the Texans are 8th in EPA against the pass and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Rush is viable but far from a must on this slate.
We have a very small sample size with Rush under center this season, so there’s very little use in looking at the usage for these wideouts. CeeDee Lamb struggled last week against the Eagles, but he did see 10 targets. The Texans have been solid against the pass in terms of the advanced metrics but have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. If this game stays competitive, Lamb has a chance for a ceiling game.
Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Brooks are the primary outside receivers for the Cowboys. Over the last 2 games, they’ve both seen a target share between 11% and 14% and an air-yards share between 26% and 31%. Both are affordable on DraftKings, but I have to side with Brooks at the $2,600 price point. KaVontae Turpin doesn’t run as many routes but also has a path to the optimal lineup at a $1,200 price point on DraftKings. Jake Ferguson has struggled all season and is facing a team that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. He’s a tough sell even at a discounted price point.
Dare I say it, but Rico Dowdle has looked pretty good this season despite playing on a putrid offense. The Cowboys refuse to move on from Ezekiel Elliott, which doesn’t make much sense given his bad play and where the team is at in the standings. Dowdle should see 12-15 carries in this one and could see several dump-offs with Rush under center. The Texans haven’t been particularly tough against the run, but they have allowed the 5th-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Micah Parsons is back in the lineup, so there’s a chance the Cowboys could force a turnover or two in this one. However, I’m not prioritizing their defense in my Showdown lineups. Brandon Aubrey is one of the best kickers in football but needs the Cowboys to keep the game competitive for him to have a ceiling game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I’m planning to get most of my exposure to the Texans through Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, and Ka’imi Fairbairn. I don’t mind using C.J. Stroud in those lineups as well, but I could see the Texans leaning heavily on Mixon in the ground game. If that’s the case, we might only need one of the pass catchers from Houston instead of Stroud. I don’t have as strong of a take on the Cowboys, so I’ll mix-and-match their players in my lineups. On a per-dollar basis, I love Jalen Brooks on DraftKings and Dalton Schultz on FanDuel.
Texans at Cowboys DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | HOU | RB | 23.18 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 2.11 | $16,500 | 1.40 |
| Nico Collins | HOU | WR | 17.78 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.71 | $15,000 | 1.19 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 16.59 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.69 | $13,000 | 1.28 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 15.57 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.44 | $13,500 | 1.15 |
| Rico Dowdle | DAL | RB | 14.02 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.56 | $11,500 | 1.22 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | QB | 12.80 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.60 | $12,000 | 1.07 |
| Tank Dell | HOU | WR | 10.92 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.16 | $10,500 | 1.04 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 9.53 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.64 | $10,000 | 0.95 |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | 8.34 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.67 | $8,500 | 0.98 |
| Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | K | 8.02 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.49 | $9,000 | 0.89 |
| Texans | HOU | DST | 7.91 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.28 | $9,500 | 0.83 |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 7.90 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.72 | $9,500 | 0.83 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 6.74 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.30 | $9,000 | 0.75 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 4.83 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.34 | $8,500 | 0.57 |
| Jalen Brooks | DAL | WR | 4.46 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.23 | $6,500 | 0.69 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | RB | 4.26 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.64 | $8,000 | 0.53 |
| John Metchie | HOU | WR | 3.32 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 0.83 | $7,000 | 0.47 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 2.70 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.25 | $8,000 | 0.34 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | HOU | RB | 2.68 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 0.89 | $6,000 | 0.45 |
| Cade Stover | HOU | TE | 2.63 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.64 | $6,000 | 0.44 |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | 1.96 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.96 | $5,500 | 0.36 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 1.58 | $600 | $900 | 2.63 | $5,500 | 0.29 |
| Robert Woods | HOU | WR | 1.44 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 0.51 | $7,000 | 0.21 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | WR | 1.10 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 0.32 | $7,500 | 0.15 |
| Dameon Pierce | HOU | RB | 1.06 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 0.44 | $7,500 | 0.14 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jalen Brooks: $2,000 DK / $6,500 FD
Over the last 2 games, Brooks has run a route on 61% of dropbacks, seen an 11% target share, and seen 27% of the team’s air yards. Most of the 9 targets that he’s seen during that stretch came with Cooper Rush under center. He’s cheap, he’s not projected to garner much ownership, and the salary savings really help with the rest of the lineup.
Texans at Cowboys Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 24-13
Joe Mixon more than 91.5 rushing yards (1.80x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We picked up another win last night to improve the season record to 24-13. I generally don’t like to bet the over on rushing yards because game script can go awry and there’s always the risk of injury. However, Mixon has seen at least 24 carries in 5 of his 7 games this season. He has topped 100 rushing yards in 5 of his 7 games this season. The Texans are 7-point favorites against the Cowboys, who are 31st in PFF’s grades against the run and 32nd in EPA against the run.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus