NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report: Week 10
Recent research into predicting fantasy production shows that defense matters in NFL DFS less than we once thought. However, there is still value on the extremes and we can still benefit from understanding the passing game matchups. When we find weakness, we can still attack on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!. Using GridironIQ, we can identify teams that present upside in terms of fantasy point production.
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In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can still gain insight using passing game matchups to help us make decisions for our daily fantasy football contests. Let’s examine some top matchups for this upcoming slate of games.
Week 10 NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report
Cooper Kupp
Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Pass DVOA (Rank): 24th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 2nd
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 1st
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 1st
Sticking with tradition in this specific article, we start out with a wide receiver facing the Seahawks.
You gotta give it to this defense, as they have worked hard to extend their lead in the “team that gives up the most points to opposing wide receivers” category. For example, prior to Week 8, they were giving up 60.23 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers. At that time, the next closest team was the Cleveland Browns at 48.71.
Margin: 11.52
Using our Defense vs. Position tool for this week, we see that they have “improved” to allowing just 59.81 DraftKings points per game to this position. The team closest to them now, the Tennesse Titans, are at 46.88.
Margin: 12.93
So, congrats to the Seahawks on extending their lead despite technically improving ever so slightly!
Seriously though, you can look at the numbers. The naked eye shows it too when you watch their games. Everything is just too easy. Then you add in the fact that teams are often playing behind due to the brilliance of Russell Wilson, and they throw even more. Then you see in GridironIQ that this Seattle defense allows the most plays per game, and that is just more times for wide receivers to rack up fantasy points.
So to no one’s surprise, this all equals fantasy gold for opposing wide receivers. Fire up Cooper Kupp. Fire up Robert Woods. It’s hard to envision a scenario in which at least one of them doesn’t have a monster game.
Jarvis Landry
Opponent: Houston Texans
Pass DVOA (Rank): 23rd
Expected Points Added (Rank): 4th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 12th
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 5th
There are a lot of signs pointing to this being a potentially big game for Landry, and I don’t think anyone is going to play him in Week 10.
Let’s start off by looking at what happened in their last game, Week 8 against the Raiders. Baker Mayfield threw the ball 25 times…and 11 of them were to Landry! Now obviously, the fact that they only connected on four of those throws makes the game log look pathetic, but it is the volume that is going to win out more often than not. And the fact that the Browns had a bye in Week 9 removes this team even further away in our DFS memories.
Yes, the Browns are welcoming back some important players this week in Nick Chubb (likely) and Austin Hooper (definitely), but I’m not so sure it matters as much as everyone might think. Even when Chubb was playing back in Weeks 1-3, he and Kareem Hunt were often splitting most of the snaps anyways. And Harrison Bryant and David Njoku filled in admirably for Hooper while he was out.
So the situation isn’t as appealing for Landry in terms of volume as it was in that Week 8 game, but I still think he gets flooded with targets. Those Texans defense numbers listed above make this a borderline elite matchup for opposing wide receivers. If Landry can haul in some more of these targets (and maybe fall in the end zone for a change?), he has a chance to easily pay off his price tags.
Davante Adams
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Pass DVOA (Rank): 32nd
Expected Points Added (Rank): 1st
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 4th
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 10th
I would be remiss if I didn’t list the best fantasy wide receiver in the league getting to face a defense that ranks dead last in Pass Defense DVOA while also allowing the most EPA (Expected Points Added) on passing plays. If I didn’t, you’d read this article, see no ‘Adams against the Jags’ mentioned, and assume the matchup was a more difficult than it is. He’d erupt for another big game, you wouldn’t play him, and then you’d be wondering why this doofus Meansy is even writing an article.
No one wants that! But just in case you are new to NFL DFS:
1) Davante Adams is good at catching footballs.
2) The Jags defense is one of the worst in the league at stopping the pass.
Now, at this point, I think we can pretty much tie a bow on the “why Adams is a good play against this defense” talk. The real discussion should center around whether or not you want to prioritize this massive salary (most expensive on the slate) in a game in which the Packers are -13.
My initial thoughts are that ownership could be inflated due to the fact that we have some extremely appealing cheap value at running back. Oh, and you know what else might inflate his ownership? The fact that he has averaged 38 DraftKings points in his last three games. Yeah, I’d say those box scores are going to be hard for people to get away from. Regardless, we’ll still want to monitor Projected Ownership as Sunday inches closer.
When it comes down to decision-making time on Sunday morning, you can always revert back to Adams vs. the Jags if you are having trouble figuring out where to allocate the bulk of your salary cap. While there are clearly paths to him just being ‘okay’ from a fantasy perspective, there are just as clear paths to him continuing this silly streak of monster games.