NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report: Week 13
Recent research into predicting fantasy production shows that defense matters in NFL DFS less than we once thought. However, there is still value on the extremes and we can still benefit from understanding the passing game matchups. When we find weakness, we can still attack on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!. Using GridironIQ, we can identify teams that present upside in terms of fantasy point production.
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In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can still gain insight using passing game matchups to help us make decisions for our daily fantasy football contests. Let’s examine some top matchups for this upcoming slate of games.
Week 13 NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report
Justin Jefferson
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Pass DVOA (Rank): 31st
Expected Points Added (Rank): 3rd
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 4th
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 7th
Folks, matchups don’t get much better than this. But can we all agree that we won’t overlook it like we did last week? Our guy Dan Back was absolutely perplexed on the 2% ownership for Jarvis Landry, who cooked this Jaguars defense for eight receptions, 143 yards, and one touchdown.
Pretty much everywhere you look in Gridiron shows a sea of green for this passing game matchup. One of the few “red spots” is Pass%, as opposing offenses have thrown at just the 25th highest rate against Jacksonville. Of course, a lot of that stems from the fact that teams playing Jacksonville are usually in the lead!
You will notice that I have selected Jefferson as my preferred Vikings wide receiver over Thielen (who is set to return Sunday after missing Week 12). It’s hard to go wrong with either of these guys when looking at the numbers. But then we add in the fact that Jefferson does my favorite touchdown celebration dance in the entire league??? Yeah, I’m gonna have to roll with him then!
Sterling Shepard
Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Pass DVOA (Rank): 29th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 2nd
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 1st
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 1st
Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. It is very possible that the Giants are without Daniel Jones this week, as he suffered a hamstring injury this past weekend against the Bengals. That would mean Colt McCoy gets another crack at things under center. I don’t know about you, but that doesn’t exactly give me the warm and fuzzies for any Giants pass-catcher. So let’s move ahead to the good news then!
Wide receivers against the Seahawks…hooray! The Seahawks haven’t been on a main slate for two straight weeks, and things just don’t feel the same writing this article without being able to mention them. It is worth noting that they have gotten slightly better of late. For example, prior to Week 10, they were allowing 59.81 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers. Now, as we head into Week 13, they are allowing 51.36. That is still the most by a wide margin, but at least things have been heading in the right direction.
Still though, everything points to this continuing to be one of the best possible matchups for opposing passing games. The Seahawks are still 29th in Pass Defense DVOA. They have still given up the most passing yards in the entire league and are second in highest EPA (Expected Points Added) against the pass. Furthermore, opposing offenses have the highest pass frequency agains them too, which I’m guessing we see again on Sunday considering they are -10 against the Giants.
Amongst these Giants pass-catchers, Shepard gets the nod for me. Since he returned in Week 8, he has seen anywhere between 8-10 targets in four of the last five games (6 in the other). I wouldn’t blame you at all for going with Evan Engram either, as he (41) has slightly out-targeted Shepard (40) in that same span of games.
Michael Thomas
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Pass DVOA (Rank): 19th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 8th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 2nd
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 3rd
The Falcons have bled (bleeded? No, I’m pretty sure it’s bled) fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. They, the Dallas Cowboys, and the Minnesota Vikings “lead” a tier of defenses (after the aforementioned Seahawks) that allow somewhere between 40-43 DraftKings points per game to this position.
A lot of the underlying numbers explain why too. The Seahawks allow the most passing yards in the league; the Falcons are second. The Seahawks allow the highest frequency of passes in the league; the Falcons are second. Where “taking running backs against the Falcons” used to be the norm in fantasy football, that has now changed to wanting to take wide receivers and quarterbacks against them.
That being said, rostering any skill position player in this Saints offense requires a leap of faith while Drew Brees remains on the sideline and they roll with Taysom Hill. But if it is going to be anyone, I’d want it to be Thomas. I think we can all agree to just completely disregard whatever happened in that game last week against a Broncos team that didn’t even have a freakin’ quarterback. I’m not even sure we can classify that as an NFL game, and I am only 50% joking when I say that.
If we look back to Week 11 though, we saw that Thomas was Taysom’s safety blanket. Taysom might have only thrown the ball 23 times, but 12 of them were to Thomas. And MT hauled in nine of them for 104 yards.
If the Saints don’t have the luxury of playing from ahead—like they have in both of Taysom’s starts—they are going to have to air it out more than they probably want to. If that is the case, the matchup certainly enhances MT’s chances of another big game. Whether or not he and Taysom can connect like they did against this team two weeks ago is anybody’s guess though.