NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report: Week 6
Recent research into predicting fantasy production shows that defense matters in NFL DFS less than we once thought. However, there is still value on the extremes and we can still benefit from understanding the passing game matchups. When we find weakness, we can still attack on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!. Using GridironIQ, we can identify teams that present upside in terms of fantasy point production. In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can still gain insight using passing game matchups to help us make decisions for our daily fantasy football contests.
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For Week 6 specifically, I don’t think we have to break the bank to find some receiving options with high ceilings and relatively stable floors. Let’s examine some top matchups for this upcoming slate of games and see which pass-catchers stand out.
NFL Week 6 DFS Pass Game Matchups Report
Adam Thielen
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Pass DVOA (Rank): 30th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 1st
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 1st
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 7th
I don’t think Thielen could get a better matchup than he will see this weekend against Atlanta. Not only do they rank 30th in Pass DVOA, but they have the highest EPA Pass (Expected Points Added) and have given up the most passing yards in the league (1,679).
With Stefon Diggs moving on to Buffalo this season, we all expected Thielen to be an absolute target hog for the Vikings. Considering he has a 33.1% market share of targets on the season, it is safe to say that is exactly what happened. And it has spiked even more the past two weeks: 45.5% in Week 4 and 34.2% in Week 5. Considering he also hauled in three scores in those two games, it’s no surprise the game log looks the way it does.
On a slate that is lacking in terms of “studs” to pay up for, Thielen is one of my favorite ways to allocate salary at any position. And the best part is, I still think he is too cheap.
A.J. Brown
Opponent: Houston Texans
Pass DVOA (Rank): 12th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 5th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 14th
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 14th
Brown didn’t miss a beat on Tuesday in his first game since Week 1. He hauled in seven of his nine targets against Buffalo for 82 yards and a score.
On this quick turnaround in Week 6, he gets a good-but-not-great matchup against the Texans. The Texans are around neutral in all of Pass Defense DVOA, Pass Yards Allowed, and Fantasy Points Allowed to WR. However, they do give up the fifth most Expected Points Added in the passing game.
And besides, targeting Brown in Week 6 is more about a shallower than normal wide receivers crop on this slate, his mid tier price tag ($6,500 on FD; $5,600 on DK), and a bunch of volume (we have him with a team-leading 27% market share of targets for this matchup against Houston). Thielen is my favorite wide receiver on the slate for reasons already mentioned, but Brown isn’t that far behind. He is much cheaper too and probably comes in meaningfully lower owned.
Kenny Golladay
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Pass DVOA (Rank): 32nd
Expected Points Added (Rank): 2nd
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 3rd
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 13th
I’m old enough to remember when the Jaguars had one of the most stout pass defenses in the league. And while that doesn’t make me that old, those days are long gone.
This version of the Jaguars, however, ranks dead last in Pass Defense DVOA. In the past few weeks alone, they have been shredded by guys like Will Fuller (8 catches for 161 yards and 1 TD) and Tyler Boyd (7 catches for 90 yards).
As Stafford’s favorite target on a team with an 29-point implied total, I am looking for Golladay to continue his current two-game streak of having a receiving touchdown. Except in this matchup against this awful Jaguars pass defense, I think he clears 100 yards receiving this time as well.
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