NFL DFS Pick Six Show: Week 1
Dean Shavelson from RotoGrinders is joined by John Daigle and Rich Hribar (aka LordReebs) to break down their top three games for the Week 1 NFL slate. They also share some favorite picks at each skill position, helping you prepare for the week ahead!
Show Highlights
Slate Structure & Game Selection
- Week 1 analysis centers on the main DFS slate, intentionally excluding Thursday and Monday night games to focus on three core matchups.
- The panel discusses the significance of player pricing anomalies due to early salary releases, which lead to increased chalk and condensed ownership.
Watch the video below to hear all about Week 1’s NFL DFS slate!
Game 1 Breakdown: Bengals vs. Browns
- The group explores matchup trends, team totals, and key DFS variables.
- Notable topics include Joe Flacco as a salary-saving quarterback option, debate over expected running back usage (Jerome Ford vs. Dylan Sampson), and the projected ownership spike for Chase Brown.
- David Njoku is identified as a chalky tight end, with detailed analysis of defensive weaknesses and coaching impacts.
Game 2 Breakdown: Dolphins vs. Colts
- Miami’s offensive volatility is dissected, from Tyreek Hill’s injury uncertainty to just how viable De’Von Achane is as a DFS play.
- Insights are offered on the Colts’ defensive upgrades, Jonathan Taylor’s prospects, and RB value differentials, with notes on cash vs. tournament quarterback choices.
- The dialogue weighs the stack potential of Tua Tagovailoa and Daniel Jones’ undervalued DFS floor, while also discussing the impact of indoor games and roster-construction strategies.
Game 3 Breakdown: 49ers vs. Seahawks
- The panel anticipates a slow-paced, defensive matchup and discusses implications for the running backs, especially Christian McCaffrey at a decreased price.
- The ambiguous Seattle backfield (Kenneth Walker III & Zach Charbonnet) is scrutinized, with concerns about health and snap splits influencing their ceilings.
- San Francisco’s rookie WRs and defensive youth movement are analyzed for their effect on target shares and game environment.
Positional Plays & Projected Ownership Trends
- Hosts provide a comprehensive rundown of the top DFS plays at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver for both cash games and tournaments:
- Jayden Daniels, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, and Bryce Young are spotlighted as core QBs by salary and expected usage.
- Chalk RBs include James Conner, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, and Christian McCaffrey.
- Wide receivers covered include Emeka Egbuka, Mike Evans, Nico Collins, and Jakobi Meyers, with a strong emphasis on optimal leverage, contrarian pivots, and team correlation.
- The panel shares opinions on positional chalk, possible low-ownership sleepers, and game-stack strategies for small-field and large-field contests.