NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 3
Our panel of experts is here to give you their insights on NFL DFS today for the Week 3 main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. They’re ready to answer key questions that will assist you in making those crucial lineup-building decisions. Curious about Noto’s favorite correlation? Or perhaps you’re wondering about Davis Mattek’s favorite contrarian play? Read their thoughts below!
NFL DFS DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey: Week 3 Picks
Rank your three favorite players for cash games, in order:
| Analyst | Rank 1 | Rank 2 | Rank 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notorious | Jahmyr Gibbs | Kenneth Walker | Parker Washington |
| stevietpfl | Kenneth Walker III | Jahmyr Gibbs | Dalton Schultz |
| Krayton | Kenneth Walker III | Jahmyr Gibbs | Dalton Schultz |
| ebeimfohr | Kenneth Walker III | Dalton Schultz | Parker Washington |
| ncorfield8k | Kenneth Walker | Jahmyr Gibbs | Dalton Schultz (DK) / Garrett Wilson (FD) |
| Davis Mattek | Kenneth Walker III | Ashton Jeanty | Parker Washington |
| Jordan Vanek | Ashton Jeanty | Kenneth Walker III | Parker Washington |
What is your favorite correlation and why?
Notorious: I love the NYJ/DET game stack. The Lions already started the season without their top two safeties, and their secondary has only lost more and more pieces since. It’s only been two weeks, but no team has allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than the Lions. Add in a pass-heavy game script for the Jets (6.5-point underdogs on the road), and we have a tremendous spot for the passing game. Garrett Wilson is my favorite option here, but I don’t mind mixing in Geno Smith and Breece Hall. There are no shortage of options on the other side. Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged 29 fantasy points per game in the first 2 weeks. The Jets have been tough against the run, but they have faced the Packers and Titans, who haven’t been able to run the ball. Plus, Gibbs is plenty involved in the passing game. I also like Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams. Every lineup I build will have at least 3 players from this game.
stevietpfl: Geno Smith + Garrett Wilson + Jahmyr Gibbs – I love playing cheap quarterbacks in tournaments, and this is my favorite for Week 3. The Lions have allowed 329 passing yards per game, and they’ve allowed 33.5 fantasy points per game, which is the most through the first 2 weeks. Smith only has 1 passing touchdown to start the season, but he’s still an upgrade from what we saw last season. In this fast-paced game, I think Smith is going to shine. Wilson only has a 21.5% target rate, but he has 37.5% of the team’s air yards. I expect the Lions to get up early and for the Jets to throw the ball a lot more in the 2nd half. Gibbs followed up his Week 1 game with 113 total yards and a touchdown in Week 2 against the Bills. He has a 77% snap rate and 15.6% target rate through the first 2 games. The Jets defense has been strong to start the season, but the workload is what I like for Gibbs.
Krayton: Garrett Wilson + Jahmyr Gibbs – Wilson has been a favorite tournament target of mine to start the season, and I love this spot for him. The Lions defense is vulnerable against the pass, and Wilson should have an opportunity for a ceiling game. He is averaging 7 targets and 68 yards per game to start the season. His ownership is typically very low, but he has a nice price tag on both sites. On the other side of the game, Gibbs is the first guy I want exposure to, as he continues to get rushing attempts in the high double digits, and he’s gotten 5 and 8 targets in the first 2 games. He is the pay-up option I want at RB this week, and although he will likely be popular, I don’t see Wilson being as popular since there are so many good WRs priced similar to him who are projected for more ownership.
ebeimfohr: Bryce Young + Tetairoa McMillan – Young and the Panthers passing game has far exceeded expectations in the first 2 weeks, and the field isn’t buying it. The Panthers have the 4th-highest PROE in the league, and the targets are extremely condensed to just a few guys, with McMillan as the lead dog. Jalen Coker has put up better counting stats, but McMillan has the same target share and the biggest air-yards share on the team (40%). The Browns pass defense was torched by the Jags in Week 1, and some missed throws, drops, and weather made their Week 2 seem better than it was. This is an exploitable unit, and McMillan looks set for a big leap in year two, especially with Young playing really well to start the season, but they are drawing no projected ownership again this week. Coker is also banged up and questionable to play, so we may see a larger target share for McMillan this week as well.
ncorfield8k: Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid + Ladd McConkey – If the Chargers can keep this game close, it should be another huge week for Josh Allen. The Bills rank 6th in pass rate over expectation (PROE), and both offenses are top 12 in pace. Kincaid’s 23.3% target share ranks 4th of all tight ends. McConkey has been slowed by injury, but he was a clear priority for the Chargers early in Week 1. He should bounce back after another week of recovery.
Davis Mattek: Patrick Mahomes + Xavier Worthy + Travis Kelce – The field will be all over Kenneth Walker III, but the ownership will likely not land on his teammates. The Chiefs were super-negative PROE in Week 1 but again were well above league average in Week 2. Worthy and Kelce are 1st and 3rd, respectively, on the team in targets, with Rashee Rice trailing behind. Kelce and Worthy’s salaries combine to equal one Jahmyr Gibbs. Mahomes is clearly feeling himself again and playing at an extremely high level and will be facing an opponent that will be helpless to stop them. I love Chiefs stacks as leverage on Walker ownership.
Jordan Vanek: Kyler Murray + Justin Jefferson + Jordan Addison – According to Fantasy Points, the Vikings have had the 3rd-highest aDOT in the NFL against single-high coverage over the last 3 years. That’s the primary coverage Tampa Bay has played, so the big-play upside is significant in this matchup. Jefferson and Addison are both capable of ceiling performances at low pOWN% and relatively affordable price tags for their talent. Murray is coming off a concussion, but I still expect him to utilize his legs, especially with the Vikings dealing with injuries throughout the RB room. That rushing upside, combined with the potential for explosive plays downfield, makes this one of my favorite stacks.
Who’s your favorite contrarian play (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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About the Author
Robert Brown (aka Epignosis) was having lunch at a sports bar. A football game was on. He remarked to his wife that if he could have a second life, he’d like to be someone who enjoyed watching sports. That enjoyment began when he signed up for a fantasy football league that needed one more player. Since then, he has enjoyed playing NFL, NBA, and (especially) MLB DFS. When not teaching American literature, editing content for RotoGrinders (which he has done since 2019), or making lineups, Epignosis is rocking out or jazzing it up on one of several possible instruments.