NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 13
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 13
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: Brock Purdy + Christian McCaffrey – Give me all of the Niners offensive touchdowns this week. Even if C-Mac doesn’t have a big receiving game, I still think the matchup and motivation is good enough for them to both pay off their respective salaries. The Eagles only have one loss this season, which has masked how bad they have been defensively. They have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. While they have been tough on running backs, the Bills had success on the ground last week, and C-Mac has long been matchup-proof (especially when Trent Williams is active). After losing to the Eagles in the playoffs last season when Purdy couldn’t even throw the ball, the Niners have had this game circled on the schedule for quite some time.
squirrelpatrol: Zack Moss + Tyreek Hill – I know they’re in different NFL games, but in our DFS lineups, there might not be two more correlated players than the underpriced Moss now back in the workhorse role with Jonathan Taylor out and the most expensive player on the slate, Tyreek, facing the awful Commanders pass defense. These two could see some of the highest ownership we’ve seen this season, and I’ll be right there with the field aiming to get different elsewhere in my lineups.
Krayton: Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill – This could not be a better matchup for Tua and Tyreek against a Washington defense that has allowed the most receiving TDs this season (28) and the 2nd-most receiving yards (3,330). This matchup is a fantasy gold mine, and Tyreek continues to put up huge numbers each and every week. He is averaging 27.5 DK / 21.5 FD points this season. I will be overweight the field on this stack, and I will also be mixing-and-matching Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, and Raheem Mostert in my stacks to try to capture all of the offensive points.
ebeimfohr: Tua Tagovailoa stacks + Washington bring-backs – It would be easy to just use Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle as my correlation with Tua, but I’m going to take it to one next step. The Dolphins stack is a home run on this slate. The entire slate basically starts and ends with how you handle the Dolphins. I don’t see a real way in which the Dolphins fail against the most pathetic defense in the NFL, so I will be loading up on them, led by Tua stacks. The thing that’s most interesting is that Washington has been so spread out and inconsistent that no Commanders are really generating any real interest from the field. But the Commanders are the most pass-heavy team in the NFL, and if the Dolphins are really going to post a big number, it’s nearly impossible for zero Commanders to have strong games, given the fact they are a lock to throw at the highest rate on the slate.
Stevietpfl: Sam Howell + Curtis Samuel + Tyreek Hill – Sam Howell has 486 pass attempts this season, which is 40.5 passing attempts per game. It’s the most in the NFL. He’s also averaging 4.6 deep ball attempts per game, which is the highest in the NFL. Howell is averaging 278.2 passing yards per game and has 3,339 passing yards, which is the most in the NFL. I’ll be pairing Howell with Samuel, Dotson, and McLaurin. I will be double stacking with Washington a lot in this game. Tyreek has a 33.7% target share and a 36.7% target rate, which are both the highest in the NFL this season. He’s also averaging eight catches for 120.4 yards per game. The Dolphins are my favorite team on the slate, and Tyreek should smash against this weak secondary.
eys819: Sam Howell + De’Von Achane + Tyreek Hill + Curtis Samuel – This is my favorite game environment, and I want to stack it up in unique ways. Using Howell over the more popular Tua Tagovailoa saves some salary and helps differentiate the stack. Washington throws the ball at the highest rate in the NFL, and Howell has multiple weeks this season with 25+ fantasy points. I also think using Achane and Tyreek together will be a little off the board. The field will likely be hesitant to roster Achane after his last attempt to return from injury was unsuccessful. Samuel quietly had 12 targets last week and hit 100 yards for the first time this season. He comes at a nice salary and pOWN% discount to teammate Terry McLaurin.
Bobby Gomes: Brock Purdy + Christian McCaffrey + Deebo Samuel and/or Brandon Aiyuk – My favorite correlation is using Purdy with CMC, Deebo, and/or Aiyuk to exploit the highly suspect Eagles secondary. Darius Slay and James Bradberry have been toasted all season. The Eagles currently rank 29th in passing yards allowed and 31st in passing touchdowns allowed. Their run defense has been suspect over the last 3 games, allowing 138 rushing yards per game. CMC is going to give the Eagles back seven a fit. Deebo is affordable and also gives us a little bit of added rushing equity.
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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