NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 18 - Main Slate
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 18 (Main Slate)
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: This is a rare slate where I won’t actively build correlation into my lineups. There are so many good point-per-dollar options that I could see the tournament-winning lineup having very little correlation. With that said, it’s hard not to like Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb. They are two of the top spends of the slate and are facing a Commanders defense that is dead last in both DVOA against the pass and dropback EPA. Washington can’t get any pressure on the quarterback, and the Cowboys can win their division with a victory this week. As long as the game doesn’t get too out of hand, we should see Dallas stay aggressive with their play-calling.
squirrelpatrol: Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb – There is a lot of uncertainty (and a lot of options) on this slate, but we might be overthinking things if we avoid the Dak to Lamb connection. Dallas has the highest implied team total on the week and is facing a Commanders defense that has given up the most yards per game, points per game, and receiving touchdowns in the NFL. Dallas needs this win for the playoff implications, and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas. I don’t expect the Commanders to have the personnel to stop Dak and Lamb.
Krayton: Jordan Love + Christian Watson and/or Jayden Reed – Green Bay needs to win this game to make the playoffs, and I think this game could go overlooked with both Watson and Reed questionable heading into Week 18, as they both have had limited practices this week. I obviously will be monitoring their status very closely, but if Watson and Reed aren’t able to go, I will still be loading up on other options, as we saw Love put up 245 yards and 3 TDs the first time these two teams met earlier this season. Both Reed and Watson are big playmakers, and I love getting exposure to this game when other games such as PHI/NYG and DAL/WAS will be much more popular. On the other side, I will be getting to lots of DJ Moore. Even though the Bears are out of the playoffs, Justin Fields is looking to make a great impression in his last regular season game, and his favorite target is Moore by far.
ebeimfohr: Justin Fields + DJ Moore – As you know, Week 18 is a unique animal, and it’s difficult to find stacks to feel comfortable with. Luckily, we’ve got the Bears trying to see what they have in Fields heading into the offseason, and he happens to have a total alpha WR in Moore against a Packers defense that has been terrible this season (plus Darnell Mooney is out). We can lock in Fields’ huge upside (and floor) at the QB position with the star WR he locks in on just about every play, and we know we have salary savers elsewhere due to players resting that allow us to still jam in other spend-ups like Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb.
Stevietpfl: Geno Smith + DK Metcalf + James Conner – Seattle needs to win and Green Bay to lose to make the playoffs. Arizona ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass, and they’re 27th in pressuring the quarterback. Smith should have more time to throw in this game and will hopefully look to his star wide receiver. Metcalf is averaging 1.7 deep targets per game, and he has a 39.6% air yards share, which is the 7th-highest in the NFL. He has one of the highest ceilings on a slate with a lot of uncertainty. Seattle is allowing 134 rushing yards per game this season, which is the 3rd-most in the NFL. Over its last 5 games, Seattle is allowing 170 rushing yards per game, which is the most in the NFL. Conner and this Arizona team aren’t playing for anything, but they can play spoiler for the second straight week.
eys819: Nick Mullens + Justin Jefferson – This will likely be a popular stack, but there are plenty of ways to differentiate this week. The last time the Lions and Vikings met, Mullens threw for over 400 yards and Jefferson put up a 6-141-1 line. I am expecting similar results in this game. The Vikings have thrown the ball at the 4th-highest rate in the league this season and get an indoor game at the time of year when it matters most. Detroit has been a pass-funnel defense this season, allowing the 5th-fewest rushing yards and the 8th-most passing yards. An offense that loves to throw the ball facing a defense that is susceptible to the pass offers extreme upside.
Bobby Gomes: Jalen Hurts + A.J. Brown – The Hurts/AJB connection has been nothing short of magical this season, and that should continue as the Eagles are playing for NFC East supremacy. This duo is a few bucks cheaper than the Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb stack, but it’s splitting hairs when talking about expected fantasy output. AJB has come back to earth recently but still has 10+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games. They’ll get a Giants secondary that is dinged up and was torched in Week 16 by Hurts. We also get the added rushing equity from Hurts each week.
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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