The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Bengals vs. Falcons
For this Week 9 Sunday Morning Football matchup on 11/8 featuring the Bengals vs. Falcons, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Bengals vs. Falcons
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We have another game overseas this week, this one in Madrid, Spain. There are far worse things in life than waking up to football playing. The Bengals are coming off a win over the Titans where Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and JaMarr Chase all had huge fantasy outings. They are 5-2 with a point differential of +48. The Falcons have struggled with consistency and sit at 3-5 with a point differential of -18. Both teams are firmly live to win their divisions.
This game features a 3-point spread and a 52.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Saturday, 10:00 PM ET)
▪️ RB Brian Robinson Jr. (ATL) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ WR Zachariah Branch (ATL) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ WR Andrei Iosivas (CIN) — Out (thumb)
▪️ TE Erick All Jr. (CIN) — Out (knee)
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
Joe Burrow has scored at least 23 fantasy points in each of the last 5 games and put up 45 fantasy points last week against the Titans. He offers the highest floor of any player on the slate and is firmly viable at CPT and MVP. The only thing to consider is that when he throws for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns, one of his wide receivers often outscores him. The matchup isn’t as favorable as you might expect, as the Falcons are 11th in EPA against the pass and 8th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Bengals’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Tee Higgins: 84% route part., 23% target share, 41% air-yards share, 17.6 XFPPG
🔹 JaMarr Chase: 81% route part., 23% target share, 32% air-yards share, 18.4 XFPPG
🔹 Mike Gesicki (TE): 55% route part., 9% target share, 14% air-yards share, 9.4 XFPPG
🔹 Dohnte Meyers: 51% route part., 9% target share, 6% air-yards share, 5.0 XFPPG
🔹 Drew Sample (TE): 27% route part., 3% target share, 0% air-yards share, 2.3 XFPPG
The Bengals have other pass catchers, but their offense flows through Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase. The two have combined for a 46% target share and a 74% air yards share this season. We often think of Chase as the clear WR1 in this offense, but Higgins has averaged nearly as many expected fantasy points per game (17.6 to 18.4). We’ve seen the Burrow double-stack work, so I wouldn’t hesitate to use both in the same lineup. More importantly, I am making a rule in LineupHQ to include at least one of the two in each of my builds.
Dohnte Meyers is the WR3 for the Bengals and has had a couple of decent outings, but he only has a 9% target share this season. Mike Gesicki is a tight end in name, but he lines up like a receiver. He has seen a 9% target share and a 14% air yards share this season. Drew Sample will be on the field as well, but he’s mostly used for blocking. As far as the matchup, the Falcons are 9th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 23rd to tight ends.
The Bengals have a high pass rate over expectation, but Chase Brown continues to have an elite role in this offense. The problem this season has been a lack of touchdowns. He’s scored a total of 1 touchdown in 7 games. He has seen 57% of the carries inside the 5-yard line and continues to be a big part of the passing game, so I expect some positive touchdown regression moving forward. There’s a good chance he’ll be lower-owned than Burrow, Higgins, and Chase.
The Bengals have been mediocre defensively this season, while the Falcons have had one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in football. I’m not looking to prioritize Cincinnati’s defense on this slate. Kicker Evan McPherson is a solid value play.
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Atlanta Falcons Preview
Michael Penix is coming off his worst game of the season. He was 8-for-24 for 125 yards and 4 interceptions against the Buccaneers. You don’t see a stat line like that very often. If you play in season-long leagues where interceptions are worth -2 fantasy points, Penix was in the negative last week. He’ll look to bounce back against the Bengals, who are 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Penix is viable on this slate, but he doesn’t offer rushing upside, and I would argue he has a lower ceiling than Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Bijan Robinson, and Drake London.
Falcons’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Drake London: 86% route part., 25% target share, 41% air-yards share, 12.0 XFPPG
🔹 Jahan Dotson: 71% route part., 13% target share, 34% air-yards share, 6.5 XFPPG
🔹 Kyle Pitts Sr. (TE): 62% route part., 14% target share, 11% air-yards share, 6.8 XFPPG
🔹 Olamide Zaccheaus: 42% route part., 6% target share, 6% air-yards share, 2.1 XFPPG
🔹 Austin Hooper (TE): 20% route part., 5% target share, 3% air-yards share, 2.6 XFPPG
Drake London is the clear alpha pass catcher for the Falcons. He has a 25% target share and a 41% air yards share. Unfortunately, he can only be as good as his quarterback allows. If Penix bounces back, London should be in for a nice outing. Jahan Dotson hasn’t done much in the box score, but the underlying usage is encouraging for a player at his price point. He has a 13% target share and a massive 34% air yards share.
Olamide Zaccheaus has run a route on 42% of dropbacks this season, but he has only seen 6% of the team’s targets. Kyle Pitts struggled to start the season, but he has scored over 13 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. Austin Hooper doesn’t run many routes these days and can be ignored in DFS. The Bengals are a great matchup for all pass catchers, ranking 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 30th to tight ends.
Bijan Robinson has had 3 games with fewer than 12 fantasy points and 3 games with more than 30 fantasy points. He’s been extremely boom-or-bust this season. The role is elite, and he’s one of the most talented running backs in the NFL. It’s also worth noting that Brian Robinson Jr. has been ruled out. The Bengals are 20th in both EPA against the run and schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Falcons haven’t been great defensively and are facing one of the best offenses in the NFL. They are an easy fade on this slate. Kicker Nick Folk is viable, but I prefer Evan McPherson if targeting a kicker.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
The projected ownership at CPT is a tad surprising, as Drake London and Bijan Robinson are expected to be more popular than Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and Ja’Marr Chase. If that’s the case, I’ll take my chances with the Bengals in the multiplier spot.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
Bijan Robinson projects for the highest ownership at MVP on FanDuel, followed by Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins (thanks to a discounted price point). If you want to be super contrarian, Chase Brown is an intriguing option at the multiplier spot.
Prop Pick – Bengals vs. Falcons
Season Record: 12-9
✅ Chase Brown o49.5 rushing yards
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 9, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data