The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Colts vs. Chiefs
For this Week 2 Sunday Night Football matchup on 9/20 featuring the Colts vs. Chiefs, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Colts vs. Chiefs
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
You are likely reading this after the Week 2 main slate, so I hope it went according to plan.
The Chiefs get another primetime game after beating the Broncos on Monday night. We shouldn’t put too much stock in a single game, but they looked like a completely different team than last season. They were efficient offensively and shut down Bo Nix and Denver’s offense. The Colts scored a quick touchdown against the Ravens in their opener, but it was all downhill after that. They lost 41-23 at home.
This is one of those games that could get out of hand, but the spread is only set at 6.5 points.
Key Injuries (as of Sunday, 11:00 AM ET)
▪️ WR Ashton Dulin (IND) — Out (ankle)
▪️ RB DJ Giddens (IND) — Questionable (knee)
▪️ T Josh Simmons (KC) — Out (back)
▪️ S Chamarri Conner (KC) — Out (knee)
▪️ DT Chris Jones (KC) — Questionable (calf)
▪️ CB Mansoor Delane (KC) — Questionable (shoulder)
Indianapolis Colts Preview
Daniel Jones struggled in his first start back from an Achilles tear last season. He only threw for 166 yards on 31 pass attempts and only had 1 rushing attempt for 4 yards. I feel good about fading him in the early part of the season, especially on full slates. It’s a little different in Showdown, as a quarterback’s raw fantasy score is more valuable than it is on a full slate, but I still wouldn’t call him a priority tonight. He struggled against the blitz last season, and Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs are not afraid to send extra pressure. Jones is viable at UTIL/FLEX, but I’m not considering him at the multiplier positions.
Colts’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 Alec Pierce (IND): 65% route participation, 19% target share, 52% air yards share
🔹 Keenan Allen (IND): 74% route participation, 19% target share, 11% air yards share
🔹 Tyler Warren (IND, TE): 82% route participation, 16% target share, 12% air yards share
🔹 Josh Downs (IND): 85% route participation, 13% target share, 21% air yards share
Alec Pierce was the talk of the offseason. He signed the big contract and was expected to be the WR1 for the Colts with Michael Pittman now in Pittsburgh, but he’s been struggling with a heel injury. However, he played in Week 1 and was a full participant in practice on Friday, so it doesn’t seem to be a major issue. He had a 19% target share and a 52% air yards share in Week 1. That only turned into 61 receiving yards, but the underlying usage was encouraging.
Keenan Allen has primarily been a slot receiver throughout his career, but he ran 72% of his routes from the slot in Week 1, while Josh Downs ran 91% of his routes from the slot. The Chiefs have historically been tough on outside receivers, so the matchup could set up well for Downs, who actually led the Colts’ receivers in snaps last week. I will note that Trent McDuffie is no longer on the roster, so outside receivers might have more success against Kansas City this season.
Tyler Warren only had 3 receptions for 13 yards in the opener, but he did catch a touchdown. He’s one of the most talented tight ends in the NFL, and he ran a route on 82% of dropbacks in Week 1. It’s a tough decision with these pass catchers, as Warren, Downs, Allen, and Pierce are all projected between 9 and 10 fantasy points. Pierce has the most upside of the bunch, while Warren and Downs offer the highest floors.
Jonathan Taylor has one of the best roles of any running back in the NFL. In Week 1, he played on 89% of the snaps, had 19 carries (in a mostly negative game script), and ran a route on 59% of dropbacks. The Chiefs are tough against the run, but Taylor will be heavily involved regardless of the game script. I typically don’t prioritize running backs over quarterbacks in Showdown, but that’s exactly what I will be doing tonight with Taylor over Jones.
The Colts’ defense couldn’t stop the Ravens at home and now have to go on the road to face Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs tend to limit turnovers, and the Colts don’t have a great pass rush. Their defense is an easy fade on this slate. I’m also hesitant to roster Spencer Shrader, as I’m not sure how many field goals the Colts can afford to settle for in this game.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an RG MVP subscription!
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Patrick Mahomes pulled the old rope-a-dope on us in Week 1. The Chiefs said he wouldn’t scramble much this season after tearing his ACL last season, but he still had 7 rushing attempts for 23 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos. It seems like an unnecessary risk early in the season, but Mahomes seems comfortable running for now. The Colts present a strong matchup after giving up a huge game to Lamar Jackson. Mahomes also carved them up in their lone meeting last season. He’s a strong option in all formats and deserves consideration at CPT and MVP.
Chiefs’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 Xavier Worthy (KC): 82% route participation, 22% target share, 39% air yards share
🔹 Travis Kelce (KC, TE): 73% route participation, 19% target share, 28% air yards share
🔹 Rashee Rice (KC): 82% route participation, 7% target share, 7% air yards share
🔹 Noah Gray (KC, TE): 33% route participation, 4% target share, 5% air yards share
Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy were clearly the top receivers for the Chiefs in Week 1, as they both ran a route on 82% of dropbacks. Worthy had the much better usage, as he saw 22% of the team’s targets and 39% of the team’s air yards. It was a bit surprising to see Rice be so uninvolved, especially since he runs most of his routes from the slot and wasn’t covered by Patrick Surtain. He did score a touchdown, but the 7% target share was not ideal. I’m not worried about the usage yet, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Travis Kelce had promising usage in Week 1. He ran a route on 73% of dropbacks and was second on the team in air yards share at 28%. The Colts have historically been an excellent matchup for tight ends. The Chiefs like to use multiple tight ends, so there’s a path for Noah Gray to get there if he can find his way into the end zone. The only other wideout of note here is Tyquan Thornton, who is going to get one or two deep targets a game. He’s worth a look in large-field tournaments.
Kenneth Walker III looked fantastic in his Chiefs’ debut. He had 23 carries for 173 yards and a touchdown and added 3 receptions for 18 yards and a touchdown. He had 84 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE), which was easily the best of any running back in Week 1. After Derrick Henry ran all over the Colts, we should feel very good about Walker on this slate. He’s one of the best options at MVP and CPT. Emmett Johnson has carved out a role for himself and can be included in your large-field tournament player pool.
The Chiefs’ defense is firmly in play here. They are sizable favorites at home and expected to get pressure on Daniel Jones, who doesn’t look like his mobile self at the moment. Kicker Harrison Butker is also a very strong option. This is a slate where I like the idea of pairing the defense and kicker in the same lineup.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
There are plenty of slates where I don’t mind getting cute at CPT, but this isn’t one of them. I consider the big three the best options by far, and I’m not straying away from them in cash games and small-field tournaments. Even in large-field tournaments, I would rather target the strong plays at CPT and look to differentiate at UTIL. The best part is that all three players are projected for less than 20% ownership at CPT.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
It’s a similar story over on FanDuel. The only difference is I have Patrick Mahomes as my second favorite MVP over Jonathan Taylor. I typically don’t use kickers at the multiplier spot, but I will note that Harrison Butker has one of the strongest kicker projections that I’ve seen on a Showdown slate in a while.
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data