The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Jaguars vs. Ravens
For this Week 9 Thursday Night Football matchup on 11/5 featuring the Jaguars vs. Ravens, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Jaguars vs. Ravens
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
Happy Thursday and happy Week 9! After this week, we are officially halfway through the season. I hate how fast it goes by each year, but we still have a lot of football to watch over the next few months.
Tonight’s game could have been one of the best of the season if the Ravens had any healthy quarterbacks. Unfortunately, Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley are both out. With Joe Fagnano under center, this game went from having a close spread to the Jaguars being listed as 10-point favorites on the road.
The Jaguars are 5-2 and have a commanding lead in the AFC South, while the Ravens are in danger of falling to 4-5. They are already in last place in the AFC North, so their postseason chances look pretty grim with a loss tonight.
The game features a total of only 39.5 points, which is one of the lowest that we’ve seen this season.
Key Injuries (as of Thursday, 10:00 AM ET)
▪️ QB Lamar Jackson (BAL) — Out (right thumb)
▪️ QB Tyler Huntley (BAL) — Out (toe)
▪️ RB Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) — Questionable (ankle/foot)
▪️ RB Adam Randall (BAL) — Questionable (neck)
▪️ DE Travon Walker (JAX) — Questionable (rib)
▪️ S Jaylinn Hawkins (BAL) — Out (knee)
▪️ CB Nate Wiggins (BAL) — Questionable (stinger/illness)
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
Trevor Lawrence has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in fantasy football this season. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in 5 of 7 games and has played well even when the Jaguars build a large lead. He’s above the league average in both completion rate over expectation and average depth of target, so he’s been accurate while pushing the ball downfield. The matchup against the Ravens is as mediocre as you’ll find, with Baltimore 16th in EPA allowed per dropback and 18th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Jaguars’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Parker Washington: 79% route part., 23% target share, 36% air-yards share, 12.7 XFPPG
🔹 Jakobi Meyers: 75% route part., 15% target share, 22% air-yards share, 9.2 XFPPG
🔹 Brenton Strange (TE): 66% route part., 17% target share, 16% air-yards share, 9.7 XFPPG
🔹 Brian Thomas Jr.: 49% route part., 10% target share, 18% air-yards share, 7.7 XFPPG
🔹 Josh Cameron: 28% route part., 6% target share, 6% air-yards share, 3.2 XFPPG
Parker Washington has been the WR1 for the Jaguars this season. He leads the team in receptions, receiving yards, target share, and air yards share. He runs 42% of his routes from the slot, yet he still sees plenty of targets downfield. He has a nice mix of safety and upside. Jakobi Meyers hasn’t shown much upside since joining the Jaguars last season. He has only scored more than 13 fantasy points in 1 game all season. Brian Thomas Jr. has underwhelmed over the last two seasons and has a total of 5 receptions over the last 5 games combined. It has not been pretty.
Brenton Strange is second on the team in target share (17%) and has seen 16% of the team’s air yards. He’s essentially been Lawrence’s second favorite option behind Washington this season. Josh Cameron and Nate Boerkircher will mix in here and there, but they don’t project as strong values in what could be a run-heavy game script. As far as the matchup, the Ravens are 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 22nd to tight ends.
Bhayshul Tuten (questionable) was a core play for me on last week’s main slate, and he did not disappoint. While he doesn’t play 80% of the snaps like some feature backs, he continues to have a major role in an elite offense. He has scored 5 touchdowns in the last 2 games and has a clear path to 16-20 touches tonight. With the Jaguars being such large favorites, we shouldn’t be too quick to cross Chris Rodriguez Jr. off our list. He could easily see 10+ touches if this game goes as expected. If Tuten can’t suit up, Rodriguez and LeQuint Allen Jr. become the top value plays on the slate.
Joe Fagnano will be more prepared this week, but this is still a great slate to target the Jaguars’ defense in DFS. Kicker Cam Little is one of my favorite value plays on the slate.
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Baltimore Ravens Preview
The Ravens suffered not one but two quarterback injuries last week against the Bills. Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley have both been ruled out of this week’s game, which means Joe Fagnano will be under center. He struggled mightily last week, but in his defense, he was not expecting to see the field. He should be more prepared for tonight’s game, although it’s still a tough spot. The Jaguars are 5th in EPA allowed per dropback and 11th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I usually lock most quarterbacks into my Showdown lineups, but that won’t be the case with Fagnano tonight.
Ravens’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Zay Flowers: 81% route part., 28% target share, 33% air-yards share, 13.2 XFPPG
🔹 Rashod Bateman: 69% route part., 13% target share, 23% air-yards share, 6.1 XFPPG
🔹 Mark Andrews (TE): 66% route part., 18% target share, 16% air-yards share, 8.5 XFPPG
🔹 Ja’Kobi Lane: 57% route part., 12% target share, 17% air-yards share, 4.3 XFPPG
🔹 Josh Cuevas (TE): 19% route part., 6% target share, 4% air-yards share, 3.0 XFPPG
Zay Flowers was one of the highest-owned players on the main slate last week. Unfortunately for a lot of my lineups, he didn’t record a single catch. The whole offense was out of whack playing with their 3rd-string quarterback. I expect the Ravens to get more creative with their play-calling this week to manufacture touches for their best receiver. He’s viable, but there’s certainly risk with this entire offense. Rashod Bateman and Ja’Kobi Lane will round out three-receiver sets.
Mark Andrews has solid usage (18% target share and a 16% air yards share), but he has not had a great season. He’s had a bad case of the drops. While not ideal, backup quarterbacks often lean on their running backs and tight ends, so I could see Andrews getting 6-8 targets in this one. I expect a lot of 12-personnel tonight, which means we should see more of Josh Cuevas and Matt Hibner, who are both very cheap on DraftKings.
The path for the Ravens to win this game is through Derrick Henry. I expect him to see a ton of touches on their early drives. The problem is that the Jaguars will know what’s coming, and Henry has not been efficient with Lamar Jackson off the field this season. I am happy to build with Henry if you are making 5 or more lineups and would even consider using him at CPT and MVP. For single-entry tournaments, I much prefer Justice Hill. He’s likely going to see a lot of snaps in the second half if this game goes as planned. He saw 8 targets last week against the Bills.
The Ravens have a decent defense, but I worry about their offense putting them in bad positions. Additionally, the Jaguars have been excellent when it comes to taking care of the ball. I won’t be prioritizing Baltimore’s defense tonight. Kicking points could be more valuable in a low-scoring game, so Jake Moody is viable.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
As expected, the Jaguars are dominating the projected ownership at CPT, with Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington, and Bhayshul Tuten all projected for more than 10% ownership. My favorite contrarian play at the multiplier spot is Justice Hill. If Tuten is out, Chris Rodriguez Jr. would deserve consideration at CPT as well.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
The ownership at MVP is very concentrated, as Trevor Lawrence and Bhayshul Tuten account for nearly 50% of the projected ownership. Once again, there’s a path for Derrick Henry to be the optimal MVP, but the game script would have to go differently than the line suggests.
Prop Pick – Jaguars vs. Ravens
Season Record: 11-9
✅ Cam Little o1.5 field goals made
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 9, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data