The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Niners vs. Rams
For this Week 1 Thursday Night Football matchup on 9/10 featuring the Niners vs. Rams, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Niners vs. Rams
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Welcome back! I’m writing this Showdown preview before Wednesday night’s Patriots vs. Seahawks game, so I’m hoping by the time you are reading this, we all have a little extra padding in our bankrolls. I’m old enough to remember when these Thursday night games only featured bad teams, but that hasn’t been the case the last couple of seasons. That’s certainly not the case in Week 1, as two of the best teams in the NFC are squaring off in the first-ever NFL game in Australia.
Both teams finished 12-5 last season and are both Super Bowl contenders once again. The Rams really beefed up their roster in the offseason and are currently the odds-on favorite to win it all. They’ll need to stay healthy, but there aren’t any holes on the roster. The Niners could also make another deep playoff run if they can have a little more injury luck this season. This should be a fantastic game. It features a 3.5-point spread and a 48.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Wednesday, 1:00 PM ET)
▪️ Christian Kirk (SF) — Out (calf, IR — unavailable until at least Week 5)
▪️ Ricky Pearsall (SF) — Out (PCL, season-ending surgery)
▪️ George Kittle (SF) — Expected to Play (Achilles)
▪️ Aaron Donald (LAR) — Out (didn’t travel to Australia)
▪️ Myles Garrett (LAR) — Questionable (knee)
San Francisco 49ers Preview
The narrative surrounding Brock Purdy seems to change every season. He’s been underrated, overhyped as an MVP candidate, labeled as overrated, and now he’s just another quarterback. I’m higher on him than most heading into this season. He’s an efficient quarterback in Kyle Shanahan’s system with new weapons and a sneaky rushing floor. He’s facing one of the best defenses in the NFL in the opener, but his high floor makes him a viable option for both cash games and tournaments.
Niners’ 2025 wideout usage:
🔹 Mike Evans (TB): 66% route participation, 22% target share, 36% air yards share
🔹 Deebo Samuel (WAS): 79% route participation, 22% target share, 15% air yards share
🔹 Demarcus Robinson: 49% route participation, 8% target share, 15% air yards share
🔹 De’Zhaun Stribling: N/A
🔹 George Kittle: 74% route participation, 20% target share, 20% air yards share
The Niners can’t seem to escape the injury bug, and it’s already hit the wide receiver room hard. Ricky Pearsall and Christian Kirk are both out for the season, but Purdy still has plenty of weapons. The Niners brought in Mike Evans, brought back Deebo Samuel, and drafted De’Zhaun Stribling. Even though Evans is 33 years old, he’s still one of the best receivers in football when healthy. Samuel is somewhat of a wild card, while Stribling has made a lot of noise in both training camp and the preseason. Evans is likely the safest target in the opener, but I want to buy shares of Stribling early and often this season. I will note that the Rams secondary got a lot better after bringing in Trent McDuffie.
George Kittle is working his way back from an Achilles injury. While he’s expected to play on Thursday, the Niners are going to limit his snaps. He’ll likely be on the field when the Niners are in the red zone, but he’ll likely need to catch a touchdown or two to be a difference-maker on this slate. Jake Tonges filled in nicely for Kittle at times last season and could have a bigger role in this game, with Kittle expected to be limited. At $4,400 on DraftKings, he likely won’t garner much ownership.
Christian McCaffrey isn’t going to win the battle with Father Time forever, but he’s certainly holding his own right now. In 2025, he led the NFL with 413 touches and had another monster fantasy season. The Niners would be smart to limit his touches over the course of the season, but that’s unlikely to happen in an important divisional game in Week 1. CMC has the highest projection of any player on the slate. The RB2 role is still murky. Kaelon Black and Jordan James will only be relevant in fantasy if CMC is forced to miss time with an injury. Kyle Juszczyk is more interesting, as he sees work in the passing game and an occasional goal-line carry. From a matchup standpoint, Aaron Donald will not suit up for the Rams, while newly acquired Myles Garrett traveled with the team to Australia.
Robert Saleh is now the head coach of the Titans, so Raheem Morris is the new defensive coordinator. The Niners are already dealing with injuries on this side of the ball as well, and they draw a brutal matchup against the Rams. A fluke play could always lead to a defensive score, but I am not prioritizing San Francisco’s D/ST on this slate. Kicker Eddy Pineiro is a decent value play here, but I’m not sure how many field goals the Niners can afford to settle for if they want to win this game.
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Los Angeles Rams Preview
Matthew Stafford is coming off a career year, which is remarkable given how many accolades he has racked up over the years. In 2025, he won the MVP and led the league in both passing yards (4,707) and passing touchdowns (46). Given his supporting cast, offensive system, and offensive line, it’s hard to envision him slowing down anytime soon. He doesn’t offer rushing upside at this stage of his career, but he’s still one of the most stackable quarterbacks in fantasy thanks to his condensed target tree. The Niners have talent on the defensive side of the ball, but they are already dealing with key injuries. Stafford is not the type of player I want to fade on a Showdown slate.
Rams’ 2025 wideout usage:
🔹 Puka Nacua: 75% route participation, 29% target share, 30% air yards share
🔹 Davante Adams: 77% route participation, 24% target share, 36% air yards share
🔹 Colby Parkinson: 41% route participation, 10% target share, 6% air yards share
🔹 Terrance Ferguson: 34% route participation, 6% target share, 11% air yards share
🔹 Tyler Higbee: 49% route participation, 11% target share, 8% air yards share
The Rams have one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Nacua is coming off a monster season where he amassed over 1,800 yards from scrimmage while scoring 11 touchdowns. He saw a 29% target share and a 30% air yards share. There are a lot of question marks surrounding Adams. He struggled after coming back from injury in the second half of last season and was involved in some trade rumors this offseason. However, reports are that he’s been uncoverable at camp, so I’m not going to count him out just yet. His path to success at this stage of his career is through scoring touchdowns, which he is elite at.
Jordan Whittington and Konata Mumpfield round out the wide receiver room, but they won’t be on the field much. The Rams love to use their tight ends, and they have three good ones in Colby Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson, and Tyler Higbee. Trying to figure out which one will get the targets each week can be a headache, but it can also pay big dividends. Parkinson is likely the safest option, while Ferguson offers the most upside. He saw 11% of the team’s air yards in 2025 and will get an occasional deep ball thrown his way. The Niners allowed the 8th most fantasy points to tight ends last season.
Kyren Williams has been the bell-cow running back in this offense over the last few years, but there could be a changing of the guard in 2026. Williams is still trusted by the coaching staff, but he lacks big-play upside. Meanwhile, Blake Corum has been explosive and continues to look better and better. We still have Williams projected well ahead of Corum for this game, but we could be heading toward a 50/50 split. If the Rams can build a lead early, I could see both running backs having productive outings against the Niners, who are missing two of their starting defensive linemen.
The Rams made huge moves in the offseason. They traded for both Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie, and they talked Aaron Donald into coming out of retirement. Donald won’t play in this game, but the defense should be much better this season. I’m not forcing the D/ST into my DFS lineups, but I do prefer them over San Francisco’s D/ST. Kicker Harrison Mevis is a solid value option, especially for cash games.
CPT/MVP Picks
🏅 Christian McCaffrey – Bell-cow workload, highest projection on the slate
🥈 Puka Nacua – Elite target rate in an elite offense
🥉 Terrance Ferguson – Could be a real difference-maker if he catches a long touchdown
Lineup Construction & Ownership Angle
Unlike the Wednesday night game, I expect concentrated ownership at the CPT and MVP positions. Christian McCaffrey and Puka Nacua are extremely easy clicks at the multiplier spots because they both offer high floors and high ceilings. While they are my favorite options as well, it’s easy to build contrarian lineups if you look elsewhere. Between the two quarterbacks, I prefer Brock Purdy at MVP and CPT since he has more rushing upside. If Matthew Stafford has a big game through the air, one of his wideouts will likely outscore him in DFS.
Two players have uncertainty surrounding their health and roles, and I want to be overweight on both of them. Thanks to injuries, De’Zhaun Stribling could have a major role for the Niners right out of the gate. Nobody seems to want Davante Adams in season-long leagues, and I think that could translate to low ownership in DFS. He’s more than capable of scoring 2 touchdowns and breaking the slate. I also like chasing the upside of Terrance Ferguson at a cheap price point.
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data, ProFootballFocus, and Stat Rankings