The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Seahawks vs. Broncos
For this Week 6 Thursday Night Football matchup on 10/15 featuring the Seahawks vs. Broncos, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Seahawks vs. Broncos
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
Week 6 is already upon us.
We kick off the week with a Showdown slate between the Seahawks and Broncos. This was nearly last season’s Super Bowl, as the Broncos came close to knocking off the Patriots in the AFC Championship. The Seahawks haven’t had much of a Super Bowl hangover. They are 3-2 to start the season with a point differential of +29. The Broncos have the same record as the Seahawks, but it doesn’t feel like the Broncos have been great this season. They have a point differential of -14.
Tonight’s game features a 3-point spread and a total of 41.5 points.
Key Injuries (as of Thursday, 11:30 AM ET)
▪️ RB Zach Charbonnet (SEA) — Out (knee)
▪️ LB Drake Thomas (SEA) — Out (ankle)
▪️ LB Chazz Surratt (SEA) — Out (calf)
▪️ CB Patrick Surtain II (DEN) — Out (ankle)
▪️ S Talanoa Hufanga (DEN) — Out (ankle)
▪️ CB Riley Moss (DEN) — Questionable (ribs)
Seattle Seahawks Preview
Sam Darnold had 33 fantasy points against the Commanders in Week 3, but he’s been held to 10 and 14 fantasy points in the last 2 games. His fantasy production typically hinges on the score of the game. He’s a very capable quarterback, but the Seahawks love to lean on their running game and their defense whenever possible. With no rushing upside, he rarely ends up as the optimal CPT/MVP. If he has a nice game, one of his pass catchers typically outscores him. A matchup against the Broncos is improved thanks to some injuries at cornerback, but I prefer using Darnold in a flex spot tonight.
Seahawks’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 85% route part., 33% target share, 53% air-yards share, 22.7 XFPPG
🔹 AJ Barner (TE): 70% route part., 14% target share, 5% air-yards share, 8.0 XFPPG
🔹 Rashid Shaheed: 61% route part., 12% target share, 17% air-yards share, 6.0 XFPPG
🔹 Cooper Kupp: 67% route part., 10% target share, 14% air-yards share, 6.7 XFPPG
🔹 Tory Horton: 17% route part., 3% target share, 6% air-yards share, 2.9 XFPPG
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver in football right now. His actual production, expected production, and underlying usage are all elite. Through the first 5 games, he has a 33% target share and 53% air-yards share. He has scored at least 25 DK points in 4 of those 5 games. I typically don’t worry about cornerback matchups when it comes to JSN, but it doesn’t hurt that Patrick Surtain is out for the Broncos.
Rashid Shaheed has seen only 2 deep targets this season, which has long been the reason why he’s been relevant in DFS. The fact that Cooper Kupp has similar usage and a higher expected fantasy points per game (XFPPG) tells us everything we need to know about Shaheed’s role right now. Perhaps he can catch a deep pass with Surtain and potentially Riley Moss out for the Broncos. Kupp could always find the optimal by scoring a touchdown, but he’s not a priority in my eyes.
The Broncos are 21st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season, so the matchup looks good for AJ Barner. He hasn’t seen many targets downfield this season, but he’s run a route on 70% of dropbacks and has seen a 14% target share.
Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price are both out, which means another start for Emanuel Wilson. He’s been terrific over the last 2 games, playing on 60% of the snaps and turning 46 touches into 192 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. He’s already seen double-digit carries inside the 5-yard-line this season, which is impressive since he’s only had 2 games as the feature back. The Broncos have been middling against the run this season.
While I won’t be prioritizing the Seahawks’ D/ST, their defense is capable of generating pressure, and the Broncos haven’t looked great offensively this season. With the game having such a low total, kicking points could be more valuable. Jason Myers is viable in all formats.
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Denver Broncos Preview
Bo Nix has taken a lot of heat for his play through the first 5 games of the season, but he deserves somewhat of a free pass after fracturing his ankle in January. He’s a tough decision point tonight. On the one hand, quarterback production is almost always needed on these slates. On the other hand, he’s been held to 15 or fewer fantasy points in 4 of 5 games this season and draws a brutal matchup against the Seahawks, who are 2nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 4th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Broncos’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Jaylen Waddle: 76% route part., 18% target share, 34% air-yards share, 9.7 XFPPG
🔹 Courtland Sutton: 77% route part., 14% target share, 31% air-yards share, 6.5 XFPPG
🔹 Evan Engram (TE): 58% route part., 9% target share, 13% air-yards share, 6.2 XFPPG
🔹 Troy Franklin: 32% route part., 4% target share, 10% air-yards share, 2.7 XFPPG
🔹 Nate Adkins (TE): 14% route part., 3% target share, 3% air-yards share, 2.4 XFPPG
The usage for Jaylen Waddle has been encouraging in his first 5 games in a Broncos uniform, but the fantasy production has been scarce. He had a nice outing against the Jaguars (24 fantasy points), but he’s been held to 6 or fewer fantasy points in 3 of the other 4 games. Courtland Sutton has seen his role diminish with Waddle in the picture, as he’s only seen 14% of the team’s targets. While Waddle and Sutton have combined for 65% of the team’s air yards, the Seahawks aren’t a team that gets beat deep often.
With Pat Bryant on injured reserve, Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr. have been splitting time at WR3. This particular matchup sets up better for Franklin, who has run nearly half of his routes from the slot. Evan Engram has only run a route on 58% of dropbacks this season, but he’s a decent target earner when on the field. The Seahawks have been tougher on wide receivers than they have been on tight ends in the first 5 games.
The Broncos are such a tough team to predict because they spread the ball around in the passing game and have a timeshare at running back. J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey have played on 42% and 41% of the snaps, respectively. Dobbins has gotten more work in the running game (and has dominated carries inside the 5-yard line), while Harvey has gotten more work in the passing game. It makes sense to use Dobbins in lineups where you are telling the story of the Broncos playing with a lead and Harvey in lineups where you are telling the story of the Broncos trailing.
The Broncos have an excellent defense, and Darnold is known for the occasional mistake, but I’m not prioritizing them tonight. They are without Patrick Surtain and could be missing another top cornerback. Kicker Wil Lutz is viable in all formats.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is expected to be the chalk at CPT, followed by Bo Nix and Emanuel Wilson. I’m in line with the field for the most part. If you are building multiple tournament lineups, I don’t mind taking a chance on Rashid Shaheed or Cooper Kupp at CPT at their cheap price points.
🥈 Bo Nix
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the highest projected ownership at MVP, while Bo Nix, Emanuel Wilson, and Sam Darnold are all between 10% and 15%. If you are looking to get different in large-field tournaments, AJ Barner is only $7,200 at MVP.
🥈 Bo Nix
Prop Pick – Seahawks vs. Broncos
Season Record: 5-5
✅ Jason Myers o1.5 field goals made
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 6, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data