The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Giants vs. Patriots
For this Week 13 Monday Night Football matchup on 12/1 featuring the Giants vs. Patriots, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Giants vs. Patriots
We are back at it tonight with the Giants and Patriots. These two teams have polar opposite records. The Giants are 2-10 after 6 straight losses, while the Patriots are 10-2 after 9 straight wins. On paper, this should be a blowout, especially since the game is in New England. However, the game features a 7.5-point spread and a 46.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Monday)
None
New York Giants Preview
Jaxson Dart will be back in the lineup this week. While I like watching Dart play, I love watching Jameis Winston play. Maybe we can still get a good interview or two out of him after the game. Dart has scored at least 19 fantasy points in all 7 of his games this season. He offers a solid rushing floor, although quarterbacks tend to run the ball less in their first game back from a concussion. I’m still firing up Dart as one of the top plays on the slate. The Patriots are tough against the pass, but they are 15th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
New York’s wideout usage (2025):
- Wan’Dale Robinson: 89% route participation, 25% target share, 27% air-yards share
- Darius Slayton: 73% route participation, 12% target share, 20% air-yards share
- Isaiah Hodgins: 76% route participation, 15% target share, 20% air-yards share
- Theo Johnson: 74% route participation, 15% target share, 14% air-yards share
The Giants receivers have been tough to predict this season, but they have certainly flashed some upside. Wan’Dale Robinson is coming off one of his biggest outings of the season and leads the team in routes, target share, and air yards share. Darius Slayton doesn’t see many targets, but he does boast a 20% target share. The problem with Slayton is that he’ll likely draw coverage from Christian Gonzalez, who is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL.
Since joining the Giants, Isaiah Hodgins has seen a 15% target share and a 20% air yards share. Many thought his playing time would dip when Slayton returned to the lineup, but that wasn’t the case. For tonight’s slate, I prefer Hodgins over Slayton. Theo Johnson has a better matchup than the receivers, as the Patriots are 24th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Johnson is affordable and has run a route on 75% of dropbacks this season.
The Giants haven’t had a ton of success on the ground since Cam Skattebo got injured, but Tyrone Tracy is the clear RB1 in this backfield. Over the last 2 games, he has seen 46 touches that he has turned into 269 yards from scrimmage. The Patriots have allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, but their advanced rushing metrics aren’t nearly as good — they are 21st in PFF’s grades against the run.
The Giants are large underdogs on the road. For cash games and small-field tournaments, I’m fine fully fading their defense and kicker.
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New England Patriots Preview
The Patriots are on a roll right now, and after the Rams’ loss yesterday, Drake Maye has a good chance to state his case for this year’s MVP in a primetime game against the Giants. This is an elite matchup, as New York is 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback and 26th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Maye offers a high floor/ceiling combo and is firmly in play at MVP/CPT.
New England’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Stefon Diggs: 65% route participation, 21% target share, 22% air-yards share
- Mack Hollins: 56% route participation, 12% target share, 18% air-yards share
- Kayshon Boutte: 67% route participation, 11% target share, 23% air-yards share
- Hunter Henry: 72% route participation, 17% target share, 16% air-yards share
Stefon Diggs leads the Patriots in target share (21%) and air yards share (22%) this season, but this offense has a lot of mouths to feed. Diggs has really only had two ceiling performances this season, but the Giants have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte will round out 3-receiver sets and have both seen between 11% and 12% of the team’s targets. Boutte is more of a deep threat, which is certainly enticing in this matchup.
Hunter Henry is coming off a huge fantasy outing against the Bengals, where he topped 100 yards and scored a touchdown. Prior to last week, Henry had been held under 10 fantasy points in each of the last 7 games. He’s a boom-or-bust option against the Giants, who are 10th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Austin Hooper is back from injury and ran a route on 39% of dropbacks last week. He’s an interesting large-field tournament target.
TreVeyon Henderson looked great with Rhamondre Stevenson out of the lineup, so everyone was interested to see how the split would look with Stevenson back from injury last week. Henderson played on 64% of the snaps and turned 21 touches into 81 yards from scrimmage. Stevenson played on 31% of the snaps and could only muster up 11 yards on 7 touches. Given the split last week and Stevenson’s lack of efficiency, I’m expecting Henderson to be the lead back against the Giants, who are 31st or worse in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Patriots defense is firmly in play here. They are healthy and playing well. They are also large favorites at home and facing a rookie quarterback. Kicker Andres Borregales is firmly in play as well.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is shaping up to be a fun slate. Both quarterbacks are close to must-plays in my eyes because they both offer rushing upside and have been two of the most productive quarterbacks in fantasy football. For the Giants, I’m likely going to fade their running game, defense, and kicker. I’ll take my chances with the wideouts (sans Darius Slayton). For the Patriots, everyone is viable against this bad Giants defense. It’s a good slate to build multiple lineups, as the offensive production can come from a bunch of different players.
Giants vs. Patriots DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | 20.89 | $11,800 | 1.77 | $13,200 | 1.58 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | QB | 17.73 | $10,000 | 1.77 | $12,400 | 1.43 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | RB | 16.18 | $8,000 | 2.02 | $11,800 | 1.37 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | 14.81 | $9,000 | 1.65 | $10,600 | 1.40 |
| Tyrone Tracy | NYG | RB | 12.56 | $7,600 | 1.65 | $9,400 | 1.34 |
| Stefon Diggs | NE | WR | 12.56 | $8,800 | 1.43 | $11,400 | 1.10 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 10.29 | $7,400 | 1.39 | $7,600 | 1.35 |
| Theo Johnson | NYG | TE | 8.98 | $5,800 | 1.55 | $5,800 | 1.55 |
| Mack Hollins | NE | WR | 8.60 | $6,200 | 1.39 | $8,600 | 1.00 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 8.41 | $5,000 | 1.68 | $7,200 | 1.17 |
| Andy Borregales | NE | K | 8.24 | $4,800 | 1.72 | $6,600 | 1.25 |
| Patriots | NE | DST | 7.50 | $5,400 | 1.39 | $6,800 | 1.10 |
| Kayshon Boutte | NE | WR | 7.49 | $6,800 | 1.10 | $6,400 | 1.17 |
| Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | 7.20 | $6,400 | 1.13 | $5,200 | 1.38 |
| Devin Singletary | NYG | RB | 7.20 | $4,600 | 1.57 | $8,200 | 0.88 |
| Younghoe Koo | NYG | K | 6.58 | $4,400 | 1.50 | $6,200 | 1.06 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | NYG | WR | 6.00 | $3,600 | 1.67 | $4,000 | 1.50 |
| Giants | NYG | DST | 4.60 | $3,200 | 1.44 | $6,000 | 0.77 |
| Demario Douglas | NE | WR | 3.92 | $4,000 | 0.98 | $4,600 | 0.85 |
| Austin Hooper | NE | TE | 3.54 | $3,400 | 1.04 | $2,800 | 1.26 |
| Daniel Bellinger | NYG | TE | 3.48 | $1,600 | 2.18 | $1,800 | 1.93 |
| Kyle Williams | NE | WR | 1.30 | $2,000 | 0.65 | $3,400 | 0.38 |
Giants vs. Patriots Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 17-20
TreVeyon Henderson more than 81.5 rushing + receiving yards (1.79x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Even if the backfield split doesn’t go the same way that it did last week, I still think there’s a clear path for TreVeyon Henderson to get more than 81.5 yards from scrimmage. He dominated snaps and touches last week and has averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per reception this season. The Patriots are large favorites at home, and the Giants have given up the 2nd-most rushing yards to running backs this season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus