The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Vikings vs. Bears
For this Week 1 Monday Night Football matchup on 9/8 featuring the Vikings vs. Bears, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Vikings vs. Bears
I hope everyone had a great Sunday in Week 1. I didn’t have the best main slate lineups, but I ran like the sun in the final few minutes of the Ravens-Bills game. I had a nice little Showdown bink to start the season thanks to Josh Allen and Keon Coleman.
The final game of the week should be a fun one, as the Vikings and Bears square off at Soldier Field in Chicago. These are two playoff-hopeful teams in the NFC, and both are darkhorses to win the NFC North. These are two of the best-coached teams in the league, as Kevin O’Connell will serve as Minnesota’s head coach for the 4th year, while Ben Johnson (former Lions’ offensive coordinator) will make his debut as the head coach for the Bears. This game features a 1.5-point spread and a 43.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Jordan Addison – Out
Roschon Johnson – Questionable
Minnesota Vikings Preview
The Vikings are 34-17 with O’Connell as their head coach over the last 3 seasons. They have all the weapons in the world on offense, but we’ll see how well J.J. McCarthy can fare in his first season as the starting quarterback. The Vikings enter the season with a win total of 8.5 games (heavily juiced to the over).
The Vikings let Sam Darnold walk in free agency this summer, largely because they know what they have waiting in the wings. They used the 10th overall pick in last year’s draft on McCarthy, who is hopefully their franchise quarterback. They beefed up their offensive line and come into the season with one of the highest-graded offensive lines in football, which should certainly help a young quarterback. Given how well O’Connell plans for opponents, we can fire up McCarthy as an elite play in all formats on this Showdown slate. With that said, I’m unlikely to have much exposure to him at the multiplier positions (MVP/CPT).
Jordan Addison has been suspended for the first 3 games of the season, which makes the Vikings’ wideouts extremely appealing on this Showdown slate. Addison had a 19% target share last year and has scored 19 touchdowns in his first 33 games, so his absence opens up plenty of potential production. Justin Jefferson is one of the best receivers in the league and has topped a 25% target share each of the last 3 seasons. I will note that the Bears allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers last season.
With Addison out, Jalen Nailor should be outside in most 3-receiver sets with Adam Thielen manning the slot. Nailor is priced as if Addison was going to be active, making him one of the more appealing value plays on the Vikings. It sounds like Thielen won’t be an every-snap player in Week 1, but he’ll certainly be on the field and running high-success routes underneath. Against a good defense, he could be the safety blanket for McCarthy. T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver have an easier matchup than the receivers, at least on paper. In 2024, the Bears allowed the 13th most fantasy points to tight ends. Hockenson is now 2 full seasons away from when he tore his ACL and MCL.
We could see a changing of the tide at running back this year. Aaron Jones wasn’t very efficient in 2024 and turns 31 in December. In the offseason, the Vikings traded a 5th-round pick to the Niners for Jordan Mason, who has made the most of his starts in San Francisco. We’ll see what the split looks like against the Bears, but we have them projected closer than you might expect. If you have an inkling about how you think the carries will be split, this is a great opportunity to run with it in DFS. Ownership will be low on both players, despite the Bears having one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last season.
While I expect the Bears to take a major leap forward on offense this season, Caleb Williams does struggle with turnovers. I wouldn’t look to the Vikings defense in cash games or small-field tournaments, but they are certainly viable in large-field GPPs. Kicker Will Reichard is my favorite kicker in all of the primetime games that we’ve had so far this season.
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Chicago Bears Preview
I’m not a Bears fan by any means, but I’m excited to see this offense with Johnson as their head coach. We know Caleb Williams has all of the talent in the world, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can show some improvements in year two. The Bears come into the season with a win total of 8.5 games (juiced to the under). I’m not a betting man… wait, yes, I am. I’m taking the over on the Bears’ win total.
Williams is set up for success this season. He has a ton of weapons in the passing game, the offensive line should be much better, and he has Ben Johnson as his head coach. Johnson absolutely torched the Vikings defense during his time with the Lions, so he should feel good about his offense heading into tonight’s game. I’m on the Williams hype train this season and will be targeting him early and often in DFS. He’s a lock-and-load play this evening and deserves consideration at the MVP and CPT spots.
The Vikings could not cover wide receivers last season. Despite being 2nd in EPA per dropback, they allowed the most fantasy points of any team to wide receivers. We expect the Bears to have a better offense as a whole this season, which means this is a potential breakout spot for DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. Moore surprisingly had a much lower aDOT (7.6) than Odunze (14.2) last season, but that could change with the new offense. They both have double-digit target upside in an elite matchup tonight at home.
Luther Burden was a 2nd-round draft pick, but he’s been dealing with an injury in camp and in the preseason. We are projecting Olamide Zaccheaus to be in 3-receiver sets this evening. At his cheap price points, he’s one of the most appealing punts of the slate. The Bears used a 1st-round draft pick on Colston Loveland, who lined up all over the field in the preseason. He was drafted ahead of Tyler Warren, who looked great in his NFL debut yesterday. The Vikings were tougher on tight ends than they were on wide receivers last season, but Loveland is still viable in tournaments. Cole Kmet will still be heavily involved, so it’s hard to feel great about either of them heading into tonight’s game.
D’Andre Swift was the RB1 in Chicago last season and will have that role again to start this season. One key injury to keep an eye on is Roschon Johnson, who is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game. There was a lot of talk in the offseason that Johnson would be the goal-line back for the Bears, so his absence would certainly help the touchdown equity for Swift. Regardless, Swift should be heavily involved in the passing game. He had a 14% target share last season. If Johnson is out, Kyle Monangai will serve as the RB2 and could soak up those short-yardage opportunities. I will note that the Bears were top 5 in EPA against the run and PFF’s grades against the run last season.
The Bears defense is the first defense that I am considering in all formats through these first four Showdown slates. They are facing a young quarterback who is playing on the road in a difficult environment. If the Bears can build a lead, their defense can attack McCarthy and potentially create some turnovers. Kicker Cairo Santos should naturally have more field goal opportunities if this offense improves as a whole.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
For the first time this season, I don’t think it’s necessary to lock in both starting quarterbacks. I want as much exposure to Caleb Williams as I can get (especially since the Vikings were tough against the run and awful against the pass last year). However, I could see a path where the optimal lineups don’t include J.J. McCarthy. If one of his pass catchers is responsible for a good chunk of his yards, and the scores mostly come on the ground, he might not be needed to win tournaments. I’m not saying to fade him completely, but he’s the first quarterback that I feel fine with fading so far this season.
I love the idea of including one of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason in lineups. The Bears really struggle against the run, and the Vikings will want to establish the run early. I have a hard time seeing them both get there, but the uncertainty surrounding the touch share of these two should lead to low ownership on both. Both kickers are viable this evening, as is the Bears’ defense. This feels like a much different slate than the shootout that we had in Buffalo last night.
Vikings vs. Bears DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | QB | 20.44 | $9,000 | 2.27 | $12,000 | 1.70 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 19.50 | $10,800 | 1.81 | $14,800 | 1.32 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 17.62 | $9,200 | 1.92 | $12,600 | 1.40 |
| DJ Moore | CHI | WR | 14.90 | $9,600 | 1.55 | $10,200 | 1.46 |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | RB | 12.73 | $7,400 | 1.72 | $10,400 | 1.22 |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | 11.67 | $8,000 | 1.46 | $8,000 | 1.46 |
| D’Andre Swift | CHI | RB | 11.34 | $8,800 | 1.29 | $9,400 | 1.21 |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 10.85 | $6,600 | 1.64 | $8,400 | 1.29 |
| Jordan Mason | MIN | RB | 9.77 | $7,000 | 1.40 | $5,800 | 1.68 |
| Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 9.27 | $4,400 | 2.11 | $7,800 | 1.19 |
| Will Reichard | MIN | K | 7.45 | $5,000 | 1.49 | $7,000 | 1.06 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 7.22 | $5,400 | 1.34 | $7,200 | 1.00 |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | 7.14 | $5,800 | 1.23 | $5,400 | 1.32 |
| Cairo Santos | CHI | K | 7.08 | $4,800 | 1.48 | $6,400 | 1.11 |
| Bears | CHI | DST | 6.45 | $3,400 | 1.90 | $6,800 | 0.95 |
| Jalen Nailor | MIN | WR | 5.79 | $3,600 | 1.61 | $4,000 | 1.45 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | CHI | WR | 4.53 | $2,000 | 2.27 | $3,200 | 1.42 |
| Luther Burden | CHI | WR | 4.39 | $4,600 | 0.95 | $3,600 | 1.22 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 4.30 | $4,000 | 1.08 | $4,800 | 0.90 |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | RB | 3.96 | $3,000 | 1.32 | $4,400 | 0.90 |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | RB | 3.77 | $2,800 | 1.35 | $1,400 | 2.69 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 3.49 | $1,600 | 2.18 | $2,000 | 1.75 |
Vikings vs. Bears Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 2-1
Cairo Santos more than 1.5 field goals made (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Justice Hill didn’t quite get there last night, so we are 2-1 in pick’em to start the season. For Monday night, I’m going with Cairo Santos more than 1.5 field goals made. If you have been reading these Grind Down articles over the years, you know I love using kickers in pick’em. When looking for a kicker to make more than 1.5 field goals, I want them to be on the team that I think is going to win, I want the weather to be good, and I want them to be on an offense that should move the ball. I think the Bears will move the ball with ease tonight, but they could struggle to score touchdowns in the red zone.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus