The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Rams vs. Jaguars
For this Week 7 Sunday Morning Football matchup on 10/19 featuring the Rams vs. Jaguars, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Rams vs. Jaguars
We have another game in London this week, which means another early morning DFS sweat. The Rams are coming off a win against the Ravens, but it didn’t come without a cost. Puka Nacua suffered an ankle injury and is listed as day-to-day. My beloved Jaguars are coming off a loss to the Seahawks, but they are still 4-2 in the standings. Both of these teams have playoff aspirations, so this should be a great football game. It features a 2.5-point spread and a 44.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Puka Nacua – Questionable
Blake Corum – Questionable
Colby Parkinson – Questionable
Brenton Strange – Out
Dyami Brown – Questionable
Los Angeles Rams Preview
Matthew Stafford is one of my favorite players to watch. Between his competitiveness, his love of football, and his no-look throws, he’s a must-watch for football fans. He’s turned into a pure pocket passer late in his career, which has led to more inconsistency in DFS. In 6 games this season, he’s been held under 20 fantasy points 4 times. He scored 29 and 30 fantasy points in the other 2 games. We should get clarification on Puka Nacua soon, but let’s go with the assumption that he’s going to miss this game. Nacua’s absence would certainly hurt Stafford’s prospects, but he’s still viable against the Jaguars, who have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Los Angeles’ 2025 wideout usage:
- Davante Adams: 86% route participation, 28% target share, 36% air yards share
- Jordan Whittington: 46% route participation, 6% target share, 4% air yards share
- Tutu Atwell: 53% route participation, 5% target share, 11% air yards share
- Tyler Higbee: 56% route participation, 9% target share, 6% air yards share
With Nacua unlikely to suit up, Davante Adams should get the WR1 treatment for the first time as a member of the Rams. He hasn’t had the best quarterbacks throwing him the ball over the last few years, so he won’t let this opportunity go to waste. We’ve seen fellow WR1s (Ja’Marr Chase, Nico Collins, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba) torch the Jaguars this season, who have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Adams already boasts a 28% target share and a 38% air yards share, so his ceiling will be massive if Nacua is ruled out.
Jordan Whittington is expected to step into the Nacua role. He’s been quiet this season, but we certainly know the talent is there. He’s underpriced given his expected role in an exploitable matchup. Tutu Atwell is expected back from injury this week and will also see an uptick in snaps and targets. Tyler Higbee currently has a 9% target share this season, but that number is expected to increase with Nacua likely out and Colby Parkinson potentially unavailable. The Jaguars are 12th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Kyren Williams can’t do anything wrong in the eyes of Sean McVay. He has always loved having a clear RB1 in his offense, and despite losing fumbles in back-to-back games, the role for Williams hasn’t changed. With Blake Corum listed as day-to-day and likely to miss this game, Williams could see north of 80% of the snaps this week. He could see a higher target share with Nacua likely out, and the Jaguars have been middling against the run this season. If Nacua is out, I love builds with the big three from the Rams — Stafford, Adams, and Williams.
The Jaguars offense can stall out at times, and the Rams are 6th in pressure rate and PFF’s pass rush grades. The Rams defense is worth a look in tournaments. Kicker Joshua Karty is in a good spot, but I’ll prefer the cheap wideouts on the Rams if Nacua is ruled out.
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Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
Trevor Lawrence has all of the weapons a starting quarterback could ever ask for. The offensive line has been one of the best in the NFL in pass blocking, the running game has exceeded expectations, and the team has some of the best young wide receivers in football. He’s had a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde vibe this season. He’s topped 19 fantasy points in 3 games and has been held under 12 fantasy points in the other 3 games. This is not a good matchup, as the Rams are 6th or better in pressure rate, EPA allowed per dropback, and PFF’s grades against the pass.
Jacksonville’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Brian Thomas: 84% route participation, 22% target share, 35% air yards share
- Travis Hunter: 70% route participation, 15% target share, 17% air yards share
- Dyami Brown: 59% route participation, 13% target share, 22% air yards share
- Hunter Long (Week 6): 58% route participation, 7% target share, 5% air yards share
After targeting him the first few weeks of the season, it was frustrating to watch Brian Thomas have his best game of the season last week. He caught 8 of his 10 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. More importantly, my timeline is no longer filled with highlights of BTJ ducking away from contact or making a poor play. The problem here is two-fold — the Rams are tough on wide receivers, and it’s hard to prioritize him over the other expensive options on this slate. He’s viable, but I prefer him in tournaments.
Travis Hunter is finally starting to see more targets and more air yards. With that said, he has yet to score 10+ fantasy points in any game so far this season. I want to believe in a breakout, but I’d rather wait for it to happen rather than chase it in DFS. Dyami Brown has quietly seen at least 4 targets in 4 of his 5 games this season. He’s a decent tournament flier. With Brenton Strange out last week, Hunter Long played on 58% of the snaps and saw a 7% target share.
Travis Etienne has only seen 12 carries in each of the last 2 games. He’s still the RB1 in this offense, but he has more competition for touches than Kyren Williams. To make matters worse, the Rams present a very difficult matchup. On the season, they are 2nd in PFF’s grades against the run and 3rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Similar to BTJ, I prefer using Etienne in large-field tournaments. Bhayshul Tuten likely needs a touchdown to find his way into the optimal lineup.
The Jaguars have one of the lowest pressure rates in the NFL and are facing a quarterback who rarely turns the ball over. I won’t be targeting Jacksonville’s defense in any of my lineups. Kicker Cam Little has missed 3 field goals in the last 4 games. He’s not a major priority on this slate.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The Rams already have one of the most concentrated offenses in the NFL. They essentially have two receivers they throw the ball to and one primary running back. With Puka Nacua and Blake Corum listed day-to-day, there’s a good chance they both end up getting ruled out. We can expect a TON of touches and targets for both Davante Adams and Kyren Williams. I am prioritizing the big three on the Rams over the expensive options on the Jaguars. Additionally, I like the value plays from the Rams more than the ones from the Jaguars. I’m looking to build LA onslaughts on this slate.
Rams vs. Jaguars DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | LAR | WR | 18.85 | $11,200 | 1.68 | $11,600 | 1.63 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 17.78 | $10,600 | 1.68 | $12,400 | 1.43 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 17.63 | $9,200 | 1.92 | $10,600 | 1.66 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 17.21 | $10,000 | 1.72 | $12,000 | 1.43 |
| Travis Etienne | JAX | RB | 15.39 | $7,800 | 1.97 | $9,400 | 1.64 |
| Brian Thomas | JAX | WR | 14.21 | $10,400 | 1.37 | $10,800 | 1.32 |
| Jordan Whittington | LAR | WR | 10.48 | $4,600 | 2.28 | $7,200 | 1.46 |
| Travis Hunter | JAX | WR | 9.66 | $5,400 | 1.79 | $8,200 | 1.18 |
| Joshua Karty | LAR | K | 9.09 | $5,000 | 1.82 | $6,800 | 1.34 |
| Cam Little | JAX | K | 8.14 | $5,200 | 1.57 | $6,200 | 1.31 |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR | TE | 7.19 | $3,200 | 2.25 | $5,800 | 1.24 |
| Rams | LAR | DST | 6.85 | $4,400 | 1.56 | $7,000 | 0.98 |
| Dyami Brown | JAX | WR | 6.80 | $3,800 | 1.79 | $5,200 | 1.31 |
| Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | 6.10 | $4,000 | 1.53 | $4,000 | 1.53 |
| Jaguars | JAX | DST | 5.97 | $3,400 | 1.76 | $6,400 | 0.93 |
| Parker Washington | JAX | WR | 5.25 | $2,800 | 1.88 | $4,800 | 1.09 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | RB | 4.70 | $4,800 | 0.98 | $4,400 | 1.07 |
| Hunter Long | JAX | TE | 4.05 | $3,000 | 1.35 | $3,400 | 1.19 |
| Konata Mumpfield | LAR | WR | 2.97 | $200 | 14.85 | $1,000 | 2.97 |
| Blake Corum | LAR | RB | 2.55 | $3,600 | 0.71 | $4,200 | 0.61 |
| Johnny Mundt | JAX | TE | 2.38 | $1,200 | 1.98 | $1,400 | 1.70 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | JAX | RB | 2.36 | $1,400 | 1.69 | $2,000 | 1.18 |
| Xavier Smith | LAR | WR | 2.36 | $1,000 | 2.36 | $1,000 | 2.36 |
| Davis Allen | LAR | TE | 1.93 | $1,600 | 1.21 | $1,800 | 1.07 |
Rams vs. Jaguars Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 7-11
Davante Adams more than 0.5 touchdowns (1.82x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Without knowing the availability of Puka Nacua, we don’t have the receiving yard totals up for the Rams yet. However, we can get Davante Adams to score a touchdown at a good price. This number will get significantly worse if and when Nacua is ruled out. Adams already has 11 red-zone targets this season, which is the 2nd most in the NFL. And that’s while playing alongside Nacua. He should get peppered with targets if Nacua is eventually ruled out. The Jaguars have really struggled to defend WR1s this season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus