The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Buccaneers vs. Rams
For this Week 12 Sunday Night Football matchup on 11/23 featuring the Buccaneers vs. Rams, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Buccaneers vs. Rams
We are back for another Sunday Night Football edition of the NFL Grind Down. We have a good one on tap this week. The Buccaneers have lost 2 games in a row, but they currently sit atop the NFC South with a record of 6-4 on the season. They have a clear path to the division title, as the Panthers are likely the only team that can catch them in the standings. The Rams have won 5 games in a row and sit atop the stacked NFC West. Tonight’s game features a 7-point spread and a 49.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
Bucky Irving – Out
Mike Evans – Out
Chris Godwin – Questionable/Probable
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
Baker Mayfield has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in fantasy football this season, and he’s done it without some of his best wideouts. Mike Evans is obviously still out, but Chris Godwin is tentatively expected to return to the lineup. Mayfield has shown some rushing upside this season and has topped 18 fantasy points in 8 of 10 games. The issue this week is a matchup against the Rams, who are 2nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 11th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. He’s firmly in play in all formats, but I prefer him at UTIL over the multiplier spots.
Tampa Bay’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Emeka Egbuka: 84% route participation, 25% target share, 38% air yards share
- Tez Johnson: 56% route participation, 10% target share, 17% air yards share
- Sterling Shepard: 69% route participation, 13% target share, 14% air yards share
- Cade Otton: 77% route participation, 15% target share, 10% air yards share
If Godwin is indeed back this week, he’ll cut into the routes of Tez Johnson and Sterling Shepard, who have essentially been splitting the slot role for the Buccaneers. Godwin is the most expensive of the trio, which is a concern in his first game back since Week 4. Emeka Egbuka’s role shouldn’t change much with Godwin back. He has seen a 25% target share and a 38% air yards share this season and has topped 23 fantasy points in 3 of his last 7 games. Cade Otton is priced up enough that he’s unlikely to garner much ownership. His upside is limited, but he could run into 5 to 7 targets here. While the Rams have an elite pass defense, they are 19th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 22nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Bucky Irving is nearing a return, but he has already been ruled out for this game. Rachaad White and Sean Tucker will continue to split the work in this backfield. White has been the lead back in most of the games that Irving has missed, but we saw close to a 50/50 split last week. Tucker has been more efficient and is coming off a huge game against the Bills, where he racked up 140 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. This is a much worse matchup on paper, as the Rams are 4th or better in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. With a split backfield and a tough matchup, I have a hard time clicking on either running back for this slate.
The Buccaneers have a good run defense, but that doesn’t lead to a lot of sacks and turnovers. I’m fine fading their defense on this slate. Chase McLaughlin isn’t a priority for me with the Buccaneers being 7-point underdogs, but he has made multiple field goals in 6 of his last 9 games.
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Los Angeles Rams Preview
Matthew Stafford is currently the odds-on favorite to win the NFL MVP. That’s really the only thing missing from his Hall of Fame career at this point. He’s a pure pocket passer at this stage of his career, which means he doesn’t offer any rushing upside. While that’s a negative for most quarterbacks, Stafford still offers plenty of upside. He has scored at least 26 fantasy points in 5 of 10 games this season. The Buccaneers are worse against the pass than they are against the run, and they have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Los Angeles’ 2025 wideout usage:
- Puka Nacua: 74% route participation, 28% target share, 29% air yards share
- Davante Adams: 81% route participation, 25% target share, 38% air yards share
- Jordan Whittington: 45% route participation, 5% target share, 4% air yards share
- Tyler Higbee: 48% route participation, 10% target share, 6% air yards share
Over the last few weeks, the DFS community has been up in arms over the routes for Puka Nacua. Over the last 3 games, his route share has dipped to 63% because the Rams have been running a lot of 2-tight end sets. While not ideal, Stafford is still forcing the ball to him when he’s on the field. This is a receiver who has averaged 23 fantasy points per game this season, so we shouldn’t overreact to him running fewer routes. Davante Adams has seen a league-high 19 end-zone targets this season. He has already scored 10 touchdowns in 10 games. Both of these players deserve consideration against the Buccaneers, who have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Jordan Whittington is the WR3 on a team that doesn’t throw the ball to receivers not named Nacua or Adams. He and Xavier Smith are large-field tournament darts at best. While Stafford does like throwing the ball to his tight ends, the Rams regularly use three tight ends: Colby Parkinson, Tyler Higbee, and Terrance Ferguson. They are all extremely cheap, so I don’t mind mixing and matching them throughout your tournament lineups. Over the last 3 games, Higbee has run the most routes (39%), Parkinson has seen the most targets (9%), and Ferguson has seen the most air yards (19%).
Kyren Williams has had ball security issues this season, but he still doesn’t have competition for touches in this backfield. Blake Corum will see a handful of snaps, but he has struggled to do much of anything. The Buccaneers are known as one of the best pass-funnel matchups in the league, but they have quietly given up the 6th-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Williams should play on 70% or more of the snaps and has a clear path to 15+ touches as a home favorite.
The Rams are 7th in pressure rate over expectation this season and could be playing with a lead in this one. Their defense is viable in tournaments. Kicker Harrison Mevis is set to make his 3rd start with the Rams. I like the spot for him, but we don’t know if he’s a reliable kicker yet.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is shaping up to be a fun Showdown slate. We have no shortage of spends, but we don’t have a ton of strong value plays. The best way to make the stars-and-scrubs lineups work is to take a chance on one or two of the Rams’ tight ends. My favorite for tournaments is Terrance Ferguson, who continues to get deep targets down the field. I am playing around with the idea of building 3 lineups with one of the cheap Rams’ tight ends at each MVP and CPT spot.
Buccaneers vs. Rams DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 23.81 | $11,800 | 2.02 | $12,800 | 1.86 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 20.41 | $10,800 | 1.89 | $11,200 | 1.82 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | 17.70 | $10,600 | 1.67 | $11,600 | 1.53 |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | WR | 16.63 | $9,600 | 1.73 | $9,800 | 1.70 |
| Davante Adams | LAR | WR | 16.01 | $9,800 | 1.63 | $10,400 | 1.54 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 13.98 | $10,000 | 1.40 | $12,000 | 1.17 |
| Sean Tucker | TB | RB | 11.13 | $6,400 | 1.74 | $8,400 | 1.33 |
| Rachaad White | TB | RB | 10.77 | $7,000 | 1.54 | $8,600 | 1.25 |
| Cade Otton | TB | TE | 10.42 | $5,400 | 1.93 | $5,800 | 1.80 |
| Harrison Mevis | LAR | K | 9.16 | $4,600 | 1.99 | $6,600 | 1.39 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | WR | 8.62 | $7,600 | 1.13 | $5,400 | 1.60 |
| Chase McLaughlin | TB | K | 8.43 | $5,000 | 1.69 | $6,200 | 1.36 |
| Tez Johnson | TB | WR | 8.06 | $4,000 | 2.02 | $7,400 | 1.09 |
| Blake Corum | LAR | RB | 6.98 | $3,000 | 2.33 | $7,200 | 0.97 |
| Rams | LAR | DST | 6.20 | $4,800 | 1.29 | $6,800 | 0.91 |
| Terrance Ferguson | LAR | TE | 5.79 | $1,600 | 3.62 | $3,200 | 1.81 |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 5.04 | $2,400 | 2.10 | $4,000 | 1.26 |
| Sterling Shepard | TB | WR | 5.03 | $3,600 | 1.40 | $7,000 | 0.72 |
| Jordan Whittington | LAR | WR | 4.99 | $2,800 | 1.78 | $4,800 | 1.04 |
| Buccaneers | TB | DST | 4.24 | $4,400 | 0.96 | $6,400 | 0.66 |
| Davis Allen | LAR | TE | 2.58 | $2,000 | 1.29 | $1,800 | 1.43 |
Buccaneers vs. Rams Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 16-18
Jordan Whittington less than 12.5 receiving yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Taking the less than in a Pick’em with a total of 12.5 receiving yards is always a little scary; we could lose this on 1 reception. However, I like our chances. The Rams love to run 2-tight end sets, which often leaves Whittington on the sideline. Over the last 3 games, he has only run a route on 36% of snaps and has only caught 1 pass during that stretch. We know the targets are going to funnel to Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, the running backs, and the tight ends.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus