The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Falcons vs. Vikings
For this Week 2 Sunday Night Football matchup on 9/14 featuring the Falcons vs. Vikings, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Falcons vs. Vikings
We are back for another Showdown breakdown, this one between the Falcons and Vikings. These are teams with playoff aspirations. The teams had opposite performances in Week 1. The Vikings completed an epic comeback against the Bears, while the Falcons did Falcon things and somehow lost to the Buccaneers despite gaining 100 more yards than Tampa, dominating time of possession, and not committing a turnover.
This game features two of the youngest starting quarterbacks in the league, so it’ll be fun to watch them square off in the dome. The game features a 4.5-point spread (Vikings are favored) and a 45.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Jamal Agnew – Out
Casey Washington – Out
Jordan Addison – Out
Atlanta Falcons Preview
The Falcons should be encouraged by what Michael Penix provided them in the passing game in Week 1. He got the ball out quickly, he threw for nearly 300 yards, and he didn’t commit a turnover. From a fantasy perspective, it was encouraging to see his 6 rushing attempts for 21 yards and a touchdown. This is an exploitable matchup, even though the Vikings shut down Caleb Williams and the Bears in the second half of their Week 1 game. That had more to do with Williams missing wide-open throws. In PFF’s grades against the pass, they had Minnesota 31st in Week 1.
Drake London hurt his shoulder in Week 1, while Darnell Mooney missed the season opener with a shoulder injury. Both were on the injury report early in the week, but they have been taken off the injury report for Sunday night. Casey Washington has been ruled out, but he wasn’t expected to have a major role with Mooney returning to the lineup. London soaked up massive usage numbers last week (36% target share, 37% air yards share) and deserves consideration at the multiplier spots (MVP/CPT). Mooney is more of a tournament target on this slate. Kyle Pitts caught 7 of 8 targets in Week 1, but I’ve been playing DFS long enough to know not to fall for that trap.
Bijan Robinson couldn’t get much going on the ground against the Buccaneers, but he caught 7 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown. He has a similar matchup this week, as the Vikings are one of the best pass-funnel defenses in the league. In other words, they are elite against the run but vulnerable against the pass. While Tyler Allgeier did see 10 rushing attempts in Week 1, he only ran a route on 11% of dropbacks compared to 77% for Robinson. There will be matchups where Allgeier can be used as a cheap target in Showdown, but this doesn’t seem like one of them.
The Falcons’ defense is facing a young quarterback, but that’s all they have going for them on Sunday night. They could always force a turnover and score a touchdown, but I would rather target the skill position players in this game. Kicker Younghoe Koo is on the hot seat after missing a late field goal against the Buccaneers. While there’s some risk here, I do think the kicker for the Falcons will see plenty of field goal opportunities this season.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below by Dan Back, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an NFL Premium subscription!
Minnesota Vikings Preview
It’s funny how quickly our perceptions change on a player. I saw so many Tweets about how bad J.J. McCarthy was when the Vikings couldn’t move the ball early in the game against the Bears. A few hours later, he led his team to a comeback win, and everyone was ready to crown him as the next best thing. I know it’s hard, but let’s try to have some patience when it comes to our takes on social media. McCarthy finished the game with 143 passing yards and 3 combined touchdowns. He now gets to play at home against the Falcons, who are not built to stop the pass.
Let’s take a look at the underlying usage for Minnesota’s wideouts in Week 1:
- Justin Jefferson: 35% target share, 56% air yards share, 96% route participation
- Adam Thielen: 5% target share, 6% air yards share, 63% route participation
- Jalen Nailor: 5% target share, 14% air yards share, 88% route participation
- T.J. Hockenson: 20% target share, 19% air yards share, 75% route participation
Jefferson only caught 4 passes for 44 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, but his usage metrics were off the charts. If his 35% target share and 56% air yards share continue, he’s going to put up some slate-breaking performances. This is a better spot for McCarthy as a whole, so we should feel good about Jefferson. He has more upside than any player on the slate. In terms of the matchup, A.J. Terrell hasn’t exactly been a shut-down cornerback over the last couple of seasons.
Box score lovers will see 1 target each for Thielen and Nailor and think that they weren’t on the field much. However, they ran routes on 63% and 88% of McCarthy’s dropbacks (respectively). With Jordan Addison still out, they are both strong bounce-back candidates in Week 2. After the Falcons were torched by Emeka Egbuka in the slot in Week 1, I want to be overweight on Thielen in all formats. Hockenson was very involved in Week 1 and will continue to be the second-biggest threat in the passing game while Addison is out.
Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason were both effective in Week 1’s game against the Bears. Mason led the way with 15 carries for 68 yards, while Jones caught 3 passes for 44 yards and a touchdown. Based on what we saw in Week 1, Mason should get more of the early-down work, while Jones should get more of the passing-down work. I will note that Mason did out-snap Jones even though it was not a positive game script for him. Both are viable against the Falcons, but I will side with Mason since the Vikings are 3.5-point home favorites.
The Vikings’ defense is good against the run, so we should see a lot of dropbacks for Michael Penix. While he’s done a great job of taking care of the football in his limited NFL experience, there’s at least a path for Minnesota’s defense to rack up some sacks and turnovers. Of the kickers, Will Reichard is the safer option for DFS.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
With Drake London and Darnell Mooney off the injury report, we have a serious lack of value on this slate. Given his price and his projection, Tyler Allgeier is set to be the chalk value play. As noted in the breakdown, this is a really tough spot for him. He’s not involved in the passing game, and the Vikings have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. I’m happy to take a full-fade stance on Allgeier. I would rather find a little extra salary for Will Reichard or Adam Thielen. Not only do I like their chances better in this game environment, but they will be considerably lower owned than Allgeier.
Falcons vs. Vikings DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 19.67 | $11,800 | 1.67 | $13,600 | 1.45 |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | QB | 18.33 | $9,400 | 1.95 | $11,200 | 1.64 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 18.04 | $12,000 | 1.50 | $13,800 | 1.31 |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | 16.88 | $10,400 | 1.62 | $10,200 | 1.65 |
| Michael Penix | ATL | QB | 16.50 | $9,600 | 1.72 | $11,400 | 1.45 |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | RB | 13.17 | $7,600 | 1.73 | $9,600 | 1.37 |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 11.05 | $6,200 | 1.78 | $8,000 | 1.38 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 9.91 | $5,800 | 1.71 | $5,800 | 1.71 |
| Darnell Mooney | ATL | WR | 8.46 | $7,000 | 1.21 | $8,200 | 1.03 |
| Will Reichard | MIN | K | 7.97 | $5,000 | 1.59 | $6,800 | 1.17 |
| Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 6.53 | $4,800 | 1.36 | $5,400 | 1.21 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 6.39 | $3,000 | 2.13 | $4,200 | 1.52 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 6.32 | $4,400 | 1.44 | $7,400 | 0.85 |
| Falcons | ATL | DST | 5.72 | $3,600 | 1.59 | $6,000 | 0.95 |
| Younghoe Koo | ATL | K | 5.70 | $4,600 | 1.24 | $6,400 | 0.89 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | ATL | WR | 4.82 | $5,400 | 0.89 | $4,800 | 1.00 |
| Jalen Nailor | MIN | WR | 4.25 | $4,000 | 1.06 | $3,800 | 1.12 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 3.72 | $2,400 | 1.55 | $2,000 | 1.86 |
| Casey Washington | ATL | WR | 2.88 | $2,000 | 1.44 | $2,400 | 1.20 |
Falcons vs. Vikings Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 2-3
Adam Thielen more than 15.5 receiving yards (1.74x) – Sleeper Fantasy
As noted in the game breakdown, I view this as a great bounce-back spot for Adam Thielen. He only caught 1 pass for 5 yards in the opener against the Bears, but he ran a route on 63% of dropbacks after expecting to play a limited role entering the week. He runs most of his routes from the slot, which means he’ll see a lot of work underneath and over the middle. I think he could become a safety blanket for J.J. McCarthy until Jordan Addison comes back from his suspension.
Use our Sleeper promo code RGBONUS for a $100 sign-up bonus.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus