The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Lions vs. Chiefs
For this Week 6 Sunday Night Football matchup on 10/12 featuring the Lions vs. Chiefs, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Lions vs. Chiefs
I hope everyone’s Week 6 is going swimmingly thus far. We have a real treat on Sunday night, as we have a star-studded game between the Lions and Chiefs. After getting blown out by the Packers in their opener, the Lions have rattled off four straight wins by an average of 19 points. The Chiefs can’t seem to decide which direction they are heading in. After losing their first two games of the season, they bounced back with wins over the Giants and Ravens (which don’t seem as impressive in hindsight). Last week, they blew a late lead against the Jaguars and are now 2-3 on the season.
The Chiefs are favored by 2.5 points, while the game features a total of 52.5 points.
Key Injuries
Kalif Raymond – Questionable
Rashee Rice – Out
Detroit Lions Preview
Perceptions can change quickly in the NFL. After struggling in the opener, everyone said the Lions’ offense wasn’t the same without Ben Johnson. After scoring 52, 38, 34, and 37 points in the last 4 games, everyone is ready to crown them as the best offense in football. Like most things in life, we need to be more patient with our takes. Jared Goff has only had one ceiling game this season, but he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in 3 of the last 4 games. Some say his biggest weakness is playing outdoors, but I would counter and say his biggest weakness is being under pressure. The bad news for Goff is that this game is outdoors and that the Chiefs have the highest pressure rate in the NFL.
Detroit’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 91% route participation, 27% target share, 31% air yards share
- Jameson Williams: 90% route participation, 14% target share, 40% air yards share
- Isaac TeSlaa: 28% route participation, 3% target share, 9% air yards share
- Sam LaPorta: 76% route participation, 19% target share, 15% air yards share
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a strong target every week, but this particular matchup is intriguing. Jameson Williams currently has an aDOT of 20.2, which is one of the highest marks in the league. With the Chiefs having the best pressure rate in the NFL, it’s hard to imagine Goff having enough time in the pocket for Williams to get open downfield. I expect St. Brown to see a ton of targets in this one, especially since he runs more than half of his routes from the slot. He’s topped 20 fantasy points in 4 straight games and deserves consideration at MVP and CPT.
While I’m not prioritizing Williams, he still deserves a look in large-field tournaments. It’s only a matter of time before he catches a couple of those deep throws from Goff. Isaac TeSlaa and Kalif Raymond are splitting WR3 duties at the moment. Neither player has been particularly effective this season, but they are cheap enough to keep in your player pool for large-field tournaments. The Chiefs have given up the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, which does limit the appeal of LaPorta. However, he’s always a threat in the red zone and has a healthy 19% target rate on the season.
The Lions made an effort to get David Montgomery the ball in his return to his hometown last week. He had 19 total touches, a rushing touchdown, and a passing touchdown. We know Dan Campbell loves a narrative, so it was easy to see that performance coming. I expect things to shift back in the favor of Jahmyr Gibbs this week after only seeing 14 touches against the Bengals. It’s a tremendous matchup for both, as the Chiefs are 26th in PFF’s grades against the pass and 31st in EPA against the run. It doesn’t feel right pairing uncorrelated players, but I have no issue with builds that include both Montgomery and Gibbs.
The Lions are playing on the road against one of the best pass-blocking units in football. They do get a decent amount of pressure on the quarterback, but I have a hard time playing a defense in a game that features a total of 52.5 points. The Lions haven’t had to settle for many field goals this season, but that could change given the fairly difficult matchup on the road. Kicker Jake Bates is a reasonable option on this slate.
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Kansas City Chiefs Preview
The Chiefs are only 2-3 this season, yet Patrick Mahomes is having his best fantasy season in a long time. After struggling to crack 20 fantasy points more than a handful of times the last couple of seasons, he has already topped 23 fantasy points in 4 games this season. He has rushed for over 50 yards in 3 games, and he threw for 318 yards against the Jaguars. The Chiefs quietly have the highest pass rate over expectation this season, and it’s not particularly close. Mahomes is close to a must-play on this slate and is one of my favorite options at MVP and CPT. The Lions are 21st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season.
Kansas City’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Xavier Worthy: 47% route participation, 15% target share, 29% air yards share
- Hollywood Brown: 70% route participation, 21% target share, 24% air yards share
- Juju Smith-Schuster: 66% route participation, 11% target share, 6% air yards share
- Travis Kelce: 75% route participation, 16% target share, 9% air yards share
Rashee Rice is set to return from suspension next week, so the wideout usage is about to change quite a bit. Xavier Worthy has been dealing with ankle and shoulder injuries, but he isn’t listed on the injury report for this game. His usage numbers from last week were certainly encouraging (81% route participation, 22% target share, and a 30% air yards share) even if he didn’t have a huge outing in the box score. The Lions have long struggled to defend wide receivers, and this season is no different (25th in fantasy points allowed).
Hollywood Brown has been quiet since Week 1, but he did see 8 targets against the Jaguars. I prefer Worthy over Brown here, but getting exposure to both isn’t a bad idea if you are building multiple lineups. Juju Smith-Schuster has a limited ceiling with his low aDOT, while Tyquan Thornton continues to get peppered with targets down the field. He’s coming off a game where he caught 3-of-5 targets for 90 yards against the Jaguars. Travis Kelce only has 9% of the team’s air yards this season. I know he scored a touchdown last week, but I don’t love his underlying usage or his matchup against the Lions.
It’ll be interesting to see the backfield split for the Chiefs this week. Kareem Hunt is coming off a game where he averaged 7.0 yards per carry and scored 2 touchdowns, yet he still only played on 33% of the snaps. Isiah Pacheco was on the field for 62% of the snaps but only saw 10 touches. It looked like Brashard Smith was starting to carve out a role for himself in this offense, but he only played on 7% of the snaps against the Jaguars. This backfield is a mess, and the Lions are 5th in EPA against the run this season. I’ll take my chances with a fade of Hunt, Pacheco, and Smith.
If you are big-braining this slate, there’s a path for the Chiefs’ defense to be on the optimal lineup. Jared Goff has historically struggled under pressure and outdoors, and the Chiefs do have the highest pressure rate in the league. Cue the Dumb & Dumber GIF, “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?” Kicker Harrison Butker is viable, although I’m not sure either team can afford to settle for field goals in this game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is both a fun slate and a challenging slate. On paper, I like the spots for Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Patrick Mahomes, and Xavier Worthy, but there’s a pesky little thing called a salary cap that is preventing me from targeting all of these players. You have to pick and choose your spots. Mahomes is the one player I plan to roster on every lineup, as he’s playing at an extremely high level. It’s hard to imagine a bad game from Mahomes given the team’s implied total of 27.5 points.
Lions vs. Chiefs DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 23.31 | $10,000 | 2.33 | $12,000 | 1.94 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 20.40 | $10,800 | 1.89 | $13,000 | 1.57 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 18.89 | $11,000 | 1.72 | $12,800 | 1.48 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 16.79 | $9,600 | 1.75 | $12,200 | 1.38 |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 16.78 | $9,000 | 1.86 | $10,000 | 1.68 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 11.89 | $8,000 | 1.49 | $8,600 | 1.38 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 11.20 | $7,600 | 1.47 | $7,200 | 1.56 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 10.38 | $5,800 | 1.79 | $7,800 | 1.33 |
| Hollywood Brown | KC | WR | 10.02 | $5,400 | 1.86 | $5,800 | 1.73 |
| David Montgomery | DET | RB | 9.89 | $7,000 | 1.41 | $9,200 | 1.08 |
| Jake Bates | DET | K | 8.82 | $5,200 | 1.70 | $6,600 | 1.34 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 8.55 | $4,000 | 2.14 | $7,400 | 1.16 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 8.45 | $5,000 | 1.69 | $6,800 | 1.24 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | RB | 8.22 | $4,600 | 1.79 | $5,400 | 1.52 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | WR | 6.99 | $2,800 | 2.50 | $4,600 | 1.52 |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC | WR | 6.10 | $4,400 | 1.39 | $5,000 | 1.22 |
| Lions | DET | DST | 5.93 | $3,800 | 1.56 | $6,400 | 0.93 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 5.80 | $3,400 | 1.71 | $6,000 | 0.97 |
| Brashard Smith | KC | RB | 5.49 | $3,000 | 1.83 | $3,000 | 1.83 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 5.13 | $1,200 | 4.28 | $3,400 | 1.51 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | DET | WR | 4.33 | $2,400 | 1.80 | $3,800 | 1.14 |
| Kalif Raymond | DET | WR | 3.05 | $2,000 | 1.53 | $2,800 | 1.09 |
Lions vs. Chiefs Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 6-10
Xavier Worthy more than 71.5 rushing + receiving yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Worthy didn’t quite hit the mark that we needed last week against the Jaguars, but he saw 9 targets and had a rushing attempt. I’m going right back to the well this week, as he draws an even better matchup against the Lions, who have allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season. Once again, I prefer the rushing + receiving pick’em play over just the receiving play, as Worthy is capable of breaking off a long run or two.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus