The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Lions vs. Eagles
For this Week 11 Sunday Night Football matchup on 11/16 featuring the Lions vs. Eagles, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Lions vs. Eagles
We are back with another Sunday Night Football edition of the NFL Grind Down. As always, I hope the main slate treated you well. We have a real treat in this one, as two of the NFC’s best square off in Philadelphia. The Lions are 6-3 on the season with a point differential of +83. The Eagles are 7-2 on the season with a point differential of +27. Both teams currently sit atop their respective divisions. This game features a 2.5-point spread and a 46.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Friday)
Sam LaPorta – Questionable
Detroit Lions Preview
Jared Goff has had some underwhelming games this season (4 outings with fewer than 13 fantasy points), but he has had some ceiling games as well (27 and 37 fantasy points). He tends to be at his best indoors and when he’s not under pressure. I wouldn’t say that’s great news for this weekend, as the game is outdoors, and the Eagles have the 6th-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season. They have also allowed the 9th-fewest fantasy points. With that said, quarterbacks are always viable for Showdown slates.
Detroit’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 87% route participation, 29% target share, 37% air yards share
- Jameson Williams: 88% route participation, 16% target share, 35% air yards share
- Kalif Raymond: 41% route participation, 6% target share, 5% air yards share
- Sam LaPorta: 77% route participation, 18% target share, 16% air yards share
Sam LaPorta has not practiced all week, which is generally a bad sign for a player’s availability. If he does end up being out, that will open up 18% of the target share and 16% of the air yards share. Brock Wright would step in as the TE1 and become one of the best value plays on the slate. The Eagles are tough against tight ends (3rd in fantasy points allowed), but Wright would only need a couple of catches to pay off his cheap salary. He could also be a key to unlocking the ability to afford the superstars.
Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the team in target share and air yards share. He could be the main beneficiary if LaPorta sits, as both players run a lot of their routes over the middle of the field. If LaPorta is out, ARSB could realistically see 12+ targets. After a brutal start to the season, Jameson Williams has caught 10-of-13 targets for 185 yards and 2 touchdowns over the last 2 games. He remains a strong tournament target. Kalif Raymond and Isaac TeSlaa are only worth a look in large-field tournaments.
Jahmyr Gibbs broke the slate last week with 173 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. His 2 biggest games this season have both come after his 2 worst games of the season. That trend could be something to store for later use. It’s a tough matchup on the ground (Eagles are 4th in PFF’s grades against the run and 10th in EPA against the run), but they have given up 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. I would only look to David Montgomery if you think the Lions roll in this one.
On a slate that is loaded with star power, I won’t be using any roster spots on these defenses. Kicker Jake Bates has been held to 1 or fewer field goals in 6 of 9 games this season.
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Philadelphia Eagles Preview
Jalen Hurts has only thrown for more than 200 yards in 4 of 9 games this season, which is not a hard mark to hit for an average quarterback in the NFL. However, he’s had multiple passing touchdowns in 5 of the last 7 games and has plenty of rushing upside. Despite the low passing volume, he has still topped 19 fantasy points in 7 of 9 games. He’s close to a must-play against the Lions, who have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Philly’s 2025 wideout usage:
- A.J. Brown: 90% route participation, 24% target share, 34% air yards share
- DeVonta Smith: 95% route participation, 26% target share, 38% air yards share
- Jahan Dotson: 68% route participation, 6% target share, 11% air yards share
- Dallas Goedert: 79% route participation, 20% target share, 19% air yards share
A.J. Brown is not happy with his role in the offense right now. He’s even making comments about it while playing Madden. We have a squeaky wheel narrative at play after he only had 2 receptions for 13 yards last week against the Packers. DeVonta Smith has actually had a higher target share and air yards share than Brown this season. The matchup is solid for both players, as the Lions should keep the Eagles aggressive, and Detroit has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Jahan Dotson is on the field a bunch, but he has seen a 6% target share on a team that doesn’t like to throw the ball. I’d rather take my chances with the Lions’ value plays (assuming Sam LaPorta is out). Dallas Goedert has a slightly more difficult matchup than the receivers, as the Lions are 11th against tight ends. He’s still viable in tournaments given his usage metrics (20% target share, 19% air yards share) this season.
Saquon Barkley has been so much more volatile than anyone could have imagined this season. He’s been held under 10 fantasy points in 3 games and has only topped 20 fantasy points in 1 game. While this game has shootout potential and is an important one for both teams, the Lions are 6th in PFF’s grades against the run and 3rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley are splitting backup duty, which isn’t a great role to begin with when playing behind Barkley.
As noted earlier, I have no interest in these defenses. Kicker Jake Elliott has only made more than 1 field goal once all season.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
First of all, I want no part of these defenses in a game that could shoot out and has a ton of superstars to choose from. I usually like at least one of the kickers, but these teams have not been settling for field goals. These kickers have only 4 games combined with 2 or more field goals this season. If you want to play the squeaky wheel narrative with A.J. Brown, you have to decide whether you want to pair him with Jalen Hurts or with Saquon Barkley. Given the matchup, I like the Hurts/Brown pairing. For the Lions, we could have some value open up if Sam LaPorta is out. My favorite targets from the Lions are Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Lions vs. Eagles DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 21.32 | $10,400 | 2.05 | $13,000 | 1.64 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 19.57 | $10,800 | 1.81 | $11,400 | 1.72 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 17.34 | $9,600 | 1.81 | $10,600 | 1.64 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 17.01 | $10,600 | 1.60 | $12,600 | 1.35 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 15.96 | $10,000 | 1.60 | $12,000 | 1.33 |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 15.29 | $8,000 | 1.91 | $9,200 | 1.66 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 14.82 | $8,400 | 1.76 | $8,800 | 1.68 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 12.34 | $7,600 | 1.62 | $8,200 | 1.50 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 11.46 | $5,600 | 2.05 | $7,600 | 1.51 |
| David Montgomery | DET | RB | 11.28 | $5,200 | 2.17 | $7,400 | 1.52 |
| Jake Bates | DET | K | 8.26 | $4,600 | 1.80 | $6,400 | 1.29 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | K | 7.69 | $4,800 | 1.60 | $6,600 | 1.17 |
| Brock Wright | DET | TE | 5.88 | $1,600 | 3.68 | $2,200 | 2.67 |
| Lions | DET | DST | 5.57 | $3,600 | 1.55 | $6,000 | 0.93 |
| Eagles | PHI | DST | 5.34 | $4,000 | 1.34 | $6,200 | 0.86 |
| Kalif Raymond | DET | WR | 3.07 | $3,000 | 1.02 | $2,800 | 1.10 |
| Ross Dwelley | DET | TE | 2.48 | $200 | 12.40 | $1,000 | 2.48 |
| Jahan Dotson | PHI | WR | 2.47 | $2,400 | 1.03 | $3,800 | 0.65 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | DET | WR | 2.22 | $1,000 | 2.22 | $2,600 | 0.85 |
| Tank Bigsby | PHI | RB | 2.15 | $2,600 | 0.83 | $4,600 | 0.47 |
| Will Shipley | PHI | RB | 1.70 | $2,000 | 0.85 | $5,200 | 0.33 |
| Grant Calcaterra | PHI | TE | 1.57 | $1,200 | 1.31 | $1,600 | 0.98 |
Lions vs. Eagles Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 15-15
A.J. Brown more than 63.5 receiving yards (1.95x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Even if you don’t want to use the squeaky wheel narrative for A.J. Brown after last week’s 2-reception game, this number feels too low. Brown has racked up at least 80 receiving yards in 3 of his last 6 games. He tends to see more targets in big games and against tough opponents, so I’m expecting 8-10 targets in this one.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus