The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Cowboys vs. Eagles
For this Week 1 Thursday Night Football matchup featuring the Cowboys vs. Eagles, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Cowboys vs. Eagles
The kids are back in school, the leaves are changing, and Week 1 of the NFL season is here. We are back, baby!
The Cowboys have been the subject of many headlines recently. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, it hasn’t been for a good reason. After failing to come to terms with Micah Parsons on a contract extension, Jerry Jones traded him to the Packers for two future 1st-round picks and defensive tackle Kenny Clark. After watching “America’s Team” on Netflix, this feels somewhat reminiscent of the Herschel Walker trade. However, I have a feeling this trade won’t lead to three Super Bowl rings for Dallas.
With all of the distractions, a lackluster defense, and a lengthy history of performing below expectations, it’ll be interesting to see how the Cowboys fare this year. For the season opener, they have to travel to Philadelphia to take on the Super Bowl Champions. The Eagles are listed as 7.5-point favorites. The total for the game is sitting at 47.5 points, which is tied for the 2nd highest of any game on the Week 1 schedule.
It’s great to be back. Let’s break down the first game of the season.
Key Injuries
Jaydon Blue – Questionable
Dallas Cowboys Preview
It can’t be a fun time for Dallas fans. In a single year, the city has traded away two of its biggest superstars, Luka Doncic and Micah Parsons. The Cowboys enter the 2025 season with a win total of 7.5 games, which is not encouraging given the fact that they’ve been NFC East contenders for most of the last decade.
While it’s true that we truly don’t know these teams as much as we think we do, I’m having a hard time seeing the Cowboys being competitive in this game unless they get an all-world performance from Dak Prescott and the passing game. Luckily for them, everything is set up for Prescott this season. They now have three 1st-rounders on the line protecting Prescott and have a solid unit overall. Additionally, they have added George Pickens as an elite weapon outside to complement CeeDee Lamb. Given the likely game script, I want to be overweight on Prescott and his pass-catchers on this Showdown slate.
In Prescott’s last full season, Lamb led the league in receptions. Running the majority of his routes from the slot, he’s a high-floor, high-ceiling target in DFS every single week. Given how bad the Cowboys’ defense is expected to be, he will likely be at the top of the league in targets this season. The Eagles are more beatable over the middle of the field (which sets up better for Lamb), but we shouldn’t ignore Pickens in his Dallas debut. He’s a legitimate downfield threat who has never played with a great quarterback. Double stacks with Prescott are certainly viable, but they do hinder your ability to roster the stars on the Eagles.
KaVontae Turpin isn’t a lock to be third in WR snaps after Lamb and Pickens, but he does have the edge heading into Week 1. He’s a speedster who can stretch the field and provide some help in the running game. Over the last 2 seasons, he’s turned 27 carries into 202 yards and a touchdown. Jalen Tolbert and Ryan Flournoy should also see snaps in 3-receiver sets and are reasonable punts on DraftKings. Jake Ferguson struggled last season and failed to catch a touchdown in 14 games, but he signed a $52-million extension in the offseason, so he’s clearly the top tight end in this offense. The Eagles were one of the toughest teams in the NFL against tight ends last season, but Ferguson is firmly in play for this Showdown slate.
One of the reasons why we should be so high on the passing game is a lack of weapons in the running game. Rico Dowdle is no longer on the roster, which means the Cowboys will enter the season with Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and Jaydon Blue in the backfield. Blue easily has the most explosiveness of the bunch, but he suffered an ankle injury in camp and wasn’t able to play in any of the preseason games. Williams is projected for the majority of the early-down work, but all three players should see action against an Eagles defense that allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to running backs last season.
Let’s see…we have a bad defense that just lost its best player, and they are going on the road to face the defending champs in a tough environment. If fading the Cowboys’ defense burns me, that’s something I can live with. While Brandon Aubrey is one of the best kickers in football, I’m not sure how many field goals the Cowboys can afford to settle for in this game.
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Philadelphia Eagles Preview
The Eagles are coming off of a huge season where they dominated the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. With the Cowboys and Giants seemingly headed in the wrong direction, the only competition for Philly in the NFC East is the Commanders. The Eagles are the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl again, they are -150 to win the NFC East, and they have a win total of 11.5 games. It’s still very sunny in Philadelphia.
Jalen Hurts was one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football last season. At this point, we can expect that to continue every season until something changes in Philadelphia. He has an elite offensive line, he has plenty of weapons in the passing game, he has an elite rushing attack, and the tush push is still a legal play. He should have another monster fantasy season, and for the season opener, he doesn’t have to worry about Parsons and likely won’t have to worry about Trevon Diggs. I expect the Cowboys to have a bottom-10 defense this season, so Hurts is a lock-and-load target on this Showdown slate.
A.J. Brown has been dealing with a hamstring injury and missed most of training camp, but he’s been practicing in full, so he should be out there for this game. I wouldn’t have been scared of a matchup against Diggs anyway, but it certainly doesn’t hurt that he seems unlikely to play at this point. DeVonta Smith is one of the best slot receivers in the NFL and should have plenty of opportunities in this game. Jahan Dotson and John Metchie will see snaps in 3-receiver sets, but they are well down the list of priorities when it comes to mouths to feed in this offense. Dallas Goedert should see a higher target share than both Dotson and Metchie. At his price point, he could fly under the radar in DFS.
The Cowboys had one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL last season. They were bottom 3 in both EPA against the run and PFF’s grades against the run. While Parsons is mostly known for his ability to get after the quarterback, he’s actually an excellent run stopper. Essentially, this defense lost its best pass rusher and its best run stopper. Given the matchup and expected game script, this is an eruption spot for Saquon Barkley, who led the NFL in touches last season. This is also a sneaky spot for Will Shipley, as he’s the clear RB2 in this offense now that Kenneth Gainwell is gone. There’s a path for both running backs to end up in the optimal lineup (especially on DraftKings).
The Eagles’ defense is an interesting option in large-field tournaments. They should have a favorable game script, and we can expect the Cowboys to air it out often. This is generally a good recipe for the fantasy production of a defense. However, they might give up a decent amount of points in the process. Kicker Jake Elliott is firmly in play, although in general, a kicker’s upside is limited compared to skill position players.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The big question in Showdown is always what to do at the multiplier (MVP/CPT) positions. Not only is it the most important spot to fill, but it dictates what you can do with the rest of your roster. On both FanDuel and DraftKings, the multiplier spot gets 1.5x the fantasy points but costs 1.5x the salary. More often than not, you want to fill the MVP/CPT spots with the best overall plays. There are a handful of Showdown slates where there’s an elite value that makes sense in the multiplier spots, but I’m not seeing it for this game.
Personally, I want to be overweight on the Cowboys’ passing attack and overweight on the Eagles’ rushing attack. I typically build between 1 to 5 lineups per Showdown slate, and each of my lineups will have both starting quarterbacks. I won’t have any exposure to the defenses and will have only a small bit of exposure to Jake Elliott. My favorite targets at MVP/CPT are CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, and Saquon Barkley.
Cowboys vs. Eagles DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 24.02 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 2.18 | $12,200 | 1.97 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 19.10 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.71 | $14,400 | 1.33 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 17.61 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.63 | $12,000 | 1.47 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 16.68 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.85 | $10,800 | 1.54 |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 16.20 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.72 | $11,200 | 1.45 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 12.88 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.53 | $9,600 | 1.34 |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR | 12.29 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.54 | $8,400 | 1.46 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | 9.75 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.81 | $6,600 | 1.48 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 8.31 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.30 | $7,400 | 1.12 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 8.11 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.56 | $5,000 | 1.62 |
| Eagles | PHI | DST | 7.79 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.69 | $7,800 | 1.00 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 7.14 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.49 | $6,200 | 1.15 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | K | 6.93 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.58 | $5,800 | 1.19 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 5.38 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.49 | $5,400 | 1.00 |
| Miles Sanders | DAL | RB | 5.37 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.34 | $4,000 | 1.34 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 4.95 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.77 | $2,800 | 1.77 |
| Jaydon Blue | DAL | RB | 3.86 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 0.77 | $2,400 | 1.61 |
| Jahan Dotson | PHI | WR | 3.49 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.09 | $3,000 | 1.16 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 3.23 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.02 | $1,600 | 2.02 |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 2.89 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 0.85 | $5,200 | 0.56 |
| Will Shipley | PHI | RB | 2.52 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.26 | $3,400 | 0.74 |
| Kylen Granson | PHI | TE | 2.22 | $200 | $300 | 11.10 | $1,400 | 1.59 |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | WR | 1.50 | $200 | $300 | 7.50 | $1,000 | 1.50 |
Cowboys vs. Eagles Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 0-0
CeeDee Lamb more than 6.5 receptions (1.81x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We had an excellent 2024 season when it came to the fantasy pick’em section of this article, so I’m hoping we can replicate that this season. For starters, you should take advantage of Sleeper’s current promo of Dak Prescott throwing for more than 0.5 yards. As far as my official pick goes, I love the spot for Lamb. As noted earlier, he led the league in receptions in Prescott’s last full season (2 years ago). The Cowboys are underdogs and should have a tough time getting anything going on the ground. Lamb can expect a heavy dose of targets in his first game of the season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus