The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Eagles vs. Giants
For this Week 6 Thursday Night Football matchup on 10/9 featuring the Eagles vs. Giants, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Eagles vs. Giants
Happy Thursday, everyone! We are back with another Grind Down, this one featuring two division rivals. The Eagles are licking their wounds a bit after getting beaten at home by the Broncos, while the Giants are arguably the funnest bad team to watch in football. With Jaxson Dart at the helm and Cam Skattebo looking to mix it up with anyone and everyone, the Giants are becoming a must-watch team despite boasting a -40 point differential on the season.
This game features a 7.5-point spread and a 39.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Darius Slayton – Out
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
The Eagles haven’t had the high-flying offense that we’ve seen over the last few seasons. They are 17th in EPA per play and 12th in points scored per game. In positive game scripts, the Eagles have been happy to run the ball and control the time of possession. Jalen Hurts has thrown 24 or fewer passes in 3 of 5 games this season. While that’s a concern for tonight’s game against the Giants, Hurts has immense upside on the ground. He’s had at least 9 rushing attempts in 4 games and has already scored 4 rushing touchdowns this season. The best part of New York’s defense is its defensive line, so we could see Hurts scrambling more in this game.
Philadelphia’s wideout usage (2025):
- A.J. Brown: 90% route participation, 26% target share, 36% air yards share
- DeVonta Smith: 94% route participation, 22% target share, 28% air yards share
- Jahan Dotson: 70% route participation, 7% target share, 16% air yards share
- Dallas Goedert: 80% route participation, 18% target share, 20% air yards share
The target and air yards shares for A.J. Brown look great on paper, but he’s only scored double-digit fantasy points once all season. His expected fantasy points per game is higher than his actual output, and he does have the squeaky wheel narrative in his favor, so perhaps this is the week to buy shares of the talented receiver. DeVonta Smith has topped 20 fantasy points in 2 of the last 3 games and isn’t far behind Brown in terms of his target and air yards shares. It’s an elite matchup for both, as the Giants have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Jahan Dotson has run a route on 70% of dropbacks this season, but we only have him projected for 3.4 fantasy points. He’s not a super cheap punt ($3,400 on DraftKings), so he offers more risk than upside. Dallas Goedert quietly boasts an 18% target share and a 20% air yards share this season. He’s a cheaper way to get exposure to this passing attack. Even if Grant Calcaterra ends up being out, the ancillary tight ends on the Eagles are unlikely to see any targets.
I’m not exactly sure how the revenge exponent works in fantasy sports. The first time you face your former team obviously carries the most amount of potential revenge, but how much does that dip in subsequent meetings? In his first career game against the Giants, Barkley had 187 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Given the expected game script and the fact that the Giants are 30th in EPA against the run, it’s hard not to love Barkley in this spot. He’s a good bet for 20+ touches as a sizable favorite. Will Shipley is back from injury, but he’s had a total of 2 touches in the last 2 games.
The Eagles are 5th in PFF’s pass rush grades and are facing a rookie quarterback making his third career start. Given the spread, the Giants might have to lean on the pass in this game, especially in the second half. A case can easily be made for the Eagles’ defense. Kicker Jake Elliott has only attempted 5 field goals in 5 games this season. Historically, he’s been a good bet for 2+ field goals, but that hasn’t been the case this season.
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New York Giants Preview
Jaxson Dart has struggled with efficiency in his first 2 NFL starts. He is averaging 5.25 yards per attempt, which is one of the worst marks of any quarterback who has started a game this season. However, Dart has averaged just under 20 fantasy points per game thanks to rushing for 109 yards and a touchdown in those 2 games. As long as he keeps scrambling, we can target him with confidence in DFS, even in bad matchups. Being a home underdog is never bad for a passing attack.
New York’s wideout usage (Weeks 3-5):
- Wan’Dale Robinson: 83% route participation, 17% target share, 15% air yards share
- Darius Slayton: 63% route participation, 15% target share, 29% air yards share
- Jalin Hyatt: 35% route participation, 3% target share, 17% air yards share
- Theo Johnson: 62% route participation, 15% target share, 13% air yards share
- Daniel Bellinger: 24% route participation, 7% target share, 7% air yards share
I pulled the usage metrics from Weeks 3-5 because those are the games the Giants have played without Malik Nabers (he did play for a bit in Week 3). In his absence, Wan’Dale Robinson has had the biggest target share (17%). He runs 77% of his routes from the slot, so he should avoid coverage from star cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, who has yet to give up a touchdown despite seeing 39 passes thrown his way this season. Darius Slayton has been ruled out of this game, which means Jalin Hyatt and Beaux Collins will be the outside receivers. The matchup isn’t great, but they are both strong values given their roles with Nabers and Slayton out. Lil’Jordan Humphrey is also worth a look on DraftKings ($200), as he should see some snaps in this one.
With the Eagles having a good pass rush, we could see a lot of 12 personnel (2 tight ends) from the Giants in this game. Theo Johnson has caught 9-of-12 targets for 50 yards and 3 touchdowns in the 2 games Dart has been under center this season. The touchdown rate is unsustainable, but Dart clearly trusts him in the red zone. There are also more targets to go around thanks to the wide receiver injuries. A sneaky option here is Daniel Bellinger, who had season highs in routes, targets, receptions, and receiving yards last week against the Saints.
Cam Skattebo has been the talk of the league the last few weeks. He’s averaged 20 touches and maybe that many hits on defenders over the last 3 games. However, Tyrone Tracy is set to return from his injury, which certainly complicates matters. I expect Skattebo to hold onto the lead spot in this backfield, but Tracy is certainly going to have a role. The Eagles have been tough against the run but have allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to running backs this season.
I know the Giants have a good defensive line, but it’s hard to make a case for their defense outside of large-field tournaments. The Eagles aren’t a team that takes a lot of sacks or commits a lot of turnovers. I worry about the game script for kicker Jude McAtamney, as the Giants might not be able to settle for field goals if they are playing from behind.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
With Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton both out, there’s a lot of value on New York’s side of the ball. Wan’Dale Robinson, Beaux Collins, Jalin Hyatt, and Theo Johnson are all strong point-per-dollar options. When it comes to the Eagles, I have a difficult time not including Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts in all of my lineups. This isn’t a slate where I’m too interested in the kickers given the value plays we have at wide receiver and tight end, but I do like the Eagles’ defense as a tournament play. We haven’t had many Showdown slates where defenses have been worth their hefty price points, so the Eagles defense should come in with relatively low ownership.
Eagles vs. Giants DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 21.93 | $11,000 | 1.99 | $13,600 | 1.61 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 19.29 | $11,600 | 1.66 | $13,000 | 1.48 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | QB | 15.88 | $10,200 | 1.56 | $12,200 | 1.30 |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 14.59 | $9,800 | 1.49 | $10,000 | 1.46 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 12.96 | $9,600 | 1.35 | $9,600 | 1.35 |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB | 12.78 | $10,000 | 1.28 | $11,000 | 1.16 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | 12.31 | $7,200 | 1.71 | $8,400 | 1.47 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 9.77 | $6,400 | 1.53 | $8,000 | 1.22 |
| Theo Johnson | NYG | TE | 7.90 | $5,800 | 1.36 | $5,200 | 1.52 |
| Eagles | PHI | DST | 7.79 | $5,400 | 1.44 | $7,200 | 1.08 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | K | 7.57 | $5,000 | 1.51 | $6,800 | 1.11 |
| Jude McAtamney | NYG | K | 7.00 | $4,600 | 1.52 | $6,600 | 1.06 |
| Jalin Hyatt | NYG | WR | 5.38 | $3,200 | 1.68 | $2,200 | 2.45 |
| Giants | NYG | DST | 5.22 | $3,600 | 1.45 | $6,000 | 0.87 |
| Tyrone Tracy | NYG | RB | 5.08 | $7,000 | 0.73 | $5,800 | 0.88 |
| Beaux Collins | NYG | WR | 4.08 | $3,000 | 1.36 | $1,800 | 2.27 |
| Daniel Bellinger | NYG | TE | 3.83 | $2,800 | 1.37 | $4,200 | 0.91 |
| Jahan Dotson | PHI | WR | 3.38 | $3,400 | 0.99 | $4,800 | 0.70 |
| Lil’Jordan Humphrey | NYG | WR | 3.21 | $200 | 16.05 | $1,000 | 3.21 |
| Will Shipley | PHI | RB | 2.62 | $4,400 | 0.60 | $2,600 | 1.01 |
Eagles vs. Giants Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 5-9
Saquon Barkley more than 0.5 anytime touchdowns (1.44x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We didn’t perform well over the weekend, so let’s go with a simple Pick’em play on Thursday night. Let’s roll with Saquon Barkley to score against his former team. Through the first 5 games of the season, he has averaged 16.6 carries and 3.8 targets. He’s scored a touchdown in 4 of the first 5 games and is a good bet to see 20+ touches in a revenge game. The Eagles are 7.5-point favorites, so we can expect plenty of work for Barkley. It’s a great matchup too, as the Giants are 30th in EPA against the run and have already given up 5 rushing touchdowns.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus