The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Seahawks vs. Cardinals
For this Week 4 Thursday Night Football matchup on 9/25 featuring the Seahawks vs. Cardinals, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Happy Thursday! We are back with another Thursday Night Football game between the Seahawks and Cardinals. These are NFC West foes who are both off to nice starts this season. The Seahawks are 2-1 after beating the Saints and Steelers, while the Cardinals are also 2-1 with wins over the Panthers and Saints. Both of these teams nearly beat the Niners. This could be one of the most stacked divisions in the NFL, as all 4 teams have won at least 2 of their first 3 games of the season.
This game features a 1.5-point spread and a 42.5-point total. Let’s go!
Key Injuries
Elijah Arroyo – Questionable
James Conner – Out
Zay Jones – Questionable
Seattle Seahawks Preview
The Seahawks paid top dollar for Sam Darnold (3-year, $100 million), but they aren’t using him like a top quarterback. Through his first 3 games in Seattle, he has averaged 25 pass attempts and 221 passing yards. The Seahawks are 32nd in pass rate and 31st in pass rate over expectation. While this makes him an easy fade on full slates, it’s always risky fading a quarterback on a Showdown slate. Given the close spread and all of the injuries in Arizona’s secondary, Darnold is firmly in play at UTIL/AnyFLEX. His lack of rushing upside limits his appeal at the multiplier positions.
Seattle’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 83% route participation, 38% target share, 56% air yards share
- Cooper Kupp: 77% route participation, 17% target share, 16% air yards share
- Tory Horton: 57% route participation, 10% target share, 18% air yards share
- AJ Barner: 62% route participation, 7% target share, 5% air yards share
Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a bad runout last week against the Saints. He had 4 receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown early in the first half, but the game was well out of hand at that point. The Seahawks didn’t need to air it out much in the second half, so he only had one more reception the rest of the game. While this is a run-heavy offense, it’s hard to ignore JSN’s usage through the first 3 games. He boasts a 38% target share and a 56% air yards share. He’s one of the top MVP/CPT targets against Arizona’s shorthanded secondary.
Cooper Kupp has been quiet in his first 3 games with the Seahawks. He’s only seen 15 targets, and 9 of those came in Week 2 against the Steelers. The underlying usage metrics aren’t terrible, and he has run over half of his routes from the slot, so he’s worth a look as a low-owned tournament play. Fifth-round rookie Tory Horton has 18% of the team’s air yards and is facing a secondary that will be without their best cornerbacks. If Arizona sells out to stop JSN, Horton could be the main beneficiary. AJ Barner has run a route on 62% of dropbacks but hasn’t been involved much in the passing game. We have Elijah Arroyo projected close to Barner at a significantly lower price point.
Zach Charbonnet returned to practice early this week, so we can tentatively expect him to return to the lineup against the Cardinals. When Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker are both active, this has been close to a 50/50 split. Walker didn’t exactly win over the RB1 role with Charbonnet out last week against the Saints. While Walker scored 2 touchdowns, he could only muster up 38 yards on 16 carries. While it’s tough to know which of these two will be more productive, they have a solid matchup against the Cardinals, who are 22nd in PFF’s grades against the run and 26th in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season.
The Seahawks have had an average pass rush over expectation through the first 3 games, while the Cardinals have been one of the best in the NFL at protecting their quarterback. I’m not in love with the spot for Seattle’s defense. Jason Myers should be one of the most productive kickers in the league. He’s attempted at least 2 field goals in every game this season.
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Arizona Cardinals Preview
Kyler Murray has been one of the most difficult players to predict in fantasy football since he joined the league. However, he’s been oddly consistent in the first 3 games this season, scoring between 14 and 18 fantasy points in each. While the passing metrics leave much to be desired, he has at least 6 rush attempts and at least 30 rushing yards in every game this season. The Seahawks have been middling against the pass, so Murray is a strong option on this Showdown slate. Unlike Darnold, Murray’s rushing upside puts him in consideration for MVP/CPT.
Arizona’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Marvin Harrison: 92% route participation, 18% target share, 35% air yards share
- Michael Wilson: 76% route participation, 9% target share, 25% air yards share
- Greg Dortch: 22% route participation, 5% target share, 1% air yards share
- Trey McBride: 90% route participation, 25% target share, 26% air yards share
The usage metrics for Marvin Harrison this season have been tremendous. He’s running a route on almost every dropback, he has a nice target share (18%), and he leads the team in air yards. Unfortunately, he’s had some awful drops that have cost his team and those who have rostered him in DFS. The narrative would be a lot different without the drops, so I’m willing to go back to the Harrison well against the Seahawks. With most of the attention gravitating toward his expensive teammates, he could fly under the radar.
Trey McBride is allergic to touchdowns, but hopefully, he’ll bring his EpiPen with him to the game on Thursday night. His usage is almost unmatched at the tight end position. Through the first 3 games, he boasts a 25% target share and a 26% air yards share. The matchup is pristine, as the Seahawks have already given up 24 catches and 3 touchdowns to tight ends this season. Michael Wilson continues to see a few deep targets, while Greg Dortch has barely run any routes (22%). Both ancillary receivers would see a small boost if Zay Jones (concussion) doesn’t suit up.
James Conner fractured his foot last week and is going to miss the rest of the season. Trey Benson will serve as the clear RB1 for the Cardinals. He has averaged 6.0 yards per carry this season and has already seen 11 targets through the first 3 games. The Seahawks have been tough against the run this season, but they have ceded the 2nd most receptions (22) to running backs. Benson is a strong option in all formats. Emari Demercado is expected to serve as the RB2 here, but he’s not as cheap as I was hoping ($3,800 DK / $4,200 FD).
The Cardinals are at home, but they are missing a bunch of players in their secondary. To make matters worse, they have the 2nd-lowest pressure rate in the NFL this season. Kicker Chad Ryland is firmly in play given Arizona’s struggles in the redzone.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The double-kicker lineups are firmly in play on this Showdown slate. The last time I said this, it was the Giants and Chiefs. The kickers in that game combined to make 4 field goals, but Harrison Butker missed one field goal, and Graham Gano was injured pregame. I expect the Seahawks and Cardinals to move the ball in this game, but I do worry about their red-zone efficiency. As far as the multiplier position on FanDuel and DraftKings, I have my eye on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kyler Murray, Trey McBride, and Trey Benson. We should also keep an eye on inactives, as the absence of Elijah Arroyo and/or Zay Jones could open up some nice values.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | ARI | QB | 19.39 | $10,800 | 1.80 | $12,600 | 1.54 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 19.07 | $11,000 | 1.73 | $13,000 | 1.47 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | 16.16 | $10,000 | 1.62 | $12,000 | 1.35 |
| Trey McBride | ARI | TE | 16.10 | $9,800 | 1.64 | $10,800 | 1.49 |
| Trey Benson | ARI | RB | 15.03 | $8,800 | 1.71 | $9,200 | 1.63 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI | WR | 13.57 | $7,800 | 1.74 | $9,800 | 1.38 |
| Kenneth Walker | SEA | RB | 13.07 | $10,400 | 1.26 | $11,600 | 1.13 |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR | 10.37 | $7,000 | 1.48 | $7,400 | 1.40 |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | 9.87 | $5,400 | 1.83 | $6,800 | 1.45 |
| Jason Myers | SEA | K | 7.47 | $5,000 | 1.49 | $7,000 | 1.07 |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | WR | 7.34 | $3,400 | 2.16 | $5,000 | 1.47 |
| Cardinals | ARI | DST | 6.79 | $4,400 | 1.54 | $6,000 | 1.13 |
| Chad Ryland | ARI | K | 6.78 | $4,800 | 1.41 | $6,200 | 1.09 |
| Tory Horton | SEA | WR | 5.95 | $5,800 | 1.03 | $5,400 | 1.10 |
| Seahawks | SEA | DST | 5.89 | $4,000 | 1.47 | $7,200 | 0.82 |
| AJ Barner | SEA | TE | 5.75 | $2,800 | 2.05 | $4,400 | 1.31 |
| Emari Demercado | ARI | RB | 4.96 | $3,800 | 1.31 | $4,200 | 1.18 |
| Elijah Arroyo | SEA | TE | 4.82 | $800 | 6.03 | $2,600 | 1.85 |
| Greg Dortch | ARI | WR | 3.98 | $3,200 | 1.24 | $3,000 | 1.33 |
| Tip Reiman | ARI | TE | 1.73 | $2,000 | 0.87 | $1,600 | 1.08 |
| Elijah Higgins | ARI | TE | 1.56 | $1,600 | 0.98 | $3,200 | 0.49 |
| Jake Bobo | SEA | WR | 1.09 | $1,000 | 1.09 | $1,400 | 0.78 |
Seahawks vs. Cardinals Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 3-6
Trey McBride more than 65.5 receiving yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We’ve hit a cold stretch of pick’em plays in the last 3 primetime games, but we are back at it on Thursday night. Trey McBride has massive usage metrics this season. He’s run a route on 90% of dropbacks, he’s seen 25% of the team’s targets, he’s seen 26% of the team’s air yards, and he has been the first read 33% of the time. In 2 games against the Seahawks last season, he caught 7 passes for 70 yards and 12 passes for 130 yards. It looks like a tremendous spot on paper, as Seattle has allowed 24 receptions to opposing tight ends through the first 3 games of the season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus