The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Vikings vs. Chargers
For this Week 8 Thursday Night Football matchup on 10/23 featuring the Vikings vs. Chargers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Vikings vs. Chargers
We are back for Week 8’s edition of Thursday Night Football. The Vikings are currently in last place in the NFC North, but they are 3-3 on the season with a +20 point differential. If they can string together a few wins, they’ll be right back in playoff contention. The Chargers have yet to lose a division game (3-0), but they are only 4-3 overall with a -12 point differential. This is a big game for both teams, so we should expect a competitive battle on Thursday. The Chargers are 3.5-point favorites, and the game features a total of 44.5 points.
Key Injuries
Aaron Jones – Questionable
Hassan Haskins – Doubtful
Minnesota Vikings Preview
J.J. McCarthy is nearing a return to the lineup, but the Vikings have already announced Carson Wentz as the starter for this game. He’s been more than serviceable in DFS, averaging 18 fantasy points in his 4 starts this season. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in 2 games and for over 300 yards in 2 games. The Chargers have had a top 10 pass defense this season, but they are 30th in PFF’s pass rush grades. If you give Wentz time, he’s going to find his weapons downfield. He’s a strong play in all formats, but I do prefer using him at FLEX/UTIL rather than MVP/CPT.
Minnesota’s wideout usage (Weeks 4-7):
- Justin Jefferson: 96% route participation, 26% target share, 41% air yards share
- Jordan Addison: 84% route participation, 20% target share, 34% air yards share
- Jalen Nailor: 58% route participation, 10% target share, 11% air yards share
- T.J. Hockenson: 78% route participation, 16% target share, 7% air yards share
I only pulled the usage metrics from Weeks 4-7, as those are the games Jordan Addison has played in this season. In those games, Justin Jefferson has seen 26% of the team’s targets and 41% of the team’s air yards. He underwhelmed last week against the Eagles, but he was stuck in a tough cornerback matchup against Quinyon Mitchell. Addison is technically a WR2, but he has the usage that most WR1s would be happy with — 20% target share and a 34% air yards share. Both receivers are viable against the Chargers, although Los Angeles is 7th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Jalen Nailor isn’t as enticing with Addison back in the lineup, but he’s still on the field quite a bit and seeing a decent number of targets. At his cheap price point, he’s worth a look in tournaments. T.J. Hockenson only has 7% of the team’s air yards over the last 3 games, but he’s getting a decent number of targets. We are essentially to the point where he needs to score a touchdown to be relevant in DFS. It doesn’t help that the Chargers have allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Aaron Jones was designated to return from injured reserve, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s ready to see game action. We’ll have to monitor his status throughout the week. If active, this is a backfield that I want to avoid. If Jones is out again, Jordan Mason will draw another start. He has averaged a healthy 4.5 yards per carry this season and is facing the Chargers, who are 27th in EPA against the run. It’s not a great projected game script for a running back who isn’t involved in the passing game, but Mason will be a strong tournament play if Jones is out.
The Vikings have one of the highest pressure rates over expectation this season. Given the injuries to the Chargers’ offensive line, I certainly don’t mind looking to Minnesota’s defense in tournaments. Kicker Will Reichard has made at least 2 field goals in 5 of 6 games so far this season.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below by Dan Back, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an NFL Premium subscription!
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
The Chargers will still be without Rashawn Slater, but we’ll see if Joe Alt can suit up on Thursday. The offensive line injuries have really hurt the offense as a whole. Justin Herbert continues to get pressured at a high rate, and the team hasn’t had nearly as high a pass rate over expectation in the last 3 games. I worry about Minnesota’s pass rush in this game. It’s not the best matchup either, as the Vikings are 3rd in EPA against the pass and 5th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Herbert is viable given the nature of Showdown slates, but I prefer other options at MVP/CPT.
Los Angeles’ wideout usage (2025):
- Quentin Johnston: 87% route participation, 19% target share, 31% air yards share
- Ladd McConkey: 88% route participation, 21% target share, 25% air yards share
- Keenan Allen: 73% route participation, 23% target share, 27% air yards share
- Oronde Gadsden: 56% route participation, 13% target share, 16% air yards share
One of the most difficult decisions to make every week is what to do with this wide receiver room. Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen dominated targets, air yards, and touchdowns early in the season, but Ladd McConkey has come on strong in the last 3 games. During that stretch, he’s seen 31 targets and has caught 2 touchdowns. We’ve seen his slot rate tick up recently, which is where he was so successful in his rookie season. I’ll give him the slight edge on Thursday night, but it’s worth noting that the Vikings are 4th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
The Chargers had an unappealing timeshare at tight end earlier in the season, but that is no longer the case. Oronde Gadsden has established himself as the clear TE1 over the last 2 games, catching 14 of 17 targets for 232 yards and a touchdown. He feels a tad underpriced after he put up 32 fantasy points last week against the Colts. He draws the best matchup of the skill position players on LA, as the Vikings are 14th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Kimani Vidal has dominated the running back touches in the last 2 games. During that stretch, he’s played on 66% of the snaps and has 34 touches that he’s turned into 183 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. For the time being, he appears to be the RB1 in Los Angeles. Hassan Haskins is dealing with a hamstring injury and could be forced to miss some time. If that happens, Nyheim Hines or Jaret Patterson would likely get called up from the practice squad and serve as the RB2 in this game.
The Chargers have struggled to get pressure on the quarterback, but Carson Wentz has already thrown multiple interceptions in 2 games this season. A case can be made for this defense, especially since they are playing as home favorites. Kicker Cameron Dicker is firmly in play here.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is a rare Showdown slate where I don’t view one or two players as the optimal plays at the multiplier positions. Justin Jefferson is my favorite spend, but he has plenty of competition for targets in this offense. Both of the quarterbacks are good plays on paper, but there are certainly paths to them failing. Carson Wentz has struggled to protect the ball, while Justin Herbert is dealing with offensive line injuries. I prefer both at UTIL/FLEX. I’m not too interested in the defenses, although Minnesota can force a lot of pressure, and Los Angeles has struggled to keep Herbert upright this season. Both kickers are viable, which is not a strategy I use often in Showdown.
Vikings vs. Chargers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 18.92 | $10,400 | 1.82 | $13,000 | 1.46 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 17.26 | $11,800 | 1.46 | $13,400 | 1.29 |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | QB | 16.01 | $9,000 | 1.78 | $11,400 | 1.40 |
| Kimani Vidal | LAC | RB | 13.79 | $7,000 | 1.97 | $8,800 | 1.57 |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 13.17 | $7,600 | 1.73 | $7,800 | 1.69 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 12.64 | $7,800 | 1.62 | $10,200 | 1.24 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 11.33 | $7,400 | 1.53 | $8,400 | 1.35 |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 11.29 | $8,000 | 1.41 | $9,200 | 1.23 |
| Oronde Gadsden | LAC | TE | 11.10 | $5,800 | 1.91 | $8,000 | 1.39 |
| Jordan Mason | MIN | RB | 10.29 | $8,600 | 1.20 | $10,600 | 0.97 |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | RB | 9.73 | $6,600 | 1.47 | $8,200 | 1.19 |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 9.08 | $4,800 | 1.89 | $7,200 | 1.26 |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | 8.89 | $5,400 | 1.65 | $6,400 | 1.39 |
| Will Reichard | MIN | K | 8.75 | $5,000 | 1.75 | $6,600 | 1.33 |
| Chargers | LAC | DST | 6.57 | $4,400 | 1.49 | $6,200 | 1.06 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 5.91 | $4,000 | 1.48 | $6,800 | 0.87 |
| Jalen Nailor | MIN | WR | 4.82 | $3,600 | 1.34 | $4,600 | 1.05 |
| Jaret Patterson | LAC | RB | 4.14 | $200 | 20.70 | $1,000 | 4.14 |
| Tyler Conklin | LAC | TE | 2.20 | $600 | 3.67 | $2,400 | 0.92 |
| Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 2.15 | $2,000 | 1.08 | $3,000 | 0.72 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 1.80 | $2,400 | 0.75 | $2,600 | 0.69 |
| Will Dissly | LAC | TE | 1.48 | $1,600 | 0.93 | $2,200 | 0.67 |
| Tre Harris | LAC | WR | 1.44 | $3,000 | 0.48 | $3,200 | 0.45 |
| C.J. Ham | MIN | RB | 1.34 | $400 | 3.35 | $1,200 | 1.12 |
Vikings vs. Chargers Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 9-11
Ladd McConkey more than 5.5 Receptions (2.01x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We are on a little bit of a roll, but we still have some work to do to get back above .500 on the season. For Thursday, we are rolling with Ladd McConkey to get more than 5.5 receptions. Over the last 3 games, he has caught 21 of 31 targets for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns. The recent usage is encouraging, as is a matchup against the Vikings. They get as much pressure on quarterbacks as nearly any team in the league, so Justin Herbert is going to have to get the ball out of his hands quickly. Over the last 3 games, McConkey has run 66% of his routes from the slot with a 22% first-read rate. I expect him to get peppered with targets underneath in this game.
Use our Sleeper promo code RGBONUS for a $100 sign-up bonus.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus