The NFL DFS Grind Down: Wednesday Night Football - Patriots vs. Seahawks
For this Week 1 Wednesday Night Football matchup on 9/9 featuring the Patriots vs. Seahawks, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Patriots vs. Seahawks
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
My friends, welcome back! I don’t know about you, but I genuinely can’t believe that Week 1 is already here. Football season is here, the weather is cooling down, and the kids are back in school. It doesn’t get better than this.
This is one of the best Week 1 schedules that I can ever remember. We kick off the 2026 season with a Super Bowl rematch. The Patriots and Seahawks are set to square off in a rare Wednesday night game. This is great news for us football fans, as we still have the Thursday night, Sunday night, and Monday night games on the schedule.
Seattle enters the season as the reigning champion after a dominant 2025 campaign. They were 14-3 in the regular season and led the NFL in scoring defense on their way to a Super Bowl title. The Patriots have to feel great after making the Super Bowl in Mike Vrabel’s first season back in Foxborough. They didn’t sit pat in the offseason, as they made a blockbuster trade for A.J. Brown.
This game features a 3.5-point spread and a 44.5 total. Something tells me this game will be more competitive than when they met up in the Super Bowl (29-13).
Key Injuries (as of Tuesday, 3:30 PM ET)
▪️ TreVeyon Henderson (NE) — Out (ankle)
▪️ Christian Barmore (NE) — Questionable (knee)
▪️ Zach Charbonnet (SEA) — Out (torn ACL)
▪️ Ty Okada (SEA) — Questionable (hamstring)
▪️ AJ Barner (SEA) — Questionable (oblique)
▪️ Tory Horton (SEA) — Questionable (hamstring)
New England Patriots Preview
The Drake Maye era arrived earlier than expected. In his first full season as a starter, he was a serious MVP candidate. He took his team all the way to the Super Bowl before running into this stingy Seahawks’ defense. There’s a good chance he’ll be even better this season, as the team brought in a superstar receiver. Maye is always a good bet in DFS because he offers rushing upside alongside his efficient passing. This is not a strong matchup out of the gate, but fading a quarterback of his caliber on a Showdown slate is far too risky for my liking.
New England’s 2025 wideout usage:
🔹 A.J. Brown (Eagles): 90% route participation, 28% target share, 38% air yards share
🔹 Hunter Henry: 72% route participation, 17% target share, 15% air yards share
🔹 Romeo Doubs (Packers): 73% route participation, 18% target share, 27% air yards share
🔹 DeMario Douglas: 35% route participation, 9% target share, 10% air yards share
🔹 Mack Hollins: 59% route participation, 14% target share, 22% air yards share
The big story of New England’s offseason was the trade for A.J. Brown. Vrabel and Brown spent some time together in Tennessee, and the Patriots are hoping Brown can push them over the edge. It certainly cost a pretty penny, as New England sent a 1st-round pick and a 5th-round pick to get him. Brown steps in as the clear alpha in this receiving room following the departure of Stefon Diggs. The Seahawks allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers last season, but the Patriots will want to get Brown involved early. I could see ownership being a tad inflated here.
The Patriots also brought in Romeo Doubs, who flashed some upside during his time with the Patriots. He’s set to be the WR2 outside, while DeMario Douglas will continue to man the slot (81% slot rate last season). Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams will have roles in the offense. Hollins is a reliable veteran, while Williams flashed some downfield upside last season.
Hunter Henry ran a route on 72% of Maye’s dropbacks last season and will continue to be the top tight end in this offense. We shouldn’t put too much stock into matchup metrics from last season, but it’s worth noting that the Seahawks allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends. The matchup might set up a little better for Henry than for the receivers.
Even though TreVeyon Henderson could have a true RB1 type of season if given the workload, this is shaping up to be a split backfield. Rhamondre Stevenson is still a very capable back in his own right. Luckily, we don’t have to worry about a split backfield on Wednesday night. Henderson is dealing with an ankle injury and has been ruled out. Stevenson has been solid around the goal line throughout his career, and he’s a very good pass-catching back. Even in a tough matchup, he’s one of the top plays on the slate. Corey Kiner is expected to slide in as the RB2 and makes for a decent punt on DraftKings ($2,400).
The Patriots have a good defense on paper, although they didn’t get a ton of pressure on the quarterback last season (27% pressure rate and only 2.1 sacks per game). To make matters worse, they are playing on the road against an offense that takes care of the ball. Fluke plays can always lead to defensive touchdowns, but I’m not prioritizing the Patriots D/ST on this slate. Kicker Andy Borregales is interesting here. The Patriots have a good offense, but the Seahawks have a great red-zone defense.
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Seattle Seahawks Preview
Sam Darnold is a player who has been easy to root for over the years. He had to spend his first 5 NFL seasons with the Jets and Panthers. He didn’t see much action during his time with the Niners, but he finally got a chance to start with the Vikings. He had a career year and turned that into a big deal with the Seahawks. He didn’t look back and led Seattle to a Super Bowl win in his first year with the team.
Darnold will be without Klint Kubiak this season, as the latter left to become the head coach of the Raiders. We’ll see if Kubiak’s departure has any lasting impacts on the offense. However, Darnold offers a high floor in the opener against the Patriots, who struggled to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks last season.
Seattle’s 2025 wideout usage:
🔹 Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 92% route participation, 33% target share, 49% air yards share
🔹 AJ Barner: 66% route participation, 13% target share, 9% air yards share
🔹 Rashid Shaheed: 72% route participation, 16% target share, 24% air yards share
🔹 Cooper Kupp: 78% route participation, 15% target share, 16% air yards share
🔹 Tory Horton: 54% route participation, 10% target share, 18% air yards share
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was truly dominant last season. He caught 119 passes for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns. And he did it despite the Seahawks being in a lot of run-heavy game scripts. He had a commanding 49% air yards share and was close to an every-down receiver. The question isn’t whether he’s a strong play on this slate; it’s whether he’s a strong play at extremely high ownership. I’m tempted to be underweight on him at the multiplier positions.
Rashid Shaheed is an elite field stretcher, matching JSN’s 11.4 aDOT last season. Cooper Kupp isn’t the same receiver that he was when he won the Triple Crown, but he still has a solid role in this offense. He runs about half of his routes from the slot, which gives him a decent floor but a low ceiling. Tory Horton offers more upside than Kupp, but he’s dealing with a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable for the opener. Montorie Foster will see more snaps if Horton is unable to suit up.
AJ Barner ran a route on 66% of Darnold’s dropbacks last season and remains the TE1 in this offense. While he’s more likely to have a better game than Elijah Arroyo, he also comes at a higher price point. On a per-dollar basis, I prefer Arroyo as a salary saver.
Seattle’s backfield is the biggest question mark on the roster. Kenneth Walker III — the Super Bowl MVP — left in free agency for Kansas City. That wouldn’t have been a huge loss if Zach Charbonnet was healthy, but he tore his ACL in the playoffs and is out for the entire season. That leaves 1st-round pick Jadarian Price as the lead back in his very first NFL game. He didn’t play a single snap in the preseason, so everyone is excited to finally see him on the field. I’m hesitant to expect 20+ touches right out of the gate. George Holani and Emanuel Wilson will both see work in the opener. If you can predict this backfield on Wednesday night, you’ll be in great shape in your DFS contests.
Seattle’s defense doesn’t need an introduction. They led the NFL in points allowed per game and shut down the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They finished last season with a 35% pressure rate and a top-10 pass rush according to Pro Football Focus. I’m not prioritizing either defense on this slate, but I do prefer the Seahawks over the Patriots. Kicker Jason Myers is one of my favorite values on the slate. He’s an excellent kicker, the Seahawks can move the ball, and the Patriots have a good defense. I could see both teams settling for several field goals in this one.
CPT/MVP Picks
🏅 Rhamondre Stevenson – Elite role with Henderson out
🥈 Drake Maye – High floor and rushing upside
🥉 Jason Myers – Sneaky MVP/CPT in a game that could be decided by field goals
Lineup Construction & Ownership Angle
It will be interesting to see how ownership shakes out at MVP and CPT. After one of the best WR seasons that we’ve seen in a long time, Jaxon Smith-Njigba will likely garner the most ownership. However, quarterbacks are always popular, many will want to roster A.J. Brown in his first game with the Patriots, and the TreVeyon Henderson injury opens Rhamondre Stevenson up as a strong play. While I don’t love this roster construction, saving at the multiplier position will automatically give you a unique lineup.
This is a slate where I want to be overweight on the kickers and underweight on the defenses. I’m also planning to be underweight on Brown and Jadarian Price.
Patriots vs. Seahawks Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 0-0
Jason Myers more than 1.5 field goals made (1.60x) – Sleeper Fantasy
If you are new to this article, you should get used to the fact that I love kicker props. Myers made at least 2 field goals in 8 of the last 9 regular season games last season. More importantly, everything is lining up for him in the opener. The Seahawks are favored, the Patriots have a good defense (which could stall drives), and Seattle’s backfield has question marks. I expect Seattle to move the ball, but I could see them settling for a few field goals here.
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For a full stat preview of every game this week, visit the NFL First Look
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus