Hittin' The Nuts - Squirrelpatrol's NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Divisional Round
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than Squirrelpatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, Squirrelpatrol has accumulated 90+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2.
The NFL playoffs continue this Saturday with the Divisional Round, one of my favorite weekends in the NFL schedule. FanDuel has split things into two separate slates (one on Saturday, the other on Sunday) for their biggest contests, while DraftKings has included all four games into their biggest Classic slates.
Houston and Baltimore kick things off at 4:30 PM ET in Baltimore, where the Ravens are favored by 9.5 points in a game with a 43.5 total. The Saturday night game sees the Packers travel to San Francisco as 9.5-point underdogs in a game with a 50.5 total. The first game on Sunday is Tampa Bay in Detroit in a game with a 48.5 total, where the Lions are 6.5-point underdogs. The slate concludes with the Chiefs in Buffalo as 3.5-point underdogs in a game with a 45.5 total.
This is my favorite of the playoff weekends because we generally see a handful of the teams that are playing well, having just won their last game (to advance to this round), playing on the road against some of the best teams in football. Last year at this time, we had all just witnessed Daniel Jones and the Giants put up 31 points in a playoff win, while Dallas was looking good in the postseason also advancing with a win. It’s easy to forget how excellent some of the best NFL teams can be, and there is a good reason why Baltimore, San Francisco, and Detroit are fairly big favorites this weekend.
Let’s dig into the slate and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Squirrelpatrol’s ‘Hittin’ The Nuts’ for the Divisional Round
Why Are The Favored Quarterbacks So Cheap?
The first thing that jumped out at me on this slate is the quarterback pricing, specifically that Brock Purdy ($6500) and Jared Goff ($6300) are the 5th- and 6th-most expensive QBs on DraftKings out of only 8 starters. The 49ers and Lions have the two highest implied team totals, and they are both playing at home. Goff has the highest player prop for passing yards this weekend, with Purdy second. Purdy has the highest passing touchdowns prop, followed by Goff. It’s true that neither QB is a major threat with their legs, something that Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen do have, but that is more than priced into the salary structure. Purdy and Goff are too cheap, and I plan to take advantage.
As always on a smaller slate, after I select the QB for my roster, the rest of my lineup will depend heavily on the QB that I select, and both the 49ers and Lions have pass catchers that are well priced with high upside. To capture the potential for a game to blow far past its total, I’ll make sure to pair my QB with 4 or 5 RB/WR/TEs from the same game, and I’ll also likely pair my QB with at least 2 of his own pass catchers. This is particularly true for QBs like Purdy and Goff, who are more reliant on their passing game than their rushing ability to put up a high score.
Between Goff and Purdy, if I’m forced to choose one, I’m more likely to go with the Lions QB facing a Tampa Bay pass defense that allowed the 4th-most passing yards per game during the regular season, but the margin is razor-thin. After those two, the QB I’m most interested in is Lamar Jackson at home facing a Texans pass defense that allowed the 10th-most passing yards per game. Jackson ($7,900) is significantly more expensive on DraftKings than Goff and Purdy, but if he add significant points on the ground, then he could put up an outlier score that we need in tournaments.
A quick note on FanDuel, where we only get a half point per reception and no bonus for 300-yard passing games. I’m much more likely to use Lamar under the FanDuel scoring system, and the relative difference in salaries between Jackson and the Purdy/Goff price range is smaller as well.
Running Back Is Another Position We Can Find a Discount
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
