Hittin' The Nuts - Squirrelpatrol's Lineup Advice: Week 16 Saturday Slate
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than Squirrelpatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, Squirrelpatrol has accumulated 90+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2.
Week 16 gives us an early present with a Saturday NFL doubleheader to kick off the holiday weekend. The Bengals travel to Pittsburgh in the first game kicking off at 4:30 PM ET, with the Bengals favored by 2.5 points in a game with a 38.5 total. That will be followed by the Bills at the Chargers at 8:00 PM ET, where the Bills are favored by 13.5 points in a game with a 43.5 total. There are some large prize pools on both sites for this 2-game DFS classic slate, so let’s sort through the positions and figure out what to do with our lineups.
NFL DFS Picks: Lineup Advice for Squirrelpatrol’s ‘Hittin’ The Nuts’ (Week 16 Saturday Slate)
Josh Allen and 3 Backups
The title says it all here, where the quarterback position features one of the best in the league, Josh Allen, followed by three players who have just taken over the reins in recent weeks as their team’s starting quarterback got injured. Instead of matchups involving Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Kenny Pickett, we get Jake Browning, Easton Stick, and Mason Rudolph. Adding to the Bills focus on this slate, both Ja’Marr Chase and Keenan Allen are expected to miss this week, leaving Stefon Diggs as by far the most expensive WR on both sites.
The first decision point I make on a smaller slate is how I should spread out my QB exposure among both single-entry and larger-field contests. This week, I’m going to keep things simple. With the Bills carrying an implied team total (28.5) more than a touchdown higher than every other team, and little to spend up on at wide receiver, I’m going to be playing a lot of Josh Allen. I’d be surprised if I don’t end up over the current projected ownership of around 40%.
After Allen, the other three players don’t separate themselves much, with all of Browning, Stick, and Rudolph carrying similar projections and ownership. As temping as it is to go with Rudolph because of the Christmas narrative, I’ll likely aim to be under the field on the Steelers’ red-nosed quarterback and let someone else lead my sleigh on Saturday.
If I’m going over the field on a QB not named Josh Allen, I’d likely look to Easton Stick next. Stick showed some rushing ability in the preseason, and even though the Chargers were embarrassed by the Raiders in his first start, he did manage to put up 3 passing touchdowns. It’s at least possible to see a scenario where Stick gets a rushing touchdown, along with some points through the air as well, and puts up a score similar to Allen at a lower price. With limited spend-up options at the other positions, however, the savings are less likely to be useful to us than they are most weeks.
After I select the QB for my roster, the rest of my lineup will depend heavily on the QB that I select. While I’m likely to be heavily concentrated around Allen, no matter which QB I use in a lineup, I’ll make sure to pair him with 4 or 5 RB/WR/TEs from the same game. I’ll also likely pair my QB with at least 2 of his own pass catchers, with none of these QBs appearing likely to land on the winning lineup without stacking partners.
How Nuts Do We Get at Running Back?
Last week, I wrote for the Saturday 3-game slate that I was unlikely to get too different at the RB position, with the starters not priced too much more than their backups. In those 3 games, we still saw Trey Sermon lead the Colts in rushing yards after Zack Moss got injured, with Samaje Perine out-rushing Javonte Williams for the Broncos. This week, I’ll be much more inclined to mix in some of the backup RBs. With only 2 games on the slate, and one of them expected to be fairly low scoring, a touchdown or a heavy receiving game from one of the backups, not to mention an injury to a starter, could lead one of the backups to outscoring their starter teammate.
The most popular running back on the slate is likely to be James Cook. The Bills’ high team total is leading their players to top projections at most positions, and Cook has had 5 golden games in a row starting, as he has consistently made opposing defenses look like 11 pipers piping over that stretch. Cook is still losing some goal-line work to Latavius Murray, however, and Murray picked up a short touchdown last week against Dallas. Ty Johnson has also been getting increasing work for Buffalo, gaining a season-high 54 yards on 9 carries against the Cowboys.
With Buffalo almost a 2-touchdown favorite, I won’t hesitate to go over the field on any of the Bills’ RBs on either site. Of note, Johnson picked up a shoulder injury along with his 54 yards last Sunday, and he is currently listed as questionable. If he misses this game, I’d shift his ownership over to Murray, with the more concentrated backfield making him an interesting contrarian play.
If I’m looking outside the late game for an RB, I’m interested in the Steelers’ duo of runners, particularly Jaylen Warren. The Bengals have allowed the 5th-most rushing yards per game this season and the 2nd-most yards per carry. Warren has consistently put up points in the passing game this season, with nearly double the receptions of his teammate, Najee Harris, and more than double the receiving yards.
God Rest Ye Merry Wide Receivers
The wide receiver position is most noteworthy for the players missing this week, with Ja’Marr Chase out for the Bengals and Keenan Allen expected to miss this game for the Chargers. That leaves a major gap between Stefon Diggs and the next-most expensive WR, Tee Higgins, with an $1,100 difference in price on FanDuel and a $2,200 gap on DraftKings. Still, without much to spend up on, I’ll likely have Diggs on more than half of my lineups.
The Chargers have allowed the most receiving yards per game in the NFL this season, the 4th-most yards per reception, and the 6th-most receiving touchdowns. Diggs has at least 4 receptions in 13 of 14 games this season, and against the Chargers, there is a good chance he’ll be able to get above that mark and go a long way with the receptions. We have at least three wide receiver positions to fill on our classic-slate rosters, and with salary not much of an issue, there is a good chance Diggs ends up as one of the top-3 scorers at the position and lands on the winning lineup.
If I’m not using Diggs in a lineup, there is an excellent chance I’ll be using at least 2 of his teammates – either James Cook at RB, a fellow WR like Gabe Davis or Khalil Shakir, or one of the TEs – as I expect the Bills to put up a lot points against the Chargers.
Playing three wide receivers gives us some opportunity to get different, and while I’ll be looking to pair my QB with multiple receivers from his own team in most cases, I’ll also look for some ways to get different at the position. One option I’m looking to get over the field on is George Pickens. I talked up Pickens last Saturday in this space, and while he didn’t have a monster game, he did have his most targets in 7 weeks. Pickens is a receiver who could go overlooked considering his last touchdown came in Week 8, so I’ll look to buy low on the Steelers wide receiver. Pickens put up over 100 yards in 3 of the first 6 games this season, and we know the talent is there, so I’ll hope for some touchdown regression now that he is near his lowest price of the season.
Not Much Differentiation at Tight End
Each of the four starting tight ends project similarly, at just a couple of points more than a touchdown, and each of their backups project for a few points less than the starter. This leaves the position a bit of a mess, with not much differentiating the players. This uncertainty is reflected in the ownership projections as well, with no player currently projected for 33% or higher. I’ll likely look to take advantage of the relatively low projections and lack of differentiation among the tight ends by spreading my ownership out at the position and frequently pairing my tight end with whatever QB I’m using for my lineup.
If I aim to be over the field on anyone at the position, it will likely be Pat Freiermuth, who draws a matchup against the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, and Freiermuth torched the Bengals for 9 receptions and 120 receiving yards 4 weeks ago. It’s not encouraging that the Steelers TE has only put up 9 receptions and 63 yards combined in the 3 weeks since that game, but Freiermuth is priced down as the 4th-most expensive TE on FanDuel and the 2nd-most expensive on DraftKings. He gives us a substantial savings off of Dalton Kincaid without sacrificing much in projection.
D/ST
This is essentially the same write-up and thought process for all small slates, but I stand by it – smaller slates have a ton of variance, and defensive scoring in fantasy football has a ton of variance. Combine the two, and we essentially see a random number tacked on to the rest of our lineup. Any one of these D/ST units could end up as the highest scorer at the position with a kick return for a touchdown, but I expect ownership to concentrate among the favored teams and be particularly thin around the Chargers facing the Bills. I’ll spread out my defense selections among the four teams in play and won’t hesitate to play offensive players against that defense.
That’s my lineup advice for the Saturday slate – let’s hope one of us hits the nuts!
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