Hittin' The Nuts - SquirrelPatrol's NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Week 3
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than SquirrelPatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, SquirrelPatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2 of last season.
Week 3 is upon us with 12 games on DraftKings and 13 games (including the Sunday Night matchup between Kansas City and Atlanta) on FanDuel. We are already dealing with numerous injury situations in the NFL that could have an impact on the slate, and we have some appealing high total games this week that will be popular game stack targets. Let’s sort through the positions and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
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h2=. NFL DFS Picks: Lineup Advice for SquirrelPatrol’s ‘Hittin’ The Nuts’ (Week 3)
Expensive Running QBs and Cheap Passing QBs
The first thing that jumped out at me this week (beyond the injuries that are already piling up) is the difference in game environments this week. We are seeing passing numbers way down this season. As I noted in my Thursday Night article, this year, teams are averaging under 200 passing yards per game for the first time since 1992. Six of the twelve games on this slate have a point total of 41.5. The LAC/PIT (35.5), GB/TEN (38.0), NYG/CLE (38.5), CAR/LV (40.0), and DEN/TB (40.5) games could all be slower, rushing-oriented games, and those environments make the slate feel smaller than it is. I won’t scratch those games off my list completely – a value RB like D’Onta Foreman or Chuba Hubbard could end up on a portion of my lineups – but I won’t go out of my way to play pieces of those games more than the field.
The last game with a total of 41.5 points or less – MIA/SEA – is an interesting question mark for me. Geno Smith is coming in with a 12.67% pOWN% that is the highest of any QB as of Friday afternoon. I won’t be playing Geno at that rate on Sunday, and he is far down on the list of QBs that I’m interested in this Sunday. Looking at the QB list the player who jumped out at me is Derek Carr, leading a Saints offense that has looked incredible in the first two weeks of the season, scoring over 40 points both weeks. Carr and the Saints are in another good spot playing at home indoors against an Eagles defense that allowed the 2nd-most passing yards per game last season and has allowed the 3rd-most total yards per game this season.
If I’m spending up from Carr, there are two QBs priced within $1,000 of him on DraftKings that make for interesting targets. Brock Purdy will find his way onto some of my rosters at $6,000 despite the injuries that have hit some of the 49ers main offensive weapons. I’ll be pairing Brandon Aiyuk with Purdy and rounding out the roster with either Jordan Mason or some value 49ers pass catchers. I’m also interested in Dak Prescott at $6,600 playing at home against the Ravens in a game with a 47.5 total. Dak provides an affordable way of stacking the game with CeeDee Lamb and a Ravens pass catcher at discount from Lamar Jackson, although he lacks the rushing upside.
Speaking of Lamar, he is one of a handful of QBs with a higher price but rushing upside that can break a slate. I’ll make a point of getting up to Lamar Jackson in some of my larger-field rosters knowing that he’ll see single-digit pOWN%. Jalen Hurts is another QB I’ll spend up for with the same reasoning, as he is the more expensive side of the PHI/NO game but could be the QB we need if he gets a rushing touchdown. Finally, Kyler Murray is at home again facing Detroit after being a slate winner last week. The DET/ARI game has the highest total on the slate, and at $6,900, Murray has the right combination of price, rushing upside, and stacking partners to make him one of my most frequently rostered QBs this week.
One FanDuel-specific note: we have the Sunday Night Football matchup between Kansas City and Atlanta on the FanDuel main slate, and with the extra savings we can find on FanDuel this week with some very cheap RBs like Carson Steele and Cam Akers, I’m much more inclined to spend up at QB. Patrick Mahomes is the most expensive QB on the list at $8,700, but he’ll be playing indoors in a relatively high total game and will be one of my most frequently rostered QBs.
QB Prop Comp:
Derek Carr – Over/Under 233.5 passing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (-110), 26.25 Team Implied Point Total, $5,800, 7.27% pOWN%
Geno Smith – Over/Under 235.5 passing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (-105), 23.0 Team Implied Point Total, $5,600, 12.67% pOWN%
Looking at the prop market, we can see how closely Derek Carr and Geno Smith compare across passing categories. I’d lean into the higher implied point total and lower pOWN% of Carr and stack him with multiple pieces of the PHI/NO game.
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