Hittin' The Nuts - SquirrelPatrol's NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Week 6
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than SquirrelPatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, SquirrelPatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2 of last season.
Week 6 of the NFL season brings another set of bye weeks along with another London game, leaving us with 10 games on DraftKings and 11 (including Sunday Night Football) on FanDuel. We have 2 games with totals over 51 points, another 2 (or 3, on FanDuel) with totals around 47 points, and the other 6 games all have a total of 43 points or below. Injuries continue to make an impact, with players already labelled as game-time decisions as of Friday afternoon, so be sure to follow the RotoGrinders’ NFL starting lineups page for updated depth chart information as inactives hit for the latest details in case there are any surprises. Let’s sort through the positions and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
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NFL DFS Picks: Lineup Advice for SquirrelPatrol’s ‘Hittin’ The Nuts’ (Week 6)
Target the QBs in the High Total Games
My expert advice for the QB position this week is – wait for it – that we should prioritize rushing QBs in the higher total games. While this may seem obvious and there is some nuance, with such a clear differentiation between the higher-total and lower-total games, there isn’t enough differentiation in the salary structure at the QB position to get me to spend down at the QB position to a large degree.
Currently our QB with the highest pOWN% is Lamar Jackson, and I can’t argue. Jackson is averaging over 26 FD/DK points per game this season, the Ravens rank second in the NFL in points per game and lead the league in yards per game, and Baltimore has the highest implied point total on the slate. Coming off a 348 passing yard performance against the Bengals last week that included 4 passing TDs, Lamar Jackson seems like the safest place for points at the QB position this week. He is the most expensive QB on both FanDuel and DraftKings, however, and the $800 difference between Lamar and the other QBs is a noticeably big gap. If you can’t afford the Ravens QB on Sunday, there are some other options to consider.
For $500 less than Lamar Jackson in the same game, Jayden Daniels is projected for significantly less pOWN% than the Ravens QB but provides almost as much rushing upside. While Daniels and the Commanders are playing on the road, it’s not a long trip to Baltimore, and the Ravens defense has allowed the second-most yards per reception in the NFL this season. Washington is the only team in the NFL that has outscored the Ravens this season, and Daniels has 4 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns over his past 3 games. Even cheaper than Daniels, Jalen Hurts is another rushing QB to consider, playing at home against a Browns defense that has allowed more points per game than the Commanders this year. Hurts should have all of his play makers back on offense coming out of their bye week, with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith expected back from injury. The Eagles have a 26-point total that could get overlooked with their game carrying just a 42.5-point total.
On the cheaper end of the QB price list, we have 3 QBs making their NFL or season debuts this weekend: Spencer Rattler for the Saints, Drake Maye for the Patriots, and Aidan O’Connell for the Raiders. With each of their teams carrying an implied point total under 20 points, I’m not looking to get over the field on any of the debutantes. If I’m bargain hunting, I’ll have some interest in Will Levis playing at home against a Colts defense that has allowed the most yards per game in the NFL this season. The Titans have a surprisingly high 23-point total with the popular narrative being that they’ll run the ball with Tony Pollard having a big day. If Levis has a big day that comes at the expense of the highly-owned Pollard, it could flip the script in our DFS tournaments.
QB Prop Comp:
Lamar Jackson – Over/Under 225.5 passing yards, Over/Under 54.5 rushing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (-125), 29.25 Team Implied Point Total, $7,800, 15.81% pOWN%
Jayden Daniels – Over/Under 225.5 passing yards, Over/Under 49.5 rushing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (+125), 22.25 Team Implied Point Total, $7,300, 4.56% pOWN%
Jalen Hurts – Over/Under 227.5 passing yards, Over/Under 40.5 rushing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (+125), 26.0 Team Implied Point Total, $7,200, 9.86% pOWN%
Looking at the prop market, we can see that it’s an absolute crap shoot at the top of the QB salary structure. While I’ll be playing large amounts of all 3 of these QBs in my multi-entry set, an argument can be made there’s very little differentiation, so we should look to get over the field on Jayden Daniels at a third the pOWN% of Lamar Jackson.
RB Mirrors QB This Week
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