NFL DFS QB Report: Reviewing Week 7
NFL Quarterbacks rely on efficiency to make their mark in daily fantasy sports. Stats like per attempt efficiency, volume metrics, air yards, deep attempts, and rushing yards can truly point us towards some of the best options on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!. In this article, we’ll dive into the RotoGrinders Usage App from JoshADHD to locate a few key QB trends from last week. The insights will help us understand how QB performances of the past could impact our future projections and projected ownership.
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Week 7 NFL DFS QB Efficiency, Volume, and Air Yards Report
Russell Wilson
NFL Team: Seattle Seahawks
Pass Attempts: 50 in Week 7
Air Yards: 451 in Week 7
Air Conversion (PACR): 0.86 in Week 7
Rushing Yards: 84 in Week 7
You do not need me to tell you that Russell Wilson is hashtag good for our fantasy football lineups. The crazy thing to me is though—considering that he got 32.92 FanDuel points and 35.92 DraftKings points on Sunday night against Arizona—I think he actually left a little bit on the table still in that game considering how turnover prone he was.
Those three interceptions were the most interceptions he has had in a game since the 2017 season, and the last time he even had two interceptions in a game was all the way back on September 9, 2018! It is wild to look at his fantasy box score from that game and add another 4-6 points on to it.
Those 84 rushing yards? The most he has had in a game all season. The 451 air yards? Easily the most as well (by 50+ yards). Those 50 passing attempts? You guessed it…the most too.
Again, I don’t need to tell you that Russ is fantasy gold. I’m just here to relay to you the usage that we saw from him in Week 7. And based on that game against Arizona, Russ continues to push that ceiling of his just a little bit higher.
Patrick Mahomes
NFL Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Pass Attempts: 23 in Week 7
Air Yards: 164 in Week 7
Air Conversion (PACR): 1.22 in Week 7
Rushing Yards: 0 in Week 7
This is the part of the article where I stop you from even beginning to worry about those above numbers from Mahomes.
Contrary to Russ, in which we just discussed some season-highs, Mahomes saw a bunch of season-lows in that game against Denver. Everything from pass attempts, to zero rushing yards, to 200 yards passing, to just one touchdown pass. All of it was a season low output.
But this was just one of those games where everything breaks the wrong way for Mahomes from a fantasy perspective. Consider a few of these things from the first half:
- Mahomes drove the Chiefs down the field easily on their first possession, which led to a Clyde Edwards-Helaire 11-yard rushing touchdown (finally, amirite?).
- When they got the ball back on their next possession, Nick Keizer fumbled on their first play after catching a pass from Mahomes.
- Their third and fourth drives stalled out due to sacks on third down, which led to one field goal and one punt.
Then from there is where things really get out of hand. Following the aforementioned Kansas City punt, the Chiefs defense gets a pick-six on Drew Lock. The Broncos then drive down for a field goal. And what happens on the ensuing kickoff? Byron Pringle takes it to the house. So before you know it, the Chiefs are up 24-9, the half is almost over, and Mahomes has barely had to do anything. Oh, and did I mention the weather was really crappy too?
All of this to say: don’t worry about Mahomes. Yes, the box score looks terrible, but it was just one of those days. I believe a Week 8 matchup against the Jets is what the cool kids might call a “get-right spot” for Mahomes.
Cam Newton
NFL Team: New England Patriots
Pass Attempts: 15 in Week 7
Air Yards: 169 in Week 7
Air Conversion (PACR): 0.58 in Week 7
Rushing Yards: 19 in Week 7
Speaking of get-right spots, Cam and the Patriots offense could be looking at one here going up against a bad Buffalo defense. Heading into Week 7 against the Jets, the Bills ranked 29th in Overall Defense DVOA (28th against the pass; 24th against the rush).
We will never know if the COVID disruption leading up to the game was directly responsible for the performance that this offense (and defense, for that matter) displayed against the Niners, but boy were they bad. And as you can see from some those stats listed above, Cam was certainly a main culprit. He was way off on throws and couldn’t get anything going on the ground. It got to the point where he was ultimately pulled for Jarrett Stidham, mainly because the game was so far out of hand at that point.
However, if we are looking for silver linings, they just faced two really good defenses (Denver and San Francisco). And as I noted up above, Buffalo has certainly not been that this season (sorry, I don’t count the fact that they gave up 10 points to the Jets on Sunday).
Right about this point in the season is historically when Belichick’s Patriots start rounding into form, and it just so happens they get to face the team that is leading the AFC East with a 5-2 record. I expect the offense to be clicking a little better than it was on Sunday, and Cam is one of the cheapest quarterbacks on the slate on DraftKings ($5,700) for Week 8.
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