Week 4 NFL DFS QB Projections: DraftKings Values & Sleepers
Week 3 was the highest-scoring weekend of the season thus far. Chargers-Vikings lived up to the weeklong fantasy hype, while the high-flying Dolphins hung 70 on those poor, poor Broncos. The Bills, Texans, Chiefs, Browns, and Cardinals (???) all enjoyed impressive Sunday afternoons from an offensive standpoint, as well.
An AFC East clash between the Dolphins and Bills headlines the upcoming Week 4 slate with a 53.5 over/under as of Thursday morning. Raiders-Chargers should also draw some attention as a potential shootout, while the Toilet Bowl between the Broncos and Bears features a surprisingly high 46 total of its own.
We’ve got another 12-game NFL DFS slate on tap for Sunday. Our RotoGrinders premium DraftKings projections are already live, so you can get an early start on your weekly research.
Who are the best DraftKings QB plays heading into Week 4?
Week 4 DraftKings Projections — Quarterback
Jalen Hurts ($8,000, 24.24 projected FPTs)
The Eagles cruised to an easy win on Monday night over the Bucs to improve to 3-0 on the year. That’s not a huge surprise considering Philly was a Super Bowl participant a year ago, and we’ve seen Jalen Hurts pick up right where he left off. His numbers through the air have been a bit sluggish (640 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs), but he’s already racked up 3 rushing scores after plunging into the end zone 13 times in 2022.
The Birds will return home to host the Commanders on Sunday. This Washington defense ranks just 19th in total DVOA through 3 weeks, including 21st against the pass. Russell Wilson – in the year 2023 – threw for over 300 yards with 3 scores against this group a couple of weeks ago. Last Sunday, Washington yielded 37 points at home to Buffalo, including a rushing TD to Josh Allen.
Hurts’ TD equity is the driving force in his projection on a weekly basis. This offense has had no trouble moving the ball, especially since D’Andre Swift seemingly took over as the RB1 in Week 2. While Swift has been impressive, it’s still Hurts getting the goal-line opportunities here in short-yardage situations. He led all QBs by a huge margin with 44 red zone rushing attempts last season.
Washington has some big names on defense, yet the Eagles’ 26 implied team total is among the highest of the weekend. I think there’s enough QB value on DraftKings this week to get away with paying down at the position, but Hurts’ high-floor/high-ceiling combination makes him a top target on a weekly basis. Hurts is one of the few QBs I don’t mind playing naked in tournaments, but stacking him with AJ Brown ($7,700) is appealing if you have the funds, of course.
Josh Allen ($8,200, 22.8 projected FPTs)
Patrick Mahomes is playing in the Sunday Night extravaganza this week, so Josh Allen is your most expensive quarterback at $8,200 at home against Miami. This is the game with the highest total on the board, which isn’t a huge surprise considering these teams combined to put 107 points on the board last Sunday.
Everyone’s on the Dolphins hype train these days, but the Bills are favored by a field goal at home in this one. While Buffalo’s defense has been stout, we can’t say the same of Miami’s. The Fins come in ranked 21st in the league in DVOA, including a dismal 26th vs. the run. They’ve been more respectable (12th) through the air.
Still, I slightly prefer Allen to Hurts if I’m paying up for a QB in GPPs, particularly single-entry contests. Allen’s already thrown 4 picks this season, but he’s also thrown 5 touchdown passes and rushed for another. He doesn’t have Hurts’ reputation as a rushing QB, but he did find the end zone 7 times with his legs a season ago.
The Bills let Allen air it out a whopping 63 times in their first meeting with Miami last season, while he racked up 4 TD passes in the late-season rematch. We’re currently projecting the Josh Allen / Stefon Diggs combo to be the most popular 2-man stack this week on DK, so I don’t mind mixing in one of the Bills’ cheap tight ends – Dawson Knox or Dalton Kincaid – to get a little different.
Justin Herbert ($7,800, 22.04 projected FPTs
Justin Herbert was the QB1 in fantasy last week thanks to a 407-yard, 3-TD effort in the Chargers’ wild road win over the Vikings. The victory was bittersweet, however, as Mike Williams went down with a season-ending ACL injury. The Bolts do have capable replacements in Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, however, while Austin Ekeler appears to be on track to return from his ankle injury on Sunday at home against the visiting Raiders.
This game has the second-highest total of Week 4, and LA is currently listed as a 5.5-point favorite with a 27 implied team total. This Las Vegas defense ranked near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories last year, and they’re right back there through 3 weeks this term. The Raiders are 28th in total DVOA, including 29th vs. the pass.
Keenan Allen has been a target vacuum for Herbert over the past couple of games, though Ekeler’s impending return will bring some diversity to this attack. The Chargers got absolutely nothing out of Joshua Kelley with Ekeler sidelined. Allen (12.7%) is still projected to be popular on DK, while I’d expect Palmer ($4,000) to be one of the trendy cheapies, as well.
Herbert is only at 3.77% pOWN on DraftKings as of this writing, which is a little surprising considering the expected game environment and the popularity of his targets.
Justin Fields ($6,600, 19.51 projected FPTs)
If not for the Jets, we’d probably be talking a lot more about the Bears as the league’s worst offense to this point. Chicago has topped out at just 20 points through 3 weeks, while they’ve lost each of their games by double digits. That they managed to muster 10 points last week in Kansas City even felt a little miraculous.
To be fair, matchups with the Packers, Bucs, and Chiefs aren’t easy, per se. Tampa Bay (6th) and Green Bay (12th) have been respectable in total DVOA, while the Bears were never beating the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Broncos, meanwhile, are currently dead-last in total DVOA. Last week’s demolition in Miami will naturally skew that number, but they also surrendered 35 points and nearly 400 yards of offense to a mediocre-at-best Commanders bunch in Week 2.
We’ve also seen Justin Fields fall all the way to just $6,600 amid the Bears’ abysmal start. His lack of success thus far has been frustrating, but it’s likely just a matter of time until he gets it going. His 24 rushing attempts so far this season are still tied for the third-most in the league among QBs. After racking up about 9.3 rushing attempts per game last year, he’s averaging 8 so far in ’23.
We’ll see if Fields starts to pick up some steam as a tournament play as Sunday draws nearer, but as of now, he’s pulling just 2.7% pOWN on DraftKings. Given the discount and the matchup, I’m highly interested. DJ Moore ($5,600) and Cole Kmet ($4,000) make for reasonably-priced stacking companions, as well.
Top DFS Sleepers
Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,300, 16.25 projected FPTs)
I mentioned there’s plenty of value at QB this week, and it starts with Jimmy Garoppolo. It’s worth noting his status is in question as he’s still in concussion protocol as of this writing, but here’s hoping he’ll be cleared in time to suit up on Sunday. As mentioned, the Raiders are road underdogs here in a high-total game at the Chargers.
Jimmy G. put up a strong fantasy showing in last week’s setback to the Steelers, topping 300 yards with a couple of TDs on a season-high 44 attempts. The Raiders have thrown the ball on more than 60% of their plays to this point, thanks in large part to a sluggish start from Josh Jacobs and the running game. Plus, throwing the ball isn’t a bad idea in the first place if you have Davante Adams on your roster.
Adams ($8,000) put up monster numbers last week, and he’ll be a chalky pay-up target at WR against a Chargers defense ranked 29th in the league in tDVOA thus far. Jakobi Meyers ($5,500) is even projecting for double-digit ownership. DItto for Jacobs, who’s down to $7,100. The one cog in the Vegas offense going completely overlooked happens to be the quarterback. Garoppolo projects for sub-2% ownership. If Adams and Meyers are going to have big weeks, shouldn’t Jimmy be putting up numbers, too?
If he plays, there’s a good chance I’ll have more exposure to Garoppolo than any other QB this week in tournaments.
Kenny Pickett ($5,100, 17.15 projected FPTs)
The cheap QB picking up a bit more steam than Jimmy this week is Kenny Pickett, though he’s only around 4% pOWN on DK. Pickett is $200 cheaper than Garoppolo, not dealing with an injury, and he gets a favorable matchup on the road in Houston. The Steelers are 3-point road favorites with a 22.25 implied team total.
After a couple of rough weeks, we saw Pickett finally show signs of life on Sunday night in Vegas. It wasn’t perfect, but he still averaged better than 8 yards per throw on his way to a couple of TD passes. A big play from Calvin Austin juiced Pickett’s numbers a bit, but we also saw a few impressive connections with George Pickens.
One interesting note here is that the Texans’ defense has fared pretty well through the first few weeks. They’re up to 8th in total DVOA, including 7th vs. the pass. Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence put up lackluster stat lines against this group, though Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew combined for 3 total TDs against them in Week 2.
Houston should be a little better on that side of the ball than they were a season ago, though it’s hard to imagine them actually finishing the year as a top-10 defense. I’m willing to bank on the current numbers being an early-season, small-sample blip, which makes Pickett stand out as another cheap QB worth targeting in GPPs.
Like the Raiders, the Steelers have struggled mightily in terms of establishing the ground game. They’ve thrown the ball on nearly two-thirds of their offensive snaps through 3 weeks, and it won’t take much for Pickett to pay off that $5,100 price tag.