Week 7 NFL DFS QB Projections: DraftKings Values & Sleepers
After having just two teams on bye in Week 6, we’ve got a whopping 6 teams kicking up their feet and watching Week 7 on RedZone with the rest of us. As a result, we’ve got a relatively modest 10-game main NFL DFS slate on tap for Sunday afternoon. There are some weather concerns – per Kevin Roth’s latest weather report – with several East Coast games dealing with potentially windy conditions. Commanders-Giants looks like the game that will be affected most by the breezy weather, though Patriots-Bills and Lions-Ravens are also dealing with some wind.
Needless to say, windy weather can put a damper on the passing game. With only 10 games on the board, it’ll be interesting to see whether QB ownership winds up congregating around the passers in the dome games or in the contests with milder expected conditions.
Stacking is of paramount importance when it comes to building competitive DFS lineups, and most stacks start with a quarterback. Which QBs should we be eyeing on DraftKings as Week 7 approaches?
Week 7 DraftKings Projections — Quarterback
Josh Allen ($8,200) – 21.88 projected FPTs
After a weird Week 6 that was lacking high-end QBs, the studs are back in Week 7. Josh Allen is currently projected to be the most popular QB target on DraftKings with about 11% pOWN in large-field tournaments. The Bills will hit the road to take on those struggling Patriots in one of the dreaded wind games.
That maligned New England defense bounced back a bit last week in a close loss against the hapless Raiders, but this has still been a very disappointing group so far this season. We saw the Pats yield consecutive 30-plus-point outings to the Cowboys and Saints in Weeks 4 and 5, and they’ve been particularly porous through the air. New England ranks 23rd in DVOA against the pass, and you won’t find many more daunting matchups than this week’s against the high-flying Buffalo offense.
The Bills are favored by nearly 9 points on the road in this one, with a 25-point implied team total. We can attribute the wide spread in some capacity to what has been an utterly pathetic Patriots offense, but Vegas is still expecting Allen and the Bills to put points on the board.
I do think there’s a chance Allen’s projected ownership will dip as more and more people become aware of the wind factor. If it doesn’t, though, I will be taking an under-the-field approach to Bills stacks. Pairing Allen with Stefon Diggs always feels warm and fuzzy, but those 2 guys alone will cost you $17,100 of your $50,000 salary cap. There seems to be enough value at the running back position to make it work, but that’ll also be a popular construction.
Geno Smith ($6,000) – 18.54 projected FPTs
It look the masses quite a while to come around to the idea of Geno Smith being a legitimate starting-level QB last season, but the secret’s out by now. If anything, Pete Carroll seems to trust Geno more than he ever trusted Russell Wilson. After routinely finishing as one of the most run-heavy offenses in football during Wilson’s decade-long run in the PNW, the Seabirds are now among the more pass-happy offenses in the league. Seattle finished 13th in pass play percentage in 2022, and they’re 12th in the same category this year.
The Seahawks will return home to host the Cardinals this week. Roth notes this game has some potential for some of those classic Seattle showers, but it’s not expected to be particularly heavy rain. The on-paper matchup is a glorious one, as Arizona ranks a dismal 31st in total DVOA so far this season. They’re 31st against the pass and 29th against the run.
That should be music to Geno’s ears, and it’s not a huge surprise to see him projecting for some ownership at just $6,000 on DraftKings. Seattle’s 26-point total is a bit higher than Buffalo’s, and you can stack Smith with DK Metcalf ($6,800), Tyler Lockett ($6,000), and/or Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($3,900) much more affordably.
I mentioned that this Cardinals’ defense isn’t exactly stopping the run, so it’s a potential smash spot for Kenneth Walker ($7,000), as well. This is the rare spot in which the entire offense is projecting to be fairly chalky, so taking some stands in tournaments may be necessary. I’m happy to include Walker in Geno stacks if that proves to be a more contrarian way to stack this trendy offense.
Lamar Jackson ($7,600) – 21.69 projected FPTs
The weather and lack of dome games on the schedule could lead to a low-scoring week. Browns-Colts is a potential slugfest with one of the lowest totals on the slate (39.5) despite the indoor setting, while the Steelers will face the Rams in that semi-dome in LA. Every other main slate game will be played without a luxurious roof overhead.
When in doubt, play the QB with the most rushing upside on the board. Jalen Hurts is playing in the Sunday night game, so Lamar Jackson, come on down! Jackson leads all QBs in rushing yards this season (327), while he’s 3 short of Hurts for the league lead in attempts, with 60. We’ve also seen Lamar find the end zone 4 times this year with his legs, though all 4 scores came over a 2-game span in Weeks 3 and 4.
The Ravens’ clash this week at home against the Lions is another potentially windy affair, which, if anything, may actually add to Jackson’s appeal as a DFS play. If the aerial attack stalls, we could easily see Jackson try to impact the game even more on the ground.
The matchup is far from ideal against a Lions defense that has dramatically improved from 2022 to 2023, but we’re also getting Lamar at a solid discount from Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert all at $8,000 or higher.
Top DFS Sleepers for Week 7
Baker Mayfield ($5,300) – 16.94 projected FPTs
Last week, Baker Mayfield got a firsthand look at that aforementioned Lions defense. Despite the return of Mike Evans, the Bucs’ offense mustered just 6 points and 251 total yards in a 2-touchdown defeat at home.
Fortunately, the Bucs aren’t playing the Lions again this week. They’ll stay at home and welcome the Falcons to town. Tampa Bay is favored by a little less than a field goal against an Atlanta defense that comes into this one ranked 24th in tDVOA. The Falcons have done an admirable job of stopping the run (9th), but they’ve been gouged through the air (29th). This sounds like about as good of a get-right spot as you can find for Baker.
Tampa Bay has been one of the more run-heavy units in the league this season, but the matchup calls for a more air-intensive gameplan. Most think of Mayfield as a massive bust, but he does quietly have more than twice as many TD passes as INTs in the early-going. He’s still more of a dink-and-dunk guy than someone willing to air it out downfield on every play, but it’s not a coincidence that he looks a little better so far this season. Evans and Chris Godwin are 2 of the better pass-catchers he’s ever had at his disposal since turning pro.
Plunging for a cheap QB isn’t the sexiest way to build, but it does open things up. Evans ($7,100) and Godwin ($6,900) will cost you, but Mayfield is so cheap ($5,300) that you can afford to pay up for other studs if you’re so inclined. You can stack Baker/Evans/Godwin and still afford one of the high-end tight ends. Super-stacking the Bucs with the reasonably-priced Rachaad White ($5,100) is a viable GPP approach, as well.
Russell Wilson ($5,400) – 16.57 projected FPTs
If Baker doesn’t tickle your fancy, may I interest you in Russell Wilson for just $100 more? No? Ah, well.
If you’re still reading this, there is actual merit to looking Wilson’s way in Week 7. While his tenure in Denver has been largely disastrous thus far, Russ is quietly putting together a decent statistical season in year No. 2. He’s already thrown for more than 1,300 yards with 12 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions through 6 games. Last Thursday’s road setback in Kansas City was the first time all season we’ve seen Russ finish with less than 15 DK points.
On Sunday, the Broncos will return home to host the Packers. This game has the third-highest total of the week (45), with Green Bay coming in as a slight 1.5-point road favorite. While Denver has been the stone-worst defense in football this season, it’s not like the Packers have been elite. Green Bay is just 21st in total DVOA. As was the case last year, they’ve been much worse against the run than the pass.
With Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin seemingly splitting backfield work, we can’t rely on either RB as anything more than a GPP dart throw. The Broncos are ‘dogs here, though, so perhaps they’ll have to rely a little more heavily on Russ to get them to where they want to go. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are both south of $6,000, while you can hold your breath and punt with Marvin Mims ($3,600) and hope for the best in large-field contests.
For the dollar, Wilson offers a clear upside. The cheap Denver stack gives you access to many of the slate’s most tantalizing expensive one-offs, as well.