Week 9 NFL DFS QB Projections: DraftKings Values & Sleepers
The main slate in Week 9 features just 10 games after last week’s 13-game bonanza. 4 more teams – Denver, Detroit, San Francisco, and Jacksonville – are on bye. We’ve also got another European clash on the schedule, with the Dolphins slated to face the Chiefs in Frankfurt early on Sunday. How Germany lucked into the potential game of the year is anyone’s guess, but good for them!
That obviously takes Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa out of the mix for Sunday, which leaves us with a smaller-than-usual pool of options at quarterback. We still have Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson at the high end up over $8,000, but there’s a huge gulf between them and the next-most-expensive QB, Dak Prescott ($6,500). Based on the early projected ownership, it looks like most of the field will choose to pay up at the position.
Here, you’ll find a breakdown of everything you need to know about the QB position on DraftKings ahead of Week 9.
Week 9 DraftKings Projections — Quarterback
Lamar Jackson ($8,200) – 23.38 projected FPTs
On the heels of his slate-breaking performance in Week 7, Lamar Jackson went out and put up a dud in an even better matchup in Week 8. Despite going into the dome to face one of the league’s worst defenses, Lamar finished with just 157 yards passing and 17 yards on the ground while accounting for a single TD pass. Baltimore still won the game, as they were buoyed by a random 2-touchdown explosion from Gus Edwards.
The Ravens find themselves in another solid spot against a different NFC West foe this week. The Seahawks will be in town, and Baltimore is a 5.5-point favorite here. Seattle’s defense is improved from where it was last season, as they’re up to 15th in total DVOA. They’ve been much more stingy vs. the run (8th) than against the pass (18th), however.
Jackson’s range of outcomes has been surprisingly wide so far this season, but this game does have one of the highest over/unders of the week (44.5). With the Ravens playing in a new offensive system, Jackson hasn’t been forced to use his legs nearly as often. He’s only topped 50 rushing yards 3 times with 1 100-yard game on his ledger. 4 of his 5 rushing touchdowns came over the course of a 2-game span earlier in the year, as well.
Pairing Lamar with Mark Andrews ($6,800) is obviously the most alluring way to stack the Ravens, but Zay Flowers ($5,700) remains affordable after a stinker of his own last week.
Jalen Hurts ($8,000) – 23.45 projected FPTs
With Dolphins-Chiefs going down across the pond, the game of the week stateside will unquestionably be the Eagles’ clash with the Cowboys in Sunday’s late window. These may well be the 2 best teams in the NFC, and they’ll do battle for the first time this season in Philly. The 7-1 Eagles are favored by just 3 points at home over their 5-2 division rivals.
Jalen Hurts is reportedly a little banged up, but he looked no worse for the wear in a shootout win over the Commanders in Week 8. Philly’s MVP candidate threw for 319 yards on his way to a season-high 4 touchdown passes, while he failed to throw an interception for the first time since Week 4. This Dallas defense is considerably more impressive than the unit Washington has been trotting out there, however, as they enter this game ranked third in the NFL in total DVOA.
He found plenty of success through the air, so the Eagles didn’t need Hurts to affect the game much on the ground. He finished with season-lows in both rushes (4) and yards (6) and didn’t score a rushing TD for just the third time all year.
Despite the matchup against this ferocious defense, Hurts and the Birds still have a decent enough 24.75 implied team total in this game. He’s been considerably more consistent on a per-game basis than Jackson has, and we’re projecting Hurts to be the most popular QB in DK GPPs at around 17% pOWN.
Dak Prescott ($6,500) – 18.74% pOWN
On the other side of that game, we have Dak Prescott, who’s fresh off of what was easily his best game of the season. Like Hurts, Dak threw for more than 300 yards and 4 TDs as the Cowboys laid waste to those poor, poor Rams. Prescott has now posted back-to-back stellar outings, which is a welcome sign after his relatively underwhelming start to the year.
Even in a matchup of two elite defenses, Cowboys-Eagles has the highest over/under on the main slate at 46 points. Philly owns the league’s top-ranked run defense by DVOA, though they’re just 23rd against the pass. Based on that, Dallas may need to rely heavily on Prescott and his receivers if they’re going to pull the upset on the road.
Dak comes at a considerable discount from Jackson and Hurts, but that’s presumably because of the absence of a rushing component to his game. Prescott did rush for a TD a couple of weeks ago against the Chargers, but that was just his second game of the year with more than 6 carries.
CeeDee Lamb ($8,200) has started to get things going, while Jake Ferguson ($4,000) has shown occasional upside as a value tight end. We’ve also seen Brandin Cooks ($4,400) begin to find his footing in his first year with the team over the past couple of games. I see the merit to stacking the Cowboys around Prescott, but I’ll likely look to go elsewhere in GPPs if this team is going to be chalky. Dallas feels like a chase after that big outing last week.
Top DFS Sleepers for Week 9
Baker Mayfield ($5,200) – 16.46 projected FPTs
The value QB du jour may well be Baker Mayfield once again. Tampa Bay’s new signal-caller has been up and down – as is often the case with Baker – but we have seen the occasional big outing. He threw for a couple of TDs in last week’s close loss to Buffalo, and for the season he’s still thrown for more than twice as many touchdowns (10) as interceptions (4).
Mayfield’s weaponry is easily the best he’s ever had in his career. Chris Godwin found paydirt for the first time last week, while Mike Evans has found the end zone in 5 of the season’s first 7 games. This week, Mayfield and friends will face the Texans in Houston, which is a favorable on-paper matchup.
They’re going into the dome, and they’ll face a Texans defense ranked 20th in tDVOA. They’re 24th against the pass. Godwin and Evans are both north of $7,000 on DK, but Mayfield’s salary in the $5,000 range makes the double stack affordable enough.
Per our updated projections, Baker is tied with new Raiders starter Aidan O’Connell as the best point-per-dollar value at QB this week. Tampa Bay only has an 18.5 implied team total, but it won’t take an explosion for Mayfield to smash this salary.
Bryce Young ($5,100) – 15.71 projected FPTs
Bryce Young hasn’t had an easy go of it over the course of his first few months in the NFL, but not all rookie QBs are stars right away. The Panthers have already changed their play-caller, and they got their first win of the season last week over Houston. This week, Carolina will welcome the Colts to town.
Indianapolis’ defense is mediocre at best, as they’re 20th or worse in tDVOA, rDVOA, and pDVOA. Even if his numbers haven’t been amazing, the Panthers haven’t been bashful about letting the former No. 1 overall pick take to the air. He’s thrown at least 31 passes in each game so far, and his average of 7.6 yards per throw last week was his best of the year.
Best of all, we know where the targets are going. Adam Thielen has now attracted double-digit targets in 4 of the last 5 games, while he’s scored a touchdown in 4 of the last 6. Thielen is still attracting ownership despite his salary having risen exponentially as the season has progressed, and he’s projected to be chalky again with nearly 20% pOWN on DraftKings.
If we’re playing Thielen, it makes sense to stack him with his passer at what should be a fraction of the ownership. No other pass catcher is over $4,000, and we’ve also got a cheap Chuba Hubbard ($5,000) now getting the lion’s share of the carries in the backfield.
Even stacking Young with just Thielen leaves you with more than enough cash to pay up for some of the good stuff at running back and wide receiver.