NFL DFS QB Report: Reviewing Week 10
NFL quarterbacks rely on efficiency to make their mark in daily fantasy sports. Stats like per attempt efficiency, volume metrics, air yards, deep attempts, and rushing yards can truly point us towards some of the best options on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. In this article, we’ll dive into the RotoGrinders Usage App from JoshADHD to locate a few key QB trends from last week. The insights will help us understand how QB performances of the past could impact our future projections and projected ownership.
- Build DFS Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
- NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA
Week 10 NFL DFS QB Efficiency, Volume, and Air Yards Report
Ben Roethlisberger
NFL Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pass Attempts: 46 in Week 10
Air Yards: 431 in Week 10
Air Conversion (PACR): 0.77 in Week 10
Despite essentially being away from his team the entire week leading up to this game for COVID-contact-tracing reasons, Big Ben and the Steelers showed no hesitancy in slinging the ball all over the field against the Bengals.
The Steelers seem to have come to the realization of late that they are much better suited to just throw the ball as much as possible. If you look at the season as a whole, they have passed on roughly 59% of their plays. If you look at the last three weeks though, that number shoots up to almost 70%.
And it’s not like this is just a game-script thing either. In that Bengals game, they were letting Ben drop back plenty in the second half despite being up by at least two touchdowns the entire time. That led to him racking up 431 air yards, easily surpassing the 397 from Drew Lock for the Week 10 high mark.
It is tough to get too crazy excited about Ben from a DFS perspective on a week-to-week basis since he doesn’t offer the rushing upside like a lot of these other quarterbacks we like to target. But if there is ever going to be a matchup for an absolute monster ceiling game from him, it is this week against Jacksonville. Through 10 weeks, only the Falcons and Seahawks have allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Alex Smith
NFL Team: The Washington Football Team
Pass Attempts: 55 in Week 10
Air Yards: 324 in Week 10
Air Conversion (PACR): 1.20 in Week 10
I mean, I can only imagine that Alex Smith has had his shoulder wrapped in ice ever since their game against Detroit ended on Sunday. 55 pass attempts? I stopped looking through his game logs at around year 2016 looking for a game in which he threw more than that. But alas, I did not come across one.
This of course was way more game-script-related, as WFT was down two touchdowns at halftime and then let Detroit score another TD on their first drive of the second half. But this is often a team that finds themselves trailing anyways. After all, they do throw the ball at the fourth highest rate in the league (63%).
The hilarious part of all of those passing attempts against Detroit is that exactly zero of them found the end zone despite Washington scoring 27 points. When they got close to the goal line, they were successful on some short yardage rushing attempts. So it’s crazy to think what Smith’s box score would look like with a handful of passing touchdowns.
Going forward, he will need that high-level of passing volume to remain fantasy-relevant since he, too, doesn’t really offer any rushing upside. After that injury he suffered, I’m guessing he wants to stay in the pocket as much as humanly possible. Luckily though, he is still pretty cheap on both sites. For Week 11, he is $6,600 on FanDuel and $5,300 on DraftKings.
Daniel Jones
NFL Team: New York Giants
Pass Attempts: 28 in Week 10
Air Yards: 237 in Week 10
Air Conversion (PACR): 1.03 in Week 10
Rushing Yards: 64 in Week 10
If you are looking for a quarterback that does have some rushing upside though, look to Daniel Jones. After three (designed) rushing attempts in Week 7 and two in Week 8, he has totaled 13 in the past two weeks. And this past Sunday, one of those resulted in a 34-yard scamper for a score early in the game.
Jones has also looked a little better throwing the ball recently. Over his past two games (against Washington and Philly), he has completed 71% of his passes. His 1.17 PACR in Week 9 was his second best of the season, while his 1.03 in Week 10 is tied for his fourth-best.
Jones hasn’t shown the same fantasy upside as he did last year, but that isn’t to say he doesn’t still have it in him. At this point in the season, he is basically an afterthought at the quarterback position. But if you are looking for low-owned guys that have that passing/rushing upside, he could be your guy. He is usually pretty cheap too. I’ll be curious to see where he is priced when the Giants come out of their Week 11 bye.