Week 1 NFL DFS RB Breakdown: DraftKings Projections, Values, & Sleepers
I was told that RBs don’t matter. I’ll leave that debate for Stephen A, Skip, and all the First Take clones but what does matter is daily fantasy sports and in DFS we live in the world of a salary cap. We can’t just plug in the top 3 RBs on a given week so we must find the best values and sleepers to help us find the salary to splurge on our favorite, pricy QBs and WRs.
In this article I will highlight the best value and sleeper running backs in a given week. Note that the “sleepers” are probably best unleashed in large field tournaments as they will have a higher fail rate while likely landing in significantly fewer lineups. That said let’s get to some of my favorite targets in Week 1 of the NFL DFS season.
Week 1 DraftKings Projections — Running Backs
- Jamaal Williams (5.1k) – 17.52 projected fantasy points (note this projection assumes Kendre Miller (currently Q) is OUT)
- Kenneth Walker (6k) – 14.93 projected fantasy points
- Rachaad White (5.5k) – 13.08 projected fantasy points
- Deon Jackson (4.1k) – 11.34 projected fantasy points
- Raheem Mostert (5.4k) – 13.13 projected fantasy points
I’m pushing the limits of the term “value” play by listing 6k “(player-popup #kenneth-walker-iii)Kenneth Walker III here, but assuming he is fully good to go after dealing with a groin for much of training camp, this is a very fair asking price. Being the lead back for a big home favorite correlates well with fantasy success as Walker takes on a Rams defense, that yes, has Aaron Donald, but he turns into Will Smith all alone in his living room as he tries to find a competent defensive teammate.
The Saints will for sure be without suspended Alvin Kamara and rookie Kendre Miller knee will likely hold him out as well. If that is the case that leaves Jamaal Williams, the defending NFL TD leader, well positioned to eat.
The absence of Jonathan Taylor leaves us with a murky situation in Indy. Deon Jackson is super cheap and projects to get more run than Evan Hull. There is a chance teammate Zack Moss heals up and is available to play which can muck up the situation to the point where no one looks especially appealing. This is a situation that needs to be monitored as the week progresses.
Top DFS Sleepers
- Samaje Perine (5.1k) – 12.15 projected fantasy points
- Zach Charbonnet (4.8k) – 6.9 projected fantasy points
What if Seattle isn’t ready to fully unleash “(player-popup #kenneth-walker-iii)Kenneth Walker III after dealing with a nagging groin for a chunk of training camp? Charbonnet is the shiny new toy in Seattle as the Seahawks selected him in the 2nd Round of the most recent NFL Draft. He’ll certainly have a role, but what if it is bigger than most suspect? Week One is one of if not the best time to throw darts at speculation as while we may think we know what teams will do, we haven’t yet seen it.
Similar to the Charbonnet thought process, the raw talent of Javonte Williams is undeniably more tantalizing than teammate Samaje Perine, but you have to remember it was less than a year ago Williams tore his ACL, LCL, and PLC. His speedy recovery has been remarkable, but you can tell yourself a story that Denver won’t entirely push him to start the season, and the Broncos liked Joe Mixon former backup enough to acquire him in the offseason. Perine will almost definitely get the smaller piece of pie in the Bronco backfield, but he should have a meaningful role and at least a chance to make an impact on the DFS slate.
Feel free to follow me @DFS_Almanac and tell me what you agree/disagree with and who I left off the list. The Rotogrinders team (including myself) will be live on the Rotogrinders Youtube channel every Sunday at 9:30AM breaking down the main NFL DFS slate and all the late breaking news right up to kickoff.
Please note that as more information and news breaks the closer we get to kickoff, projections are subject to change. Make sure to sign up for RG Premium to get the most accurate information and projections.