NFL DFS Role Change Report: Reviewing Week 6
The snap counts, targets, air yards, and usage statistics we see for NFL players has a significant impact on our decisions for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. NFL DFS is a game where opportunity is king, and it is important for us to know if the situation has changed for any of the players. Each week in NFL DFS will show us a few players who have changes in their snap percentage and other key stats. In this article, we will look back how these stats could impact future projections and projected ownership. Let’s use the RotoGrinders Usage App from JoshADHD to rewind and take stock of how usage for a few players changed this week in NFL DFS.
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Today’s NFL DFS Snaps, Targets, and Air Yards Change Report
Devonta Freeman
NFL Team: New York Giants
Position: RB
Snap Percentage: 29% in Week 3; 54% in Weeks 4 and 5; 73% in Week 6
Key Running Game Usage Stat: 63% rushing market share in Week 5; 72% rushing market share in Week 6
As you can see, Freeman has slowly but surely taken over the reigns in the Giants backfield. That being said, more opportunity doesn’t always mean that the fantasy points will follow, especially when you are a running back on the New York Giants and your name is not Saquon Barkley.
The Giants offense as a whole is tied for last in the NFL in average yards per game (275.3) and is third from last in average rushing yards per game (87.8). For his part, Freeman has mustered up only 164 yards on his 51 carries through four games, which is just 3.2 yards per carry.
He has been able to maintain a 10.7% market share of targets over the past three weeks, and that passing game involvement will be needed going forward from a fantasy perspective if the Giants continue to struggle to score. Freeman will never be a sexy name to roster in DFS, but he will usually be pretty cheap as a result. For instance, he was only $4,900 on DraftKings in Week 6.
Justin Jefferson
NFL Team: Minnesota Vikings
Position: WR
Snap Percentage: 77% in Week 4; 80% in Week 5; 89% in Week 6
Key Passing Game Usage Stat: 5 targets a piece in Week 4 and Week 5; 12 targets in Week 6
With his 11 catches for 166 yards and two touchdowns, Jefferson was obviously a slate-winner in Week 6 as leverage off of his extremely chalky teammates (Mattison, Thielen).
We have seen similar spikes in his production like this once before this season in Week 3. In that game against the Titans, he put up seven receptions (on nine targets) for 175 yards and one score. Even though Thielen still dominates the market share of targets on this team (30.7%), the 21.5% for Jefferson isn’t exactly anything to sneeze at (roughly Top 30 in the league). He is also right around that range in average market share of air yards (28.4%).
It will be interesting to see where the sites price him coming out of Minnesota’s Week 7 bye. They will get to face a Packers team that was 29th in defense DVOA (and 25th in pass defense DVOA) before getting slaughtered 38-10 by the Buccaneers.
D’Andre Swift
NFL Team: Detroit Lions
Position: RB
Snap Percentage: 38% in Week 4; 38% in Week 6
Key Passing Game Usage Stat: 12.2% market share of targets on the season; only 4% for Adrian Peterson
Key Running Game Usage Stat: 20% rushing market share in Week 4; 36.8% rushing market share in Week 6
Despite playing only 38% of the running back snaps in Detroit’s last two games, this was the first time he has led the Lions in RB snap percentage since Weeks 1 & 2. While the Lions seem content on deploying a three-headed monster at running back on a weekly basis, the hope is that Swift forces the coaching staff’s hands a little bit with his play.
His performance in Week 6 against the Jaguars would certainly make for a nice springboard for that to come to fruition. He racked up 116 yards and two touchdowns on his 14 carries, while Adrian Peterson got just 40 yards on his 15 carries (which included a touchdown from the goal line that Dean could have scored on). Swift also saw four targets, despite not doing much with them (3 catches, 7 yards).
On tap for the Lions in Week 7 is a matchup against a Falcons defense that was giving up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing running backs prior to Week 6. Even after his big game this past Sunday, Swift is only priced at $6,100 on FanDuel and $5,400 on DraftKings for this tasty matchup against Atlanta.
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