NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report: Week 11
Does defense matter in NFL DFS? It’s certainly not as influential in between the margins as we once thought, but there is still value on the extremes. When we find the soft spots, we can sometimes capitalize on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using GridironIQ, we can easily locate teams that present an enhanced probability of fantasy point production.
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In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can layer on a level headed review of run game matchups to help us make our choices for Sunday’s daily fantasy football contests. Let’s take a look at some top matchups for this coming week.
Week 11 NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report
Dalvin Cook
Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
Rush DVOA (Rank): 28th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 5th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 2nd
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 16th
If you just look at this matchup from a “fantasy points allowed to position” perspective, it just looks middling. The Cowboys have only allowed the 16th most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. However, most of the other metrics have this matchup popping in a big way for Cook (not that he needs it or anything).
This Cowboys defense ranks 28th in Rush Defense DVOA. They have allowed the second most rushing yards in the league. On top of that, they are fifth highest in Expected Points Added (EPA) against the rush.
What all of that says to me is that this Dallas defense has some nasty negative regression heading their way. And now they have to face one of the best backs in the league!? I will go out on a limb and say that, after Week 11 is finished, the Cowboys will “move up the ranks”, so to speak, in terms of most fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Mike Davis
Opponent: Detroit Lions
Rush DVOA (Rank): 27th
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 2nd
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 3rd
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 1st
The Detroit Lions, on the other hand, are giving out fantasy points to opposing running backs like they are going out of style. According to our Defense vs. Position tool, they have allowed 35.89 DraftKings points per game. Second place is the Green Bay Packers, all the way down at 31.51 per game.
Some of the biggest running back performances this season have come against Detroit. Dalvin Cook got them for 206 yards and two touchdowns in Week 9. The one big ceiling game from Aaron Jones came against them back in Week 2. He had 168 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, 68 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown in that game, which led to 48.6 DraftKings points.
Heck, even timeshare backfield have crushed them lately. They gave up 22.5 DraftKings points to Antonio Gibson and 17.9 to J.D. McKissic last week. The Colts running backs did something similar in Week 8. Nyheim Hines had 21.2 DraftKings points, while Jordan Wilkins chipped in 20.3.
Everywhere you look, this turns up as the best possible spot for opposing running backs. And that is a good thing for Davis, who has failed to crack double-digit DraftKings points in his last four games (CMC only played in one of those too). If there is a better get-right spot for a running back, I’d sure like to see it.
Duke Johnson
Opponent: New England Patriots
Rush DVOA (Rank): 31st
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 11th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 9th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 14th
Like Davis, Duke Johnson was another chalky guy that failed in Week 10 and could use a get-right spot. And while it may not be as good as “against Detroit”, the Patriots have been a far better matchup this year compared to recent seasons.
In 2019, no team allowed fewer fantasy points per game to opposing running backs than the Patriots. This season they have allowed the 14th most. And while that number may not blow you out of the water, it certainly helps when you see that they are second to last in Rush Defense DVOA. By comparison, they finished eighth in that metric in 2019.
The one thing we know for sure is that, with David Johnson out a few more weeks, this is Duke’s backfield. He played on 95% of the snaps in Week 10, so I don’t see any reason why that would change in Week 11. We’ll obviously need him to be way more effective with his touches though, so hopefully a boost in matchup will help in that regard.
Image Credit: Imagn
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