NFL DFS Stack Spotlight: Week 9
Stacking is an essential part of NFL DFS. Each week it is important that we identify the best available correlations and apply them carefully to our DFS lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. The RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer has a stacking feature we can use to locate high quality options each week, and we’ll use it now to discuss three of the top options from our NFL projections. We can then compare that to the projected ownership to help make our decisions for daily fantasy football.
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Week 9 DFS Stacks Report
Arizona Cardinals
Top Players to Stack: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Chase Edmonds
Projected Fantasy Points: 54.71 FanDuel/Yahoo, 62.47 DraftKings
Opponent: Miami Dolphins
Top Bring Backs: DeVante Parker, Preston Williams
Expected Ownership: high
This trio projects for the most fantasy points in our Stack Finder in LineupHQ amongst a QB + 2 RB/WR/TE. And while I have their expected ownership listed as high, a lot of that is weighted just towards Chase Edmonds (since we are assuming Kenyan Drake is out). However, if you look at just Murray and Hopkins, the Projected Ownership (pOWN) drops quite a bit.
Murray: 8.38% pOWN on FanDuel; 5.1% pOWN on DraftKings
Hopkins: 9.54% pOWN on FanDuel; 10.3% pOWN on DraftKings
So while I think Edmonds will be chalky (and for good reason), there are certainly ways you can go here if you want to be a little different in tournaments. For one, you can just stack all three of them together. I don’t mind including Edmonds in there since he is far more involved in the passing game (13.1% market share of targets) than Drake (4.4%).
The other thing to do is just fade the Edmonds chalk and do a Murray/Hopkins mini stack. Clearly, there are far more popular options at these two positions on the Week 9 slate, but even these two guys on their own have some of the highest ceilings at their respective positions. Stacking them together at low ownership though? Yes please.
Kansas City Chiefs
Top Players to Stack: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce
Projected Fantasy Points: 51.37 FanDuel/Yahoo, 59.88 DraftKings
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Top Bring Backs: Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore (CMC might be a tad unrealistic)
Expected Ownership: low
When I use the Stack Finder to find the top QB + 2 RB/WR/TE stacks and then sort by ‘Projected Ownership – High to Low’, it is laughable at how far down you have to scroll until you get to these three guys.
Yes, I am well aware that they are expensive. But guess when else they were expensive? Last week agains the Jets, when Mahomes and Kelce were the highest fantasy scorers at their position (using DraftKings scoring), with poor Tyreek Hill being ‘just’ the fifth highest scorer at wide receiver. I am guessing you won a lot of money if you stacked these three guys last week, and now Week 9 is shaping up for them to have similarly low ownership just one week after they won people tournaments.
It is going to be a stretch to make the rest of the roster work due to their price tags, but that is what we have MrTuttle05’s Value Play filters for in LineupHQ! Lo and behold, he has a Panthers player tagged as a Value Play on DraftKings, lining up just perfectly to bring it back for a nice little game stack.
Houston Texans
Top Players to Stack: Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks
Projected Fantasy Points: 47.27 FanDuel/Yahoo, 54.44 DraftKings
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Top Bring Backs: James Robinson, DJ Chark
Expected Ownership: medium
Ok, let me be somewhat basic here and just list off a few things I am seeing.
1) This Texans team essentially has the highest implied total on the slate of anyone not named the Chiefs.
2) They are going up against a Jags defense that ranks dead last in Pass Defense DVOA and has the third highest Expected Points Allowed (EPA) via the pass.
3) The Jags defense has allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
4) And while they have ‘only’ allowed the 14th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, I think a good chunk of it is due to some positive touchdown variance. They have only allowed six touchdowns to the position, which is tied for the sixth fewest in the league. Yet all of the other metrics say they are awful against the pass.
Quite simply, I think this stack is not going to be highly enough owned.,
And for what it’s worth, I have no issues at all stacking the three of them together. The Texans throw at the second highest frequency in the league, and Fuller and Cooks are clearly Watson’s two favorite targets. They lead the team in market share of targets, as well as market share of air yards.
If you recall, it was only two games ago in which they gave everyone a glimpse of their ceilings. Against the Titans, Watson had 35 DraftKings points, Fuller had 27.3, and Cooks had 21.8. When factoring in salary and Projected Ownership, this is in contention for my favorite stack of the week.