NFL DFS Stud RB Spotlight: Week 12 Projections
Projections are live, and we’re looking ahead to Sunday’s main slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer, we can identify some top quality stud running backs for the week with ease.
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In this article, we’ll leverage the projections we create for daily fantasy sports to discuss a few high priced backs we should target. We’ll also take a look at some high priced players who have some concerns. We’ll be able to hold these evaluations up against projected ownership to make some key decisions later in the week.
Week 12 NFL DFS Running Back Report
Dalvin Cook
NFL Team: Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 25.99
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 21.96
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 21.96
Cook continues to be on another level in his touch count, as his 32 (27 rushes, 5 receptions) in Week 11 make it three times in the past four weeks he has exceeded 30 touches. In that span, only one player has touched the ball more than 30 times. Josh Jacobs did it once in Week 8 (31 touches).
That type of volume gives him an absurd floor/ceiling combo that is, quite frankly, unmatched. You saw the floor in Week 10 against the Bears (15.2 DraftKings points), and you saw the ceiling the two weeks before that against the Lions (42.2 DraftKings points) and the Packers (51.6 DraftKings points).
So it should come as no surprise that he is basically doing laps around the other running backs on this slate in terms of projection. We currently have him almost five FanDuel points ahead of the next closest running back, the aforementioned Jacobs. And Cook is almost four FanDuel points ahead of the next closest skill position player, Davante Adams.
While it’s hard to argue he’s not worth it, especially in a friendly matchup against Carolina, you are going to pay through the nose for it on FanDuel. I am almost certain that the $11,000 price tag is the highest I have seen all season.
Josh Jacobs
NFL Team: Las Vegas Raiders
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 19.38
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 17.04
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 17.04
Jacobs tops that next tier of running backs below Cook in terms of projection. And on top of that, he comes at a steep discount to Cook as well. You have $3,000 on FanDuel and $2,300 on DraftKings by opting for Jacobs instead of Cook.
The one big drawback with Jacobs is that he still isn’t involved that much in the passing game. For example, he has had exactly one target in three of the last four games.
The flip side of that is you are getting the lead back in an offense implied to score 29+ points against Atlanta. And he is a back who gets the ball quite frequently the closer they get to the end zone. Inside the 20-yard line, the 41 rushing attempts by Jacobs are surpassed only by Todd Gurley (42) and Derrick Henry (46).
So while this Atlanta defense has made huge strides defending the running back position, that doesn’t mean we should avoid rostering anyone against them. If you want to get some exposure to one of the highest team totals on the main slate, I think this would be a good place to start.
Alvin Kamara
NFL Team: New Orleans Saints
Opponent: Denver Broncos
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 18.95
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 15.43
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 15.43
If you had worries heading into Week 11 about what Kamara’s role was going to be with Taysom Hill under center, what happened in that game against Atlanta isn’t going to ease your concerns at all. Instead of trying to artfully navigate all of these concerns into some pretty paragraphs, how about instead I just list all of them in a row?
1) The Saints passed the ball on just 42% of their plays. By comparison, that number is around 54% for the season (which includes Week 11, too).
2) Kamara saw one target last week. One!!! In seven of his other nine games this season, he had at least 8. The low points? Four in Week 4 and six in Week 9. This was a guy who was 11th in market share of targets amongst all skill position players in Weeks 1-10, and in Week 11 he was basically an afterthought in the passing game.
3) For whatever reason, Latavius Murray out-snapped Kamara 33 to 32 against Atlanta. I suppose some of that was because they kept pounding the ball on the ground in the fourth quarter with a two-touchdown lead. But still, not a good sign in my opinion.
My guess is that Sean Payton is going to spend all week figuring out how to get Kamara the ball more, but there may be only so much he can do with a different quarterback under center. The worst part is, you aren’t getting any sort of discount on Kamara either yet. He is the second most expensive running back on the Week 12 main slate on both FanDuel ($8,600) and DraftKings ($8,200).