NFL DFS Stud WR Spotlight: Week 9 Projections
Player projections are set for this week, and our sights are now set on Sunday’s main slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. The time is now to unleash the RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer to discover the top projected wide receivers on the week. In this article, we will use the DFS player projections we create to discuss some high priced pass catchers with strong outlooks this week. We’ll also examine a high priced receiver who has some downside as well.
Let’s get busy analyzing the slate, so that we can use projected ownership to make some key decisions later in the week.
- Build DFS Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
- NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA
Week 9 NFL DFS Wide Receiver Report
DeAndre Hopkins
NFL Team: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: Miami Dolphins
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 20.45
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 16.8
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 16.8
Hopkins comes out of his Week 8 bye sporting the third highest market share of his team’s targets in the entire league. His 31% is just slightly behind the 32.3% of Davante Adams and the 31.9% of Jamison Crowder (does that one even count?). He has seen double-digit targets in three games (16, 12, 12). He has not been below seven targets in the other four games (9, 9, 7, 8).
If we are picking nits, it’s that Hopkins has only found the end zone three times this season. For whatever reason, Kyler Murray has looked to Christian Kirk slightly more than Hopkins as they get closer to the goal line. For example, Kirk has five targets inside the 10-yard line, and he converted all four of his catches into touchdowns. Hopkins has just three targets, with the end result being two receptions and just one touchdown.
Ultimately, I will always lean on this massive volume when looking to pay up at wide receiver. And with Davante Adams not on the main slate this week, Hopkins is looking like the top stud at this position according to our projections.
Julio Jones
NFL Team: Atlanta Falcons
Opponent: Denver Broncos
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 19.83
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 16.13
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 16.13
Consider for a second that Julio is getting those above projections with us currently having Calvin Ridley as available. What the heck are those going to look like if Ridley is ruled out this Sunday due to his foot sprain?
After batting a hamstring injury early in the year, I don’t think I am exaggerating when I say that he has looked like the Julio of old once he actually took the requisite time off to heal the injury. Ever since he sat out Week 5, he has essentially played at least 80% of the snaps in each of the last three games. In addition, he has received between 9-10 targets in each of those three games.
The end result in the box score in those three games? 23 receptions, 371 yards, 2 TD
So if Ridley can’t go this weekend, Julio could easily be looking at 11-12 targets. And as you can see, we shouldn’t be shy about deploying him this weekend even if Ridley plays.
And don’t forget, as we get further and further into the colder months, the benefit of Atlanta playing their home games in a dome can’t be understated. That will be the case in Week 9, as the Falcons are home against a Broncos team that just gave up monster receiving games to Mike Williams (5 receptions, 99 yards, 1 TD) and Keenan Allen (9 receptions, 67 yards, 1 TD).
A.J. Brown
NFL Team: Tennessee Titans
Opponent: Chicago Bears
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 15.59
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 12.93
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 12.93
Brown probably qualifies as a “stud” receiver more on FanDuel, where his $7,600 price tag is the seventh most expensive on the slate. By comparison, his $6,600 price tag on DraftKings is just the 12th most expensive.
I think Week 9 might be the week to hop off of Brown for a week. His game log looks fantastic, in large part due to the fact that he has caught five touchdown passes in the past four games. At the very least, you’d have to think he sees some regression in that department sooner rather than later.
And since his price continues on the rise due to these big games, it has come to a point where he might not be worth paying this much for in such a tough matchup. The Bears have been extremely stingy to opposing wide receivers, allowing the third least fantasy points per game to the position.
A lot of that stinginess is due to the fact that they have only allowed two receiving touchdowns to the position all season. So we have a guy who might be due for some negative touchdown regression going up against a defense that barely ever allows them to begin with. Unless the Projected Ownership is wildly low on Brown this week, I think I will be looking elsewhere in this price tier at wide receiver.
Image Credit: Imagn